Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-14T00:10Z Focus: Confirmation of immediate kinetic effects from UAF deep strikes (Afipsky blackout). RF shifts tactical pressure via UAV saturation on the central and southern axes near the contact line, while the Odesa hybrid threat remains critical and imminent (NLT 140600Z).

Key updates since last sitrep

• Afipsky Blackout Confirmed: Localized power outage (blackout) reported in Afipsky settlement, Krasnodar Krai, corroborating BDA regarding disruptive effects of the previous UAF UAV strike. This validates the success of targeting high-value infrastructure. (23:50:44Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH confidence) (DS Belief in Energy Supply Disruption: 0.088886)
• RF UAV Activity (Zaporizhzhia): Enemy UAV activity confirmed targeting settlements in the Zaporizhzhia operational rear (Novomykolaivka, Ternuvate, Komyshuvakha), suggesting ISR or pre-strike positioning against UAF logistics supporting the Zaporizhzhia front. (23:44:36Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH confidence)
• RF UAV Vectoring (Donetsk): A group of enemy UAVs was detected in Donetsk Oblast, tracking South and specifically vectored toward Ukrayinsk, Shevchenko, and Bilytske. These targets threaten key operational logistics nodes supporting the Pokrovsk sector. (00:00:18Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH confidence)
• RF Airspace Adjustment (Unconfirmed Link): Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) were adjusted at Pulkovo Airport (St. Petersburg). This may signal RF domestic AD posture adjustment in response to the extended deep strike threat, but is UNCONFIRMED. (00:09:14Z, ТАСС, LOW confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Domain (RF Rear Area / Deep Strike)

The confirmed blackout in Afipsky validates the strategic impact of UAF deep kinetic operations. This infrastructure disruption (potential refinery or related power supply) directly exacerbates logistics strain identified in the previous sitrep, particularly impacting fuel distribution for the Southern Axis and forces supporting Crimea.

Southern Axis (Mykolaiv / Odesa / Zaporizhzhia)

The immediate Odesa hybrid threat remains the critical operational focus (T-minus 6 hours until the anticipated execution window closure). RF forces are actively increasing localized pressure on the Zaporizhzhia flank (Novomykolaivka vectoring) likely to fix UAF resources or confirm targeting data ahead of a coordinated push or large-scale fires delivery. The previously detected UAF UAV group over Mykolaiv (moving West) is still unconfirmed regarding its specific mission intent (P3 Gap remains critical).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk)

RF is applying tactical pressure via UAV saturation against specific UAF rear targets (Ukrayinsk, Shevchenko, Bilytske). These locations are critical nodes behind the Pokrovsk/central Donetsk front, suggesting RF aims to disrupt UAF C2 and resupply following the successful UAF counter-attack by "Skelya 425."

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Logistics Deterioration (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed blackout in Afipsky (Krasnodar Krai) verifies that the UAF deep strike campaign is successfully generating friction in RF logistics, likely impacting energy supply crucial for refining and transport operations. This confirms the vulnerability of RF critical infrastructure beyond the immediate front lines.

2. Tactical UAV Saturation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF forces are leveraging UAVs to conduct high-tempo ISR and targeted strikes against specific UAF operational rear areas in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This rapid tactical reconnaissance is assessed as preparatory fire or confirmation of targeting coordinates for subsequent KAB or conventional artillery strikes intended to neutralize UAF consolidation efforts (e.g., following the Pokrovsk reversal).

3. Odesa Hybrid Threat (CRITICAL): No new indicators of execution were detected in this reporting period, but the time window for execution (NLT 140600Z) is nearly closed. The high probability of execution, leveraging systemic infrastructure failure, remains the highest priority threat.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF intelligence has successfully confirmed immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) following the Afipsky strike, validating operational planning and execution in the deep kinetic domain. UAF tactical forces are positioned to address the immediate UAV threat vectors in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, though C2 must remain highly vigilant against potential hybrid attacks on the Southern Axis.

Information environment / disinformation

RF state media (TASS) is promoting narratives focused on Western geopolitical fragmentation, specifically highlighting German political statements regarding the "end of Pax Americana." This narrative aims to sow doubt regarding the long-term sustainability of transatlantic support for Ukraine and may coincide with anticipated RF operational escalation (MDCOA).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Hybrid Strike and Tactical Disruption): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will initiate organized hybrid operations in Odesa before 140600Z, leveraging proxy assets to attack TCCs and police infrastructure. Simultaneously, RF aviation will follow up the confirmed UAV ISR missions in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia with massed KAB strikes (extending the previous focus on the Dnipro boundary) to capitalize on newly acquired targeting data and disrupt UAF resupply.

MDCOA (Immediate Southern Offensive and Hybrid Diversion): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF utilizes the Odesa hybrid operation as a massive diversionary effort, coupled with a renewed high-intensity ground attack on the Zaporizhzhia front (potentially focusing resources from the previously reported Huliaipole sector claim), aiming for a rapid, localized penetration to sever UAF command structures in the Southern Military District.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements