Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T23:30Z Focus: UAF deep strike operations demonstrate expanded operational reach, impacting strategic logistics in the Russian Federation’s Southeast (Volgograd Oblast). RF forces maintain persistent ISR over the Kherson/Southern Axis as the Odesa hybrid threat window remains critical (NLT 140600Z).

Key updates since last sitrep

• Uryupinsk Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed attack on a fuel depot in Uryupinsk (Volgograd Oblast, RF) due to UAV debris, resulting in a fire. This confirms successful UAF UAS penetration significantly deeper and further southeast than previous strikes (Smolensk, Leningrad). (23:02Z, ТАСС; 23:04Z, ASTRA, HIGH confidence)
• Southern Axis ISR: UAF Air Force confirmed the detection of RF reconnaissance UAVs operating over Kherson Oblast, necessitating the activation of counter-UAV measures. (23:00Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH confidence)
• RF Internal Posture Shift: A high-level RF government message promotes the recording of blood type and Rh factor in civilian passports, suggesting an internal focus on mass casualty preparedness or preparation for future mobilization logistics. (22:45Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM confidence)
• RF Disinformation Campaign: Aggressive pro-RF propaganda targeted a Ukrainian civilian demonstration in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to discredit UAF defenders and undermine domestic morale. (22:56Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH confidence)

Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Domain (RF Rear Area)

The operational depth of the UAF kinetic threat has demonstrably expanded with the confirmed strike on the Uryupinsk oil depot. This asset is located hundreds of kilometers from the front lines and far removed from the previously targeted Western Military District (Smolensk, Pulkovo). This strike threatens the fuel supply chains supporting RF operations on the Eastern and Southern Axes (e.g., Rostov-on-Don logistics hubs). RF is now compelled to disperse AD assets across a wider, geographically challenging area.

Southern Axis (Kherson / Odesa)

RF reconnaissance UAV activity in Kherson (23:00Z) confirms sustained RF intelligence collection efforts along the Dnipro line. This ISR is likely preparatory for kinetic strikes or the anticipated hybrid destabilization operation in Odesa (MLCOA defined in PSR), utilizing the severe infrastructure damage previously reported. UAF forces are actively countering the ISR threat.

Eastern Axis (Volgograd Logistics)

While no new kinetic developments are reported at Pokrovsk or Kupyansk in this window, the Uryupinsk strike directly targets the logistics tails feeding these axes, potentially degrading RF maneuver capability and sustainment capacity within the next 48-72 hours.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Deep Strike Penetration & Logistics Vulnerability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The successful targeting of the Uryupinsk oil depot in Volgograd Oblast confirms that UAF deep strike capabilities now hold critical RF fuel supply infrastructure in the Southeast at risk. This forces a reallocation of strategic AD/EW assets away from the Northern/Central axis defense, potentially creating tactical opportunities elsewhere. The strike poses an immediate, albeit unquantified, threat to RF fuel sustainment.

2. Persistent ISR and Hybrid Shaping (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed presence of RF reconnaissance UAVs over Kherson indicates the adversary is actively assessing UAF disposition and preparation for the kinetic/hybrid phase of operations in the South. This ISR activity precedes the anticipated Odesa hybrid execution. (DS belief in RF Reconnaissance: 0.3697)

3. Internal Preparedness and Strain (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The TASS message regarding blood type documentation, coupled with existing intelligence on sustained casualty rates (DS Belief: 0.0917 Healthcare Overload), indicates that RF authorities are shifting the information environment to normalize high casualty figures and prepare the civil healthcare infrastructure for prolonged conflict absorption.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF offensive operations continue to dictate the RF defensive posture in depth. The Uryupinsk strike is a strategic success, widening the geographic area RF must defend and stressing already strained AD resources. UAF forces in the South are demonstrating rapid response capability against RF ISR platforms.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO channels are aggressively attempting to undermine civil support for UAF forces, specifically focusing on the idea that UAF personnel are sacrificial pawns, as seen in the smear campaign targeting the Zaporizhzhia demonstration. This indicates RF intent to foster division between the Ukrainian population and military leadership, complementing the kinetic/hybrid threat in the South. RF messaging regarding the deep strikes attempts to minimize the damage (e.g., "UAV debris" causing fires, no casualties) to maintain domestic confidence.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Odesa Hybrid Execution & Logistics Degradation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF command will execute organized hybrid destabilization operations in Odesa (attacks on TCCs/police) within the critical window (NLT 140600Z), capitalizing on C2 disruption and civil vulnerability caused by infrastructure failures. Simultaneously, RF will prioritize damage assessment and immediate defensive reinforcement of fuel logistics hubs in the Southeast (Volgograd/Rostov) in response to the Uryupinsk strike.

MDCOA (Pokrovsk Offensive amidst Deep Strike Chaos): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF Command utilizes the strategic distraction caused by widespread UAF deep strikes (Smolensk, Pulkovo, Uryupinsk) to reduce the tempo of UAF AD targeting and execute a major, KAB-supported mechanized thrust at Pokrovsk, aiming to fully negate the recent "Skelya 425" success before UAF can stabilize the line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements