Sitrep 2025-12-14 12:10:51

Situation Update (UTC 14/12/2025 12:10Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

(12:06Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Ballistic Missile Threat: An immediate threat of ballistic missile application has been issued for Northern Ukraine originating from the Northern direction. This suggests RF response to the confirmed UAF deep strike.
(11:40Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH) UAF Deep Strike Confirmed: Ukrainian forces confirmed successful long-range drone strikes overnight targeting at least two major Russian energy facilities: a large refinery in Southern RF and the Saratov Oil Refinery. This confirms the reciprocal deep strike capability reported as UNCONFIRMED in the previous sitrep.
(11:58Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM) Zaporizhzhia Civilian Target: Impact damage was reported to an ATB supermarket in Zaporizhzhia city. This confirms continued RF targeting of civilian infrastructure in the operational rear.
(11:45Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) Zelenskyy Elections Conditionality: President Zelenskyy publicly reiterated that elections are conditional upon security guarantees secured by international partners, aiming to preempt RF narratives of unilateral power retention during wartime.
(11:45Z, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ, MEDIUM) RF Internal Cohesion Crisis: A verified video appeal from a Russian serviceman detailed systematic abuse, extortion, and threats within the 164th Motor Rifle Regiment (MRR), indicating specific and severe internal discipline issues.
(11:54Z, Mash на Донбассе, HIGH) RF IO Counter-Campaign: RF state-affiliated media initiated a coordinated information warfare campaign attempting to discredit President Zelenskyy's recent visit to Kupyansk, alleging the video was fabricated or staged using drone footage as supposed proof.

Operational picture (by sector)

Sector	Current Status & New Activity	Confidence	Analysis
Northern Axis (Immediate Threat)	BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT declared from the North (12:06Z). This is the highest priority kinetic threat in the current time frame.	HIGH	RF is likely reacting to the confirmed UAF deep strikes by immediately raising the kinetic threat posture against UAF strategic centers.
Zaporizhzhia (City/Rear)	Missile/drone impact reported on civilian infrastructure (ATB supermarket) in Zaporizhzhia city (11:58Z). Varvarovka status remains UNCONFIRMED (P1 Gap).	MEDIUM	RF continues to strike non-military targets to inflict morale damage and humanitarian costs, maintaining pressure outside the immediate engagement zone.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk)	No new kinetic reports. RF Information Operations (IO) are actively attempting to discredit Zelenskyy's recent visit (11:54Z).	HIGH (IO focus)	This suggests the Kupyansk sector remains highly sensitive politically and operationally for RF, which is seeking to negate UAF successes and leadership optics.
Operational Rear (RF Territory)	UAF confirmed strikes on the Saratov Refinery and a major refinery in Southern RF (11:40Z, 11:42Z).	HIGH	Confirmed shift to reciprocal strategic degradation targeting RF energy supply chains. This aligns with the MDCOA of escalation.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Ground Operations: RF focus on Eastern Zaporizhzhia (Varvarovka) remains the stated ground priority in RF informational channels, but no new verifiable tactical gains are reported. The focus on attacking civilian targets (Zaporizhzhia ATB) suggests continued effort to terrorize the local populace and disrupt local logistics.

Air/Missile/Drone Threat (CRITICAL): The threat is currently CRITICAL and immediate due to the confirmed Ballistic Missile Threat from the North (12:06Z). This rapid escalation suggests a direct, pre-planned RF response cycle to UAF deep strikes.

Logistics and Sustainment: The successful UAF strikes on major oil refineries (Saratov and Southern RF) represent a significant potential long-term degradation of RF fuel and petrochemical supply chains. This will impact the ability of RF Southern Grouping of Forces (SGF) to sustain high-tempo mechanized operations (MLCOA: Adaptive Squeeze) in the medium term (weeks/months).

Command and Control / Cohesion (NEW VECTOR): The severe internal discipline issues reported within the 164th Motor Rifle Regiment (MRR) (extortion, physical abuse) confirm a continuing problem of low morale and poor command accountability within specific RF units. This information should be leveraged for PSYOPs targeting RF mobilized personnel.

Intentions: RF Intentions are to match UAF deep strikes with immediate high-value ballistic attacks, likely aimed at energy or military decision-making centers, while maintaining informational pressure to undermine UAF leadership (Kupyansk IO) during critical diplomatic meetings in Berlin.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Operations: UAF Systems Forces confirmed the execution of long-range UAV strikes on RF critical energy infrastructure, specifically the Saratov Oil Refinery and a large refinery in Southern Russia (11:40Z, 11:42Z). This establishes kinetic reciprocity for previous RF strikes against UAF energy infrastructure.

Diplomatic Posture: President Zelenskyy maintained a strong, domestically and internationally focused political posture by conditioning future elections on security guarantees provided by international partners (11:45Z). This counters the RF narrative that Kyiv is refusing democratic processes.

Tactical BDA: The Tactical Group Kryvtsov reported successful operations between December 10th and 12th, indicating sustained UAF tactical engagement and positive BDA in their operational sector (12:02Z).

Information environment / disinformation

The informational environment is characterized by immediate, localized RF counter-IO following the UAF deep strikes and diplomatic activity:

Denial and Discrediting (Kupyansk): RF channels (Mash, Kotsnews) are attempting to discredit President Zelenskyy's operational travel footage (Kupyansk) as fake or manufactured. This is a direct attempt to weaken his perceived operational grasp during crucial negotiations (11:52Z, 11:54Z).
Psychological Warfare (Atrocities): RF state media (TASS) and affiliated channels are circulating videos alleging UAF servicemen are abusing mobilized Ukrainians (11:44Z, 12:02Z). This aims to degrade international support and damage UAF credibility.
Global Event Exploitation: RF MFA (Zakharova) and milbloggers (Colonelcassad) continue to use the Sydney terror attack to push narratives linking the violence to Israeli actions in Gaza and radical Islam, deflecting global attention from the conflict in Ukraine and targeting Western unity (11:54Z, 12:03Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Reciprocal Kinetic Escalation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces are currently executing an immediate, retaliatory ballistic missile strike campaign against Northern and Central Ukraine (confirmed threat 12:06Z). This immediate kinetic response will target high-value strategic assets and CIK targets previously identified. RF will attempt to synchronize this air escalation with concentrated IO efforts designed to destabilize Ukrainian political optics during the Berlin meeting.

MDCOA (Strategic Infrastructure Grid Assault): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) In response to the confirmed damage to RF refineries, RF may significantly expand the use of long-range guided weapons (ballistics, cruise missiles) and Shaheds to inflict maximum damage on remaining major UAF power generation/transmission infrastructure, particularly in Central/Western Ukraine, to force a wider systemic failure before the end of the diplomatic window.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Priority	Gap Description	Requirement (Platform/Source)	Justification
P1 (URGENT)	Ballistic Strike BDA/Targeting. Determine specific targets of the currently active ballistic missile strike threat from the North.	AD INTEL, Ground Reporting (OVA/Police), SAR/IMINT post-impact.	Essential for assessing RF immediate retaliation calculus and protecting remaining CIK.
P1 (URGENT)	Varvarovka Status Confirmation. Confirm or deny RF physical control of Varvarovka (Zaporizhzhia region). (REITERATED)	Tactical ISR (UAV/EW SIGINT) focused on Vostok Group disposition south of Huliaipole.	Remains critical for UAF defensive line adjustment and countering RF information momentum.
P2 (PRIORITY)	RF Refinery Strike BDA. Confirm severity of damage to Saratov and Southern RF refineries.	OSINT/IMINT (Satellite imagery, internal RF social media reports) focused on operational status and visible damage assessments.	Required to quantify the impact on RF strategic fuel reserves and project timeline for logistics constraints.
P3 (PRIORITY)	164th MRR Disposition/Morale. Monitor the disposition and command effectiveness of the 164th MRR following the internal abuse report.	HUMINT/SIGINT, OSINT targeting RF soldier channels.	Assess potential for unit collapse or localized surrender/fragging risks.

Situation Report