Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 14/12/2025 12:40Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (12:35Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Ballistic Threat Termination: The immediate, urgent ballistic missile threat issued for Northern Ukraine at 12:06Z has been terminated ("All clear" issued).
• (12:36Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) KAB Threat Expansion (Chernihiv): Russian forces initiated Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting the Chernihiv region, expanding the geographic scope of the KAB strike campaign outside previously saturated areas (Donetsk/Kharkiv boundary).
• (12:26Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) UAF Logistical Deep Strike: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) confirmed successful use of FP-2 strike UAVs overnight (Dec 14th) to interdict and strike an RF logistical train at an unspecified location.
• (12:27Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) RF Heavy Airlift Loss: An RF Ministry of Defense An-22 heavy transport aircraft crashed fatally in Ivanovo Oblast (RF deep rear), resulting in zero survivors and severely disrupting immediate heavy airlift capacity.
• (12:11Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH) Zaporizhzhia CIK Damage: The recent strike on Zaporizhzhia city resulted in 11 confirmed casualties (increased assessment) and disrupted power for over 1000 subscribers in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• (12:32Z, STERNENKO, LOW) Siversk Criticality: An urgent appeal warned of a CRITICAL SITUATION IN SIVERSK, suggesting high-intensity fighting or an immediate RF breakthrough threat. (UNCONFIRMED tactical status).

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Kinetic Operations (Air/Missile/Drone): The enemy successfully executed a rapid escalation/de-escalation cycle, immediately terminating the high-risk ballistic threat (12:35Z) but immediately initiating a secondary wave of KAB and UAV strikes targeting a wider geographical area. The expansion of KAB launches into Chernihiv Oblast is a critical change in the threat environment, indicating RF now prioritizes saturation strikes deeper into the Northern sector rear.

Ground Operations: RF continues localized fixing attacks. Claims of action at Huliaipole are consistent with previous IO objectives. The unconfirmed "critical situation" at Siversk (12:32Z) represents the highest potential point of localized tactical danger and may signal an RF push designed to create favorable positions before any diplomatic breakthrough.

Logistics and Sustainment (MAJOR DEGRADATION): The loss of the An-22 (Ivanovo) is a quantifiable setback for RF military logistics, specifically the high-volume, long-range movement of equipment and personnel. When combined with the confirmed damage to two major refineries (previous sitrep) and the successful SSO strike on a logistics train (12:26Z), RF sustainment is under synchronized attack across tactical and strategic domains.

Command and Control / Intentions: RF intention is clearly to utilize air assets for immediate punitive action following UAF deep strikes, while simultaneously increasing pressure on the Eastern axis (Siversk, Huliaipole IO). The public signaling by Peskov (12:37Z) confirms RF demands explicit security guarantees against future sabotage of any diplomatic agreement, indicating a focus on securing political advantage during the Berlin meetings.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike / Tactical Success: The SSO confirmed the precision interdiction of a moving RF logistics train using FP-2 strike UAVs (12:26Z), demonstrating sustained UAF ability to disrupt tactical supply lines. The 67th Mechanized Brigade ("Iron Falcons") released combat footage confirming destruction of enemy personnel and defensive positions (12:19Z).

Diplomatic Maneuver: President Zelenskyy confirmed his arrival in Germany (12:25Z) to discuss security guarantees with the American negotiation team (12:30Z). This crucial high-level engagement directly supports the diplomatic pillar of UAF defense. Unconfirmed reports indicate a future visit to Poland (12:20Z), likely related to ongoing security or logistics support (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.005840 - Agreement on support with Poland).

Information environment / disinformation

The IO campaign is currently concentrated on undermining the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government leadership while they are engaged in critical high-level negotiations:

1. Corruption and Leadership Discrediting: RF channels (Op Z, Basurin) are heavily propagating narratives alleging widespread corruption and loss of public trust in the Zelenskyy government, leveraging comments made by Kyiv Mayor Klitschko (12:28Z). This aims to weaken Kyiv's negotiating mandate.
2. Peace Conditionality: Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov is utilizing state media (TASS) to set high-level diplomatic conditionality, stating Moscow demands a "system of guarantees" to prevent Kyiv from sabotaging future peace agreements (12:37Z). This frames Ukraine as untrustworthy in the diplomatic process.
3. Historical Revisionism: RF sources attempted to malign the UAF unit "Skala" (previously noted for its success near Pokrovsk) by drawing spurious comparisons to historical Nazism following a BBC interview (12:11Z), demonstrating targeted effort against successful UAF units.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Northern CIK Degradation & IO Push): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will maintain the expanded KAB and UAV pressure campaign targeting CIK nodes in the Northern Axis (Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv). This air campaign will be synchronized with a sustained, intense informational effort designed to distract from the diplomatic mission in Germany, focusing specifically on promoting narratives of internal UAF weakness, corruption, and tactical setbacks (Huliaipole).

MDCOA (Siversk Tactical Breakthrough): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF operational command may attempt to leverage the diplomatic window and the dispersed nature of UAF air defense assets (responding to new KAB threats) to launch a concentrated, localized ground assault aimed at achieving a structural breakthrough in the Siversk sector, as suggested by the urgent warning. If successful, this could threaten the flank stability of the Bakhmut-Kramatorsk defense line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements