Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T23:59Z Focus: UAF deep strike operations demonstrate continued operational expansion, now impacting critical infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai (Afipsky). The Southern Axis remains the key point of friction as the critical window for RF hybrid operations in Odesa approaches (NLT 140600Z).

Key updates since last sitrep

• Afipsky UAV Incident: Confirmed UAV debris impact in Afipsky, Seversky district, Krasnodar Krai, RF. This extends the UAF kinetic threat geographically west and southwest toward key logistical nodes supporting Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) area of operations. (23:19Z, ASTRA, HIGH confidence)
• UAF UAV Group Movement (Southern Axis): A group of UAF UAVs was detected operating over Southern Mykolaiv Oblast, tracking westward. This movement suggests active ISR or pre-positioning ahead of potential operations linked to the anticipated Odesa hybrid threat execution. (23:34Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH confidence) (DS belief in Reconnaissance: 0.3351)
• RF ISR/Strike Promotion: RF IO channels promoted the operational use of the ZALA reconnaissance and strike UAV complex. This action is assessed as an effort to counter the narrative of UAF deep strike dominance by emphasizing RF tactical technological superiority and ISR capability at the contact line. (23:35Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Domain (RF Rear Area / Deep Strike)

The confirmed UAV penetration into Krasnodar Krai significantly increases the strategic strain on RF Air Defense (AD) posture. The Afipsky area, potentially targeting the local refinery or nearby military infrastructure, directly threatens fuel supply chains essential for the Southern and Crimean axes, complementing the disruptive effects of the Uryupinsk strike on the Eastern Axis. RF is now compelled to defend a geographically vast arc stretching from Krasnodar to Volgograd.

Southern Axis (Mykolaiv / Odesa)

UAF activity is high, evidenced by the western trajectory of the UAV group over Mykolaiv. This movement is assessed to be either aggressive ISR to confirm RF naval/ground positioning or a kinetic strike preparation against specific targets (e.g., ammunition depots, air defense systems) prior to the anticipated RF hybrid execution in Odesa (NLT 140600Z).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Volgograd Logistical Tail)

The tactical situation remains highly contested (Pokrovsk), but the strategic situation is fluid due to logistics vulnerability. The confirmed strikes in Volgograd (Uryupinsk) and Krasnodar (Afipsky) will require RF C2 to prioritize defensive measures and damage assessment over immediate offensive resupply, potentially reducing the operational tempo of mechanized thrusts planned for Pokrovsk and Kupyansk in the short term (T+6h).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Logistics and C2 Strain (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The combined deep strike campaign (Uryupinsk/Afipsky) forces RF command to make difficult choices regarding strategic AD allocation, particularly for high-value infrastructure. The immediate consequence is assessed as a potential degradation of fuel distribution fluidity across both the Southern and Eastern Military Districts.

2. Persistent Hybrid Threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Odesa threat remains critical. The intelligence window is closing (NLT 140600Z). RF preparatory ISR (previously reported Kherson activity) coupled with the strategic distraction of the deep strikes is consistent with a high probability of execution for organized proxy attacks leveraging civil unrest caused by infrastructure failure.

3. Counter-Narrative Shaping (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The prominent promotion of RF ZALA UAV capabilities serves a dual purpose: reinforcing RF forces in the tactical domain by highlighting air/ISR advantages, and distracting from the systemic failure of strategic air defense in the operational rear.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF maintains strategic initiative in the deep kinetic domain, successfully holding critical RF infrastructure at risk across multiple military districts. Tactical UAF forces are exhibiting proactive ISR/strike preparation on the Southern Axis, demonstrating responsiveness to the immediate RF threat profile.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO focuses on showcasing specific military technology (ZALA UAV) to normalize domestic military activity and counter the recent narrative of widespread UAF strike success. This effort aims to stabilize morale amongst frontline units facing deep strike logistical friction and assure the domestic population of continued battlefield advantage.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Coordinated Hybrid Strike and Logistics Defense): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will initiate organized hybrid operations targeting TCCs and police infrastructure in Odesa before 140600Z, attempting to disrupt UAF Southern logistics and command structure. Simultaneously, RF will prioritize immediate damage assessment and security hardening (AD reallocation and counter-UAV/sabotage measures) around high-value logistics nodes (refineries, rail hubs) in Krasnodar and Volgograd regions.

MDCOA (Retaliatory Escalation and Mass Denial): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF Command utilizes the confusion created by deep strikes and potential internal Odesa turmoil to execute massed, retaliatory missile and KAB strikes targeting key UAF C2 nodes and infrastructure (potentially including a feint or escalation involving ZNPP instability previously reported). The aim is to achieve systemic operational paralysis on the UAF Southern Axis.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements