Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T21:10Z Focus: Confirmation of sustained UAF tactical initiative at Pokrovsk; high-volume UAF deep strikes on Crimea confirmed; immediate RF hybrid exploitation of Odesa infrastructure crisis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• UAF Tactical Momentum (Pokrovsk): UAF SKELIA Regiment confirmed continued successful coordinated strikes against RF personnel near Pokrovsk, sustaining the tactical initiative established in the previous reporting cycle. (20:54:01, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH)
• High Volume Deep Strike (Crimea): RF sources reported Crimea is under "massive enemy attack," corroborating the high UAF operational tempo assessed previously and indicating kinetic pressure is currently concentrated on the Crimean peninsula. (21:04:02, Операция Z, MEDIUM)
• RF IO Exploitation (Odesa): Pro-RF channels immediately launched a specific hybrid operation vector, claiming localized civilian support and "joy" in Odesa regarding the recent infrastructure strikes. Intent is to leverage the critical blackout to foment division and unrest. (20:57:08, НгП раZVедка, HIGH confidence in IO deployment)
• RF AD Response (Bryansk): RF Air Defense units claimed the destruction of 24 UAF fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, confirming the persistent saturation of RF strategic rear areas despite claimed successful interdiction. (20:40:59, AV БогомаZ, MEDIUM)
• UAF EW Success (Geran Interdiction): UAF Electronic Warfare (EW) units successfully forced the soft landing/downing of a Russian Shahed/Geran UAV, demonstrating effective adaptation and counter-UAS capability in the tactical rear. (20:46:40, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Alert: Air raid alert issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 20:47:00Z, signaling a renewal of the potential air/missile threat vector previously cleared at 20:16Z. (20:47:00, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH)

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk)

The situation remains characterized by high-intensity maneuver and counter-attack near Pokrovsk. The SKELIA Regiment's confirmation of continued destruction of RF forces indicates the successful consolidation and sustainment of the UAF counter-attack effort, preventing RF from stabilizing its gains. This sector remains the primary ground kinetic focus.

Deep Operations (RF Depth & Crimea)

UAF operational depth strikes maintain a high operational tempo.

1. Northern RF Border: The interception of 24 UAVs over Bryansk confirms RF focus on AD in its near-border regions, possibly targeting logistics or military staging areas near the Sumy/Kharkiv operational areas.
2. Southern Deep Rear (Crimea): The specific report of a "massive attack" on Crimea indicates UAF is leveraging its UAV and missile capabilities to degrade RF military infrastructure on the peninsula, potentially targeting airfields, naval bases, or C2 nodes. This sustained pressure diverts RF AD assets from the front line.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa)

The immediate threat in Zaporizhzhia (missile) has resurfaced with the renewed air alert. Odesa, while kinematically quiet in this window, is now the focus of intense RF psychological operations designed to leverage the infrastructure blackout and undermine local morale and stability.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Enemy Intentions (Hybrid Warfare): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces are executing the MDCOA defined in the previous report regarding internal destabilization. The immediate circulation of propaganda targeting civilian sentiment in Odesa (20:57:08) demonstrates a concerted effort to capitalize on the systemic infrastructure failure (PDR assessment).

• Actionable Intelligence: Expect an immediate increase in RF attempts to incite physical protests or attacks on vulnerable UAF/Government facilities (TCCs, police stations) in Odesa, utilizing the blackout as cover and the propaganda vector as justification.

2. Air Defense Capabilities: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The claimed interception of 24 UAVs over Bryansk confirms RF maintains robust regional AD coverage (likely Pantsir/Tor systems) specifically tasked with protecting infrastructure in the Western Military District (WMD) from UAF saturation attacks.

3. Command and Control: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The meeting between RF Defense Minister Belousov and military correspondents (20:59:01) suggests an ongoing effort by the new MoD to align military narrative and information output, likely aimed at improving coordination of the IO effort and managing perceived internal RF military friction.

4. Specific Threat Adaptation: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF continues to deploy Shahed/Geran UAVs as primary reconnaissance and precision strike assets, but UAF tactical EW proficiency (confirmed successful interdiction at 20:46:40Z) poses a credible, immediate threat to the effectiveness of these platforms.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Sustained Ground Initiative (Pokrovsk): The continued kinetic success of the SKELIA Regiment confirms UAF is successfully sustaining local counter-attack operations, forcing RF to commit reserves and attriting RF personnel.
• EW Domain Mastery: The demonstrated ability to interdict and capture/force land RF Geran UAVs using EW assets is a critical force multiplier, reducing kinetic damage and potentially allowing exploitation of captured platform technology.
• Deep Strike Initiative: The high volume of operations targeting Crimea confirms UAF intent to continually degrade RF logistical and naval power projection capabilities in the Black Sea and Southern Operational Area.

Information environment / disinformation

The primary focus has shifted to the Odesa infrastructure crisis and the exploitation of perceived internal fragility:

• RF IO Vector (Odesa): RF is attempting to leverage the critical blackout to frame the UAF/Kyiv government as illegitimate and uncaring, using manufactured claims of local civilian support for the strikes. This supports the previous assessment of RF efforts to trigger civil unrest (PDR, P4 Hybrid Gap).
• POW Exploitation: Standard RF IO practice of parading captured UAF soldiers to demoralize UAF troops and promote narratives of foreign influence on Kyiv's forces.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Commentary from senior European politicians (Merz, 20:58:10) regarding the erosion of US security guarantees ("Pax Americana") aligns with RF strategic goals of fracturing NATO unity and undermining confidence in sustained Western support.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (RF Ground Counter-Reaction & Hybrid Escalation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will launch immediate, localized counter-attacks against the UAF gains near Pokrovsk, likely utilizing significant indirect fire (including KAB strikes if air superiority permits) to negate the SKELIA Regiment's success. Simultaneously, RF hybrid warfare assets will attempt to operationalize the IO success in Odesa, seeking to instigate the first physical acts of civil unrest or violence targeting TCCs NLT 140600Z.

MDCOA (Systemic Air Defense Overload): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF, reacting to the UAF's successful deep strikes on Crimea and Bryansk, concentrates overwhelming missile and KAB assets on key UAF AD nodes near Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, aiming to achieve localized air superiority and expose forward operating units to unopposed KAB strikes. The simultaneous renewal of the Zaporizhzhia air alert (20:47:00Z) suggests this build-up may already be in motion.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements