Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-13T22:45Z Focus: UAF deep strike operations escalate, directly impacting strategic RF infrastructure and logistical hubs in the operational rear (Smolensk, Saint Petersburg). RF maintains kinetic pressure on Southern Axis GLOCs, with the Odesa hybrid destabilization window remaining critical (NLT 140600Z).
UAF operations are successfully forcing operational distraction and resource diversion deep into Russian territory. The reported attack on the Smolensk TPP (if confirmed BDA) and the flight restrictions at Pulkovo (a significant logistics hub) demonstrate a sustained UAF capability to hold high-value RF assets at risk. The restriction at Pulkovo is assessed as a reaction to potential or active UAS penetration, severely impacting RF ability to maintain normal air traffic control and security in the Northwest.
The situation remains dominated by RF kinetic shaping operations targeting critical infrastructure. Reports confirm continued infrastructure issues in Odesa and demonstrate UAF resilience in Kherson amidst the widespread power outages (22:13Z, 22:19Z). This confirms the operational environment is conducive for the anticipated RF hybrid destabilization campaign (MLCOA). UAF resilience messaging is actively countering RF influence operations in the region.
The Kupyansk sector remains highly contested, with RF claims of a successful nighttime engagement (22:35Z) suggesting attempts to negate the recent UAF tactical gains reported by the PDR. The primary RF focus remains on overwhelming logistics tails with KABs (as per PDR) and applying pressure at Pokrovsk to reverse the "Skelya 425" counter-attack. The brief reporting window shows no major changes at Pokrovsk.
The confirmed explosion in Sumy (22:37Z) indicates that the border oblasts continue to be subjected to localized kinetic strikes, potentially fixing UAF defensive resources away from the primary axes of attack (East/South). BDA is required to determine if this was a targeted strike on military/civil infrastructure.
1. RF Operational Tempo Diversion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces are now compelled to divert considerable resources (AD, EW, QRF/Internal Security) to secure deep rear areas, specifically the St. Petersburg region and key western energy hubs (Smolensk TPP). The imposition of flight restrictions at Pulkovo is highly disruptive to RF civilian logistics and a key indicator of heightened military alert status.
2. Persistent Hybrid Threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intent to initiate hybrid operations in Odesa is imminent (NLT 140600Z), capitalizing on the infrastructure failures (power/rail disruption). RF forces are awaiting optimal conditions (maximum darkness, C2 disruption, sustained civil unrest). The kinetic targeting of GLOCs has successfully isolated Odesa to an operationally relevant degree.
3. Counter-Pressure at Kupyansk (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF activity in Kupyansk (22:35Z) suggests immediate counter-response to UAF tactical success (PDR). RF seeks to restore control of drone "kill-zones" and re-establish pressure on the Oskil river line, tying down UAF forces necessary for the Pokrovsk defense.
UAF offensive strategy now includes decisive escalation in the strategic depth, forcing RF defensive measures at economically and militarily significant targets (Pulkovo, Smolensk TPP). This operation aims to disrupt RF logistical throughput, degrade internal morale, and divert strategic AD assets.
RF IO channels are confirming the reality of deep strikes in the western Military Districts, attempting to frame them as nuisance attacks on "energy facilities" (22:34Z). However, the Pulkovo closure represents a major failure in RF airspace security control and is inherently destabilizing to RF public confidence. UAF benefits from strong international diplomatic signaling (Starmer/VdL), reinforcing the narrative of protracted international support.
MLCOA (Odesa Hybrid Execution & Deep Strike Response): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF command will execute the organized hybrid destabilization operation in Odesa (attacks on TCCs/police/infrastructure repair crews) within the critical window (NLT 140600Z). Simultaneously, RF air defense and EW systems will be urgently reallocated westward to defend against further deep strikes, potentially creating tactical windows of opportunity for UAF air/maneuver forces along the Eastern or Zaporizhzhia fronts due to reduced RF AD density.
MDCOA (Pokrovsk Mechanized Thrust & ZNPP Diversion): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF follows through on the PDR MDCOA, utilizing the KAB saturation and reduced forward AD coverage to launch a major mechanized offensive at Pokrovsk (Eastern Axis) while leveraging the ZNPP power instability to create a radiological diversion (South). This action, combined with the Odesa hybrid operation, would maximize C2 paralysis for UAF High Command.
| Priority | Gap Description | Collection Requirement (ISR Tasking) |
|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Odesa Hybrid Execution Indicators: Immediate indicators of organized RF proxy groups preparing to physically attack TCC/Police infrastructure in Odesa. (Carried over from PSR) | Task SBU/National Guard HUMINT/SIGINT for verified reports of planned gatherings, specific targets, and logistical support. (Execution phase imminent) |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Huliaipole Verification: Verify/deny RF claims of a structural breakthrough at Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia Front). (Carried over from PSR) | Task high-resolution ISR (satellite/HALE UAV) over the suspected breach area. CONFIRM DENY NLT 140200Z. |
| P3 (URGENT) | Pulkovo Restriction Cause: Determine the specific cause for the flight restrictions at Pulkovo (UAS threat proximity, actual impact, or security exercise). | Task SIGINT/OSINT/ELINT (RF air traffic control, local channel reporting) to identify the specific incident that triggered the official action. Confirm NLT 140000Z. |
| P4 (PRIORITY) | Smolensk TPP BDA: Determine the extent of damage at the Smolensk TPP and its impact on RF energy supply to military/industrial consumers in the Western Military District. | Task GEOINT/IMINT (Satellite/OSINT imagery) for post-strike damage assessment of the facility. |
| P5 (PRIORITY) | Sumy Explosion BDA: Determine the target and nature of the strike in Sumy. | Task local HUMINT/UAF BDA reporting to confirm if the target was military (e.g., barracks, TCC) or civilian infrastructure. |
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