Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T20:45Z Focus: Continuation of KAB/UAV operational tempo; RF IO escalation targeting Western support and UAF domestic stability; Maritime targeting near Odesa.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Maritime Targeting Escalation: RF sources claim Geran UAVs attacked a second vessel departing Port Yuzhny (Odesa Oblast), reinforcing the stated intent to interdict military/dual-use (e.g., generators) maritime supplies. (20:01:10, Kotsnews, UNCONFIRMED/LOW)
• Immediate Air Threat (Kharkiv): UAF Air Force confirmed a high-speed aerial target tracking towards Kharkiv Oblast, indicating an active threat window for ballistic or cruise missile strike. (20:04:00, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH)
• RF Morale/Propaganda: RF Airborne Forces (VDV) personnel were formally awarded for participation in "Operation Potok," characterized by RF sources as the "liberation of Sudzha" (Kursk region). (19:47:01, Colonelcassad, HIGH)
• RF Logistics Gap: Pro-RF channels ("Два майора") issued a public fundraising appeal for "Frontline Armor," indicating persistent logistical shortfalls in providing protective equipment to frontline troops. (19:50:14, Два майора, HIGH)
• IO: Zelensky Peace Talks Narrative: RF media aggressively promoted an UNCONFIRMED claim that President Zelensky is seeking meetings with representatives of former US President Trump to discuss ending the war. (19:49:30, Операция Z, LOW)

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Dnipro Boundary)

The operational tempo remains high, characterized by the KAB strikes targeting the UAF operational rear (Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk boundary) identified in the previous report.

• Pokrovsk/Donetsk: No new kinetic reporting since the UAF counter-attack success by "Skelya 425." RF tactical maneuvering near Donetsk involves high-risk TTPs, including deliberately walking through minefields (step-in-step) to achieve infiltration, suggesting continued ground pressure despite heavy losses. (20:01:24, Два майора, MEDIUM)
• Logistics: The threat to GLOCs near the Dnipro boundary remains critical (PDR assessment).

Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk)

• Active Air Threat: A high-speed aerial target is currently inbound towards Kharkiv Oblast, demanding immediate air defense engagement. This aligns with the previous assessment of continued KAB and UAV pressure fixing UAF AD assets in the area. (20:04:00, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH)

Southern Axis (Odesa/Black Sea)

• Odesa Maritime Interdiction: RF sources assert successful Geran UAV strikes on commercial vessels utilizing the Black Sea corridor out of Port Yuzhny. This is a direct attempt to challenge the UAF's ability to sustain logistics via sea. The success of the strike is UNCONFIRMED, but the intent to specifically target vessels (and not just port infrastructure) is confirmed. This compounds the existing systemic infrastructure failure in Odesa. (20:01:10, Kotsnews, LOW confidence on strike, HIGH confidence on targeting).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Capabilities & Intentions:

1. Air/UAV (Maritime): RF is actively pursuing kinetic interdiction of commercial shipping, attempting to stop the flow of materiel and humanitarian/dual-use goods (e.g., power generators) into Odesa. This expands the maritime threat beyond fixed port infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Sustainment Status: Persistent reliance on public fundraising ("Frontline Armor") for essential protective gear highlights ongoing systemic logistical deficiencies within RF forces, particularly for specialized equipment (protective armor, comms). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. TTPs Adaptation: RF small units demonstrate a willingness to employ extremely high-risk tactics, such as navigating minefields without clearance, indicating severe pressure to maintain momentum in critical sectors (Donetsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
4. Strategic Posture: RF continues to leverage Information Operations (IO) via proxies (Hungary) to destabilize EU resolve regarding sanctions and utilization of frozen assets, attempting to frame Western aid as an act of war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Success: A specific UAF unit released combat footage of a successful drone strike, maintaining tactical initiative and morale in unspecified frontline sectors. (19:58:03, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH)
• Diplomatic Front: Belarus released nine political prisoners to Lithuania, including a Nobel laureate. This event, coupled with the GUR/US prisoner exchange reported previously, suggests a volatile but active diplomatic channel involving Minsk. (20:02:01, РБК-Україна, HIGH)

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is characterized by concentrated RF efforts to generate geopolitical tension and domestic political uncertainty in Kyiv.

• Geopolitical Destabilization: Hungarian PM Orbán’s statement equating the use of frozen Russian assets to a "declaration of war" is being amplified by RF state media (TASS) to generate friction within NATO/EU structure.
• US Political Influence: The UNCONFIRMED claim regarding Zelensky seeking peace talks with Trump representatives is a clear RF information operation designed to: a) Undermine the current US administration's support posture. b) Suggest Kyiv is desperate and facing imminent collapse/defeat.
• Domestic Legitimacy Attack: The alleged removal of the "Servant of the People" series is a low-level IO vector targeting Zelensky’s political legitimacy and public trust amidst wartime mobilization and infrastructural crises. (D-S Belief: Media Censorship Increase in Ukraine 0.011888)

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Adaptive Air Strike & Maritime Harassment): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will continue the KAB/Missile pressure on Kharkiv (as evidenced by the current alert) and will escalate surveillance and potential kinetic strikes against Black Sea commercial vessels, capitalizing on Odesa's infrastructural vulnerability. The delay of the mass 260th GRAU artillery event will be compensated by a prolonged, rolling air attrition campaign.

MDCOA (Pokrovsk Reinfiltration & Odesa Sabotage): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Leveraging the complexity of the frontline, RF utilizes high-risk TTPs (minefield breaches) to infiltrate the Pokrovsk sector and nullify the UAF "Skelya 425" success. Simultaneously, RF hybrid assets in Odesa (leveraging the power outage and maritime threat) instigate violence against TCCs or port logistics, triggering the need for National Guard diversion from frontline support.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements