Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 14/12/2025 11:35Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• (11:26Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH) US Compromise Proposal Revealed: President Zelenskyy disclosed that the US has proposed a framework for Donbas compromise involving UAF withdrawal, contingent on reciprocal RF forces not entering the vacated zone. The key unresolved question is the governance structure of this potential demilitarized zone and RF refusal to symmetrically withdraw.
• (11:19Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH) Ceasefire Status Quo Option: Zelenskyy confirmed the possibility of a "stand where we stand" option for a ceasefire in the Donbas.
• (11:23Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH) Zelenskyy Diplomatic Travel: President Zelenskyy is confirmed to be in Germany for meetings with EU/NATO leaders. He is also scheduled to visit Poland next Friday.
• (11:32Z, Rybar, LOW) Varvarovka Claim Reiterated: RF milbloggers (Rybar) re-emphasized the operational focus on "clearing" (Zaichistka Varvarovki) in the Eastern Zaporizhzhia direction. This repetition maintains the P1 URGENT requirement for UAF verification of RF control.
• (11:30Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, LOW) UAF Deep Strike Claim (UNCONFIRMED): RF sources claimed a massive UAF drone attack overnight (Dec 14th) targeting RF energy facilities. This claim is UNCONFIRMED but highlights the perceived threat of UAF deep strike capability against RF infrastructure.
• (11:15Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Odesa Air Threat Ongoing: The Air Force ZSU issued an update, confirming the Shahed UAV threat reported previously remains active, requiring ongoing AD response in the Southern Axis.

Operational picture (by sector)

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Ground Operations: RF forces continue to prioritize the claimed tactical breakthrough in Eastern Zaporizhzhia (Varvarovka). The repetition of this claim across multiple RF milblogger channels (Rybar, Poddubny) suggests a coordinated informational/psychological effort designed to fix UAF attention and prevent reinforcement of other critical sectors like Pokrovsk.

Air/Missile/Drone Threat: The threat level remains CRITICAL in the South, where the Shahed attack is ongoing (11:15Z). The alleged UAF counter-strike on RF energy infrastructure (11:30Z) suggests that the RF force protection posture for CIK (Critical Infrastructure Key resources) on its own territory may be vulnerable to UAF long-range UAVs.

Information Warfare/Hybrid Operations: RF Information Operations (IO) are deeply integrated with the diplomatic maneuvering:

1. Diplomatic Sabotage: RF sources are actively spinning Zelenskyy's confirmation of necessary compromises as a sign of weakness and failure to secure NATO membership (11:18Z).
2. Global Conflict Weaponization: RF IO continues the radical and antisemitic framing of the Sydney terror attack, attempting to link it to global political agendas and moralize violence against perceived enemies of RF interests (11:10Z, 11:20Z). This is a direct vector for targeting Western public opinion and dividing Ukrainian supporters.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Diplomatic Maneuver (Primary Operational Domain): UAF High Command is leveraging the current operational resilience (e.g., Pokrovsk counter-attack) to negotiate from a position of relative strength, despite acknowledging the need for "compromises."

• Key Negotiating Points (Confirmed): Willingness to discuss a status quo ceasefire line (11:19Z) and engagement on the US-proposed compromise for mutual disengagement in Donbas (11:26Z).
• Leadership Posture: Zelenskyy's willingness to hold elections contingent on security guarantees (11:31Z) aims to counter RF narrative that he is an "military dictator" (11:19Z).
• Travel: High-level engagement confirmed in Berlin and planned for Poland (11:23Z).

Kinetic Activity: UAF Air Defense is managing the ongoing UAV threat in the Southern Axis (11:15Z).

Information environment / disinformation

The informational environment is characterized by intense RF efforts to undermine diplomatic progress and project a false sense of territorial momentum.

• US Compromise Disinformation: The most immediate IO vector is the distortion of the US proposal for Donbas. RF sources will exploit the revealed compromise (UAF withdrawal without RF entry) to push narratives of unilateral Ukrainian surrender or Western betrayal, particularly focusing on the difficulty of governing the proposed buffer zone (11:26Z).
• Global Extremism Synchronization: The aggressive exploitation of the Sydney attack (11:10Z, 11:20Z, 11:22Z) demonstrates a coordinated effort to inject extreme, divisive socio-political narratives into the Western sphere, timed to coincide with high-level diplomatic meetings.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Diplomacy-Driven Kinetic Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will maintain focused kinetic pressure in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole/Varvarovka) and sustained UAV attacks on Odesa/Southern infrastructure throughout the Berlin negotiation window. The tactical goal is not necessarily a massive breakthrough but securing enough of a perceived victory (e.g., confirmation of Varvarovka) to influence the immediate negotiation stance.

MDCOA (Breakdown of Disengagement Proposal): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF rejects the reciprocal disengagement proposal (as framed by Zelenskyy regarding governance and mutual withdrawal distances) and instead initiates a high-intensity fire assault (either the delayed 260th GRAU artillery or expanded KAB use) against the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary to force a rapid, unilateral UAF retreat in the Donbas rather than a negotiated buffer zone.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements