Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-13T22:15Z Focus: RF initiates kinetic shaping operations against critical logistics and sustainment infrastructure across the Southern Axis, specifically targeting railway GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) into Odesa Oblast, confirming the predicted escalation timeline for hybrid threats.
The focus has shifted decisively to the deep kinetic degradation of UAF rear support structures. The cancellation of Odesa rail services (21:54Z) is a tactical disruption that will constrain UAF's ability to reinforce or rapidly reposition materiel towards the front or port facilities. The simultaneous and widespread power outages across both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (21:47Z, 22:09Z) serve to compound the systemic failure risk, creating maximum vulnerability for the predicted RF hybrid operational window (NLT 140600Z). UAF defensive posture must now prioritize protecting remaining logistics hubs and railway repair crews.
The situation remains in the highly contested status established by the previous UAF success (SKELIA 425 Regiment). No new kinetic reporting in this short window, suggesting RF air assets are momentarily focused on the Southern Axis or reloading/repositioning for the predicted Pokrovsk mechanized counter-attack (P-SITREP MDCOA). The deep strike threat to Sloviansk/Kramatorsk remains the immediate baseline air threat.
1. Kinetic Linkage to Hybrid Operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces are executing the kinetic enabling phase of the Odesa destabilization plan. Targeting railway infrastructure is a deliberate action aimed at isolating the city and Odesa port complex, preventing external support and exacerbating the existing systemic infrastructure crisis (power/water loss, per PDR). This operational sequencing maximizes the potential effectiveness of RF proxy groups by creating chaos and hindering UAF/National Guard response efforts.
2. Focus on Strategic Attrition (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The simultaneous confirmed power grid failures in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (21:47Z, 22:09Z) indicate RF intent to apply attrition across the entire Southern flank, stretching UAF repair and AD assets thin. The RF attribution of the Kherson outage to a mere "accident" is highly suspect and likely a rhetorical denial of targeted kinetic strikes.
3. Intent to Disrupt GLOCs (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The railway disruption in Odesa is a critical escalation. Unlike previous strikes targeting localized administrative buildings, this action directly impairs military logistics flow (railhead operations) and civilian mobilization, fulfilling a key preparatory step for RF offensive or unconventional action in the region.
UAF authorities have acknowledged the necessity of altering suburban railway schedules due to combat action (21:54Z), indicating immediate operational adaptation to RF targeting of logistical networks. The primary focus for UAF forces must pivot to damage assessment and rapid infrastructure restoration protocols in Odesa Oblast to maintain GLOC integrity. UAF PSYOPs units continue generating defiant content (21:55Z), supporting troop morale amidst the renewed kinetic pressure.
The informational environment is currently saturated with localized impact reporting (power, rail disruption). RF IO channels (TASS) are utilizing controlled messaging regarding infrastructure damage in occupied territories (Kherson "accident," ZP "outage"), likely intended to mask the scope and source of the attacks while maintaining a narrative of internal instability or accidents in Ukrainian infrastructure. International reporting remains focused on ancillary diplomatic issues (Latvia/Poland, 22:01Z) and standard space activity (China, 22:03Z), providing a low noise floor for RF kinetic action.
MLCOA (Odesa Hybrid Escalation and Southern Isolation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will maintain kinetic pressure (UAS/Missile/Shelling) on remaining infrastructure, especially targeting key nodes in Odesa Oblast (railway junctions, repair depots, power/water facilities). The critical window for organized RF proxy activity (attacks on TCCs/police, leveraging the blackout and logistical isolation) is NOW (NLT 140600Z). This action aims to force UAF operational reserves to divert from the Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk) to stabilize the strategic rear.
MDCOA (Coordinated Southern/Eastern Offensive): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF initiates the long-anticipated mechanized counter-attack at Pokrovsk (Eastern Axis) simultaneously with the internal destabilization operation in Odesa (Southern Axis). This coordinated application of force (external maneuver + internal hybrid attack) would severely stress UAF C2 and logistical capacity, potentially leading to critical losses of key terrain along the Eastern front or loss of control over the Odesa strategic rear.
| Priority | Gap Description | Collection Requirement (ISR Tasking) |
|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Odesa GLOC Damage Assessment: Determine the extent of damage to railway infrastructure in Odesa Oblast (location, type of damage, projected repair time) and impact on military logistics throughput. | Task high-resolution ISR (UAV/Satellite) over Odesa rail corridors (especially feeder lines into the city/port). Task HUMINT/SIGINT for UAF repair assessments. CONFIRM DAMAGE NLT 140000Z. |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Huliaipole Verification: Verify/deny RF claims of a structural breakthrough at Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia Front). (Carried over from P-SITREP - CRITICAL GAPS REMAIN UNFILLED) | Task high-resolution ISR (satellite/HALE UAV) over the suspected breach area. CONFIRM DENY NLT 140200Z. |
| P3 (URGENT) | Odesa Hybrid Execution Indicators: Immediate indicators of organized RF proxy groups preparing to physically attack TCC/Police infrastructure in Odesa (critical timing: next 4 hours). | Task SBU/National Guard HUMINT/SIGINT for verified reports of planned gatherings, specific targets, and logistical support for potential unrest in the Odesa region. (Execution phase imminent) |
| P4 (PRIORITY) | Kherson Outage BDA: Determine if the Kherson power outages (13 districts) are due to targeted strikes, and assess military implications (e.g., loss of AD radar power, C2 relay stations). | Task SIGINT/OSINT/ELINT to identify strike remnants or unusual RF tactical aviation/UAS activity corresponding to the outage time (22:09Z). |
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