Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T20:45Z Focus: Resolution of ballistic threat; confirmation of high UAF deep-strike tempo; successful UAF counter-infiltration operation near Kupyansk.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Air Threat Resolution (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia): The immediate high-speed ballistic missile threat inbound towards Kharkiv Oblast (identified at 20:04:00Z) has been cleared, and air raid alerts were cancelled across Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions. (20:15:57, UAF Air Force, HIGH)
• UAF Counter-Infiltration Success (Kupyansk): The 429th Separate UAV Systems Regiment "Achilles" successfully located and neutralized a covert pipeline/tube utilized by RF forces for infiltration near Kupyansk. This directly counters RF adaptive TTPs. (20:35:25, Achilles Regiment, HIGH)
• High UAF Deep Strike Tempo: Numerous RF regions (including Moscow, Rostov, Tver, Kursk) were listed as active drone threat zones, indicating sustained UAF operational depth attacks targeting RF strategic assets. RF MoD claimed intercepting 94 UAVs in three hours, a highly inflated figure that nonetheless confirms the high volume of UAF activity. (20:26:03, STERNENKO; 20:36:04, TASS/MoD Russia, HIGH on Tempo)
• Diplomatic Activity Confirmed: President Zelensky confirmed upcoming high-level meetings in Berlin with US and European partners, demonstrating strong diplomatic initiative and countering RF IO regarding Kyiv seeking unsanctioned talks. (20:14:59, Zelenskiy, HIGH)
• RF IO/Mobilization Vector: Pro-RF channels circulated aggressive footage and claims regarding alleged highly coercive UAF military mobilization ("hunting for volunteers") in Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv Oblast. This is a deliberate IO effort targeting UAF manpower legitimacy. (20:15:05, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM)

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk)

• Kupyansk Tactical Success: UAF forces have confirmed the elimination of a non-conventional infiltration route (pipe/tunnel) near Kupyansk. This mitigates a specific, novel RF tactical adaptation aimed at bypassing established front lines and reconnaissance. (20:35:25, Achilles Regiment, HIGH)
• Border Area Activity: RF sources released claims of mobile AD teams successfully engaging UAF UAVs in border regions, confirming RF dedication to tactical air defense in depth. RF heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga") continue to target UAF infantry positions near the border. (20:30:16, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk)

• Pokrovsk Focus: UAF reporting focused on industrial infrastructure (Shaft No. 2 of Pokrovske Mine Management), suggesting continued tactical engagement and contestation over key terrain features near the previously reported UAF counter-attack success. (20:21:57, DeepState, HIGH)

Deep Operations (RF Depth)

• UAV Saturation: The confirmed high tempo of UAF deep strikes across multiple key RF military districts (Western and Southern) remains the most significant change in operational geometry. This pressure forces RF to divert AD resources away from the front lines and critical infrastructure centers.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Capabilities & Intentions:

1. Adaptive TTPs (Countered): RF ground forces continue to show rapid adaptation in low-level infiltration, utilizing covert, non-conventional routes (pipes/tunnels). This capability requires constant UAF ISR attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Air Defense: RF utilizes mobile, MANPADS-equipped teams for tactical air defense in border areas, a decentralized approach intended to counter UAF reconnaissance and tactical strike UAVs. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
3. Information Operations (IO): RF initiated a specific, coordinated IO campaign targeting the perceived severity and coercion of UAF mobilization (Mykolaiv Oblast) and simultaneously employed a "humanitarian" vector, falsely claiming UAF drone attacks on ambulances (Zaporizhzhia). Intent is to demoralize UAF recruits and discredit Kyiv internationally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
4. Air/Missile (Immediate Threat Resolved): The immediate threat of ballistic strike (likely Kinzhal or Iskander, per PDR assessment) has passed, but this pattern of probing/fixing strikes on Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia remains the MLCOA.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Gains: The successful interdiction of the RF infiltration route near Kupyansk is a significant tactical victory, stabilizing a vulnerable point on the Northern Axis and confirming UAF proficiency in countering asymmetrical infiltration TTPs.
• Strategic Diplomatic Posture: High-level planning for meetings in Berlin with key Western partners confirms Kyiv's intent to maintain robust political and financial support, countering the internal RF IO narrative that Kyiv is internationally isolated or seeking desperate peace deals.
• Deep Strike Initiative: UAF maintains operational initiative in the RF strategic rear, focusing kinetic pressure on C2 nodes, logistics, and potentially industrial assets across a vast territory.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is bifurcated:

1. International Support: Strong, verbal political support from key allies (e.g., German comparison of Putin to historical aggressors) reaffirms the moral and strategic justification for continued robust military aid.
2. Domestic/Manpower Attacks: RF propaganda is actively focusing on UAF mobilization efforts, exaggerating coercion and resource depletion to undermine public trust in the government's ability to maintain a fair and effective conscription process. This aligns with the previous assessment of RF efforts to create domestic instability.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Rolling KAB/UAV Attrition & Ground Retaliation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue the adaptive KAB saturation campaign targeting GLOCs along the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk boundary. On the Northern Axis, RF will seek immediate replacement TTPs for the neutralized Kupyansk infiltration route to maintain localized pressure.

MDCOA (Exploitation of Mobilization Friction): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF hybrid assets will leverage the power/infrastructure instability in Odesa (per PDR assessment) and the amplified IO regarding UAF mobilization to incite localized protests or physical attacks against recruitment centers (TCCs) or police, triggering a disproportionate security response and diverting National Guard assets away from frontline reinforcement.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements