Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-14T08:45Z PRIORITY: CRITICAL (RF continues integrated deep strike campaign, demonstrating operational expansion of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) utilization into critical operational rear areas (Odesa, Zaporizhzhia). The logistical continuity of the Southern Operational Zone is under immediate threat.)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KAB Campaign Expansion (South): UAF AF confirms new KAB launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (08:20:07, AFU AF, HIGH). RF also initiated KAB launches targeting Kharkiv Oblast (08:31:53, AFU AF, HIGH), confirming multi-axis saturation.
• Critical GLOC Targeted (Odesa): RF sources claim FABs with UMPK (KABs) were used for the first time against Odesa Oblast, specifically targeting the Zatoka railway bridge (08:33:01, Поддубный, LOW CONFIDENCE BDA). This GLOC is critical for external resupply from Romania.
• Infrastructure Collapse Confirmed: Widespread energy, heating, and water disruption confirmed across seven oblasts (Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Dnipro) following continuous RF strikes (08:11:08, Zelenskiy, HIGH).
• Scale of RF Air Campaign: President Zelenskyy reported that RF launched over 1500 strike UAVs and approximately 900 KABs against Ukraine this week (08:12:33, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH). This confirms an average KAB launch rate of ~128 per day.
• RF Tactical Claim (Zaporizhzhia): RF Vostok Group claims the capture of the settlement Varvarivka in Zaporizhzhia region (08:15:12, Воин DV, UNCONFIRMED, LOW CONFIDENCE).

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Odesa/Black Sea Coast)

The overnight massive drone attack (08:12:11, Odesa OMA, HIGH) inflicted widespread damage across energy, transport, and industrial infrastructure (08:35:30, ASTRA, HIGH). The unconfirmed, but highly specific, RF claim that KABs targeted the Zatoka railway bridge (08:33:01) represents a critical escalation. Destruction of the Zatoka bridge would sever the primary high-volume GLOC for heavy equipment and supplies entering the Southern OZ from Romania and the West, resulting in an immediate and severe operational delay (estimated 72h minimum for viable alternative routing).

Southeastern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)

The KAB threat is now confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (08:20:07). This kinetic pressure coincided with a confirmed morning attack on Zaporizhzhia City (08:25:49), and the UNCONFIRMED RF tactical claim regarding Varvarivka (08:15:12). UAF Southern Defense Forces report significant enemy losses, including a Tunguska AD system, indicating ongoing successful defensive engagements (08:26:07).

Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk)

Sustained KAB pressure on Kharkiv Oblast (08:31:53) continues to fix UAF AD resources and interdict Northern/Eastern GLOCs. The strategic logistical crisis stemming from previous KAB strikes on the Dnipro/Donetsk boundary remains the primary operational friction point, compounding the nationwide infrastructure crisis (08:11:08).

Northern Axis (Sumy)

Following the initial report of KAB expansion into Sumy, new reporting confirms continued kinetic pressure with a strike UAV heading toward Sumy City (08:23:22, AFU AF, HIGH). RF intent is to maintain pressure and possibly force UAF AD reallocations away from Eastern priority sectors.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

The primary threat is the RF strategy of Logistical Operational Paralysis, executed by leveraging overwhelming air power superiority for deep strikes.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are demonstrating persistent, high-volume asymmetric operations against RF logistics and rear area assets, evidenced by:

1. Confirmed blackout affecting 330,000 subscribers in occupied Kherson (08:32:03, ASTRA, HIGH).
2. High RF reports of UAF drone interdictions, implying hundreds of sorties targeting rear areas.
3. Successful defensive operations in the South, including the verified destruction of high-value RF assets (Tunguska AD system, tank).

UAF is managing the immediate aftermath of the massive infrastructure strikes across seven oblasts, focusing resources on restoration efforts, but facing operational challenges due to widespread power and transport outages.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO is capitalizing on kinetic events to achieve political goals:

• GLOC Justification: Explicitly justifying the targeting of the Zatoka bridge as a "logistic route for weapons" (08:33:01), setting a narrative for the escalation of strikes on critical infrastructure linking Ukraine to NATO members.
• NATO Disruption: Amplification of geopolitical tension via Hungarian PM Orbán's statement characterizing the use of frozen Russian assets as a declaration of war (08:19:01), aiming to inject further friction into EU/NATO decision-making processes regarding aid.
• Hybrid Operations Focus: Confirmation of an FSB espionage network in Austria posing as "Ukrainian Nazis" (08:33:50, UNCONFIRMED MEDIA), highlighting RF efforts to sow chaos and discredit UAF supporters in Western capitals (DS belief 0.132010).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Targeted Logistical Destruction): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF tactical aviation will prioritize confirmatory KAB strikes (or switch to cruise missiles/Iskander if KAB BDA is poor) against the Zatoka railway bridge and other critical logistics nodes in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF ground forces will maintain low-intensity fixing attacks in Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Varvarivka area) and Pokrovsk to gauge UAF resupply viability and defensive readiness.

MDCOA (Odesa GLOC Severance): (CRITICAL CONFIDENCE) RF successfully destroys the Zatoka railway bridge using KABs, immediately severing the primary high-volume logistics link from Romania to the Southern front. Simultaneously, heavy KAB strikes confirm the destruction of key rail hubs on the Dnipropetrovsk border, leading to a synergistic logistical failure affecting both Eastern and Southern operational zones within the next 24-48 hours. This paralysis enables a mechanized RF thrust either near Pokrovsk or toward Huliaipole.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The operational picture is now dominated by the confirmed expansion of the KAB threat into critical, deep operational rear areas. Priority shifts to BDA verification of these high-value strikes.