Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T21:45Z Focus: RF shifts immediate UAS kinetic focus to Sloviansk strategic depth; Zaporizhzhia air threat temporarily abated; ongoing RF IO linkage of air strikes to ground advance.

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAS Strike Confirmed (Sloviansk): RF military bloggers confirmed a Shahed/Geran UAS strike targeting infrastructure in Sloviansk, indicating RF intent to disrupt C2 and logistics hubs deeper into Donetsk Oblast. (21:15:05, Colonelcassad; 21:19:39, НгП раZVедка, HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Air Threat Concluded: The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, active since 20:47:00Z, was officially cancelled at 21:35:55Z, temporarily reducing the immediate air/missile threat to the Southern Axis rear. (21:35:55, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH)
• RF IO/PSYOPS (Sloviansk): Pro-RF channels immediately leveraged the Sloviansk strike to issue explicit threats that Russian ground forces would soon reach the city, attempting to undermine local UAF morale and confidence in defensive lines. (21:19:39, НгП раZVедка, HIGH confidence in IO deployment)
• RF Domestic Security (Non-Operational): Russian State media confirmed the detention of high-profile beauty bloggers in Adler for attempting to flee, indicating ongoing internal security measures or purges within the Russian Federation, but not directly impacting the conflict theater. (21:17:15, TASS, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Sloviansk)

The operational tempo remains focused on the Pokrovsk axis (UAF initiative remains the baseline, per P-SITREP), but RF has demonstrated intent to use long-range UAS to soften key administrative and logistics centers deeper in the operational rear. The UAS strike on Sloviansk (21:15Z) targets a critical hub for supporting UAF forces around Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, and Kramatorsk. This move is assessed as a preparatory step to degrade UAF ability to rapidly reinforce the front or an attempt to force the dispersal of high-value logistical assets.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia)

The immediate kinetic threat (missile/UAS) to Zaporizhzhia Oblast has momentarily passed (21:35Z). The critical vulnerability remains the Odesa infrastructure crisis and the high likelihood of RF hybrid attempts to incite unrest NLT 140600Z (P-SITREP MLCOA). The ongoing success of UAF AD/EW in managing incoming air threats is enabling the local authorities to stabilize the situation following the recent widespread air alerts.

RF Strategic Rear

RF continues to face minor setbacks in its strategic programs, evidenced by the postponement of the Proton-M rocket launch (21:31Z). This, combined with the earlier reported fuel train derailment (PDR), suggests friction in RF strategic logistics and technical readiness, though these factors do not immediately impact current front-line operations.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Intentions (Shaping Operations): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF forces are using Shahed/Geran strikes (21:15Z) to execute shaping operations against key UAF logistical and administrative nodes in anticipation of future ground offensives or counter-attacks near Pokrovsk. Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Dnipro remain prime targets for KAB/UAS strikes aimed at disrupting GLOCs.

2. Tactical UAS Employment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed strike on Sloviansk demonstrates RF’s continued reliance on low-cost UAS to achieve effects deep behind UAF lines, bypassing front-line air defenses. The immediate IO linkage (21:19Z) confirms that these strikes are intended to serve a psychological function as much as a kinetic one.

3. Hybrid Warfare Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The immediate threat of RF-backed hybrid escalation in Odesa remains the most critical non-kinetic threat. The RF operational model now explicitly links kinetic degradation (air/missile strikes) with psychological operations (PSYOPS) to prepare the ground for future RF ground objectives.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• AD/EW Effectiveness: The conclusion of the Zaporizhzhia alert without confirmed major incidents in the short reporting window suggests UAF air defense systems successfully mitigated the renewed air threat vector identified at 20:47:00Z.
• Sustained Initiative: The baseline context of the SKELIA Regiment maintaining tactical initiative at Pokrovsk remains the primary focus for UAF ground forces, pending identification of the predicted RF counter-reaction (PDR/P-SITREP).

Information environment / disinformation

The informational domain continues to be highly coordinated with kinetic operations.

1. PSYOPS (Threat Escalation): RF IO is now directly utilizing deep strike targeting (Sloviansk) to generate fear and panic, suggesting that areas previously considered safe from ground operations are now imminently threatened by RF advances. Intent is to distract UAF C2 and erode civilian morale in major urban centers.
2. Internal Narrative Cohesion: The internal RF messaging (MoD meeting video, 21:21Z) attempts to project an image of unified and competent military leadership, likely aimed at countering domestic perceptions of command instability following the recent ministerial changes.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Adaptive Air and IO Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will maintain high-volume UAS/missile targeting of UAF deep logistical and administrative hubs (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Dnipro area) to prepare the ground for future maneuver. Simultaneously, the hybrid threat in Odesa is reaching its critical window, with RF proxy actors expected to attempt to initiate physical unrest or attacks targeting TCCs/government infrastructure under the cover of darkness and infrastructure failure NLT 140600Z.

MDCOA (Pokrovsk Mechanized Counter-Attack): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF initiates the long-anticipated mechanized counter-attack to negate UAF SKELIA Regiment's gains at Pokrovsk. This attack will be supported by overwhelming KAB strikes against immediate UAF reserves and fire support positions, potentially forcing UAF to withdraw from recently consolidated positions and stabilize the front along the Pokrovsk axis in RF favor.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements