Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T19:09Z

This report updates the immediate operational context following the RF retaliatory kinetic strike wave and confirmed UAF counter-strike activity deep within the Russian Federation (RF). The situation remains volatile, defined by a rapid exchange of deep strikes, while localized tactical engagements continue across the Donbas axis.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Zaporizhzhia Ballistic Impact (18:54Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Two high-speed targets struck the Zaporizhzhia District, resulting in confirmed explosions. This followed an Air Force warning (18:37Z, 18:45Z) and confirmation that the initial high-confidence ballistic threat alert across Southern Ukraine had expired (18:42Z).
• Deep UAF Strike on RF Rear (19:03Z, Артамонов, HIGH): RF authorities declared a "Red" UAV Attack Threat across six municipal districts (MO/MR) in Lipetsk Oblast, indicating active or highly imminent UAF kinetic action deep inside the Russian Federation (approx. 500km+).
• Frontline Morale Evidence (18:44Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): UAF 42nd Mechanized Brigade video evidence documented an RF soldier engaging in self-detonation (suicide using a grenade) near Novopavlivka on the Pokrovsk direction, indicative of extreme close-quarters combat and low morale/situational awareness in targeted RF infantry.
• Sevastopol Alert Cancellation (18:47Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): The air raid alert in Sevastopol (Crimea), active during the previous reporting period, has been canceled, confirming the conclusion of the immediate, synchronized RF defensive/alert response to recent UAF deep action.
• Eastern Axis RF Claims (18:43Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): RF milblogger claims active urban fighting in the private sector of Konstantinovka and successful UAF expulsion north of the Kleban-Byk reservoir (Bakhmut/Soledar area). This remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.

Operational picture (by sector)

Deep Operational Area / Air Domain

Status: Kinetic Exchange / Deep Strike Escalation UAF has countered the RF retaliatory strike (which impacted Zaporizhzhia) by extending the deep battlespace well into RF territory. The declaration of a RED-level UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast (a key region for aviation/MIC assets) confirms UAF capability to impose friction far from the front line. The short-duration nature of the ballistic alerts (which saw multiple launches into Zaporizhzhia) suggests RF is optimizing missile use for rapid, high-impact tactical strikes intended to disrupt local readiness.

Eastern Operational Command (Pokrovsk/Bakhmut)

Status: High-Friction Attrition The Pokrovsk direction (Novopavlivka) remains intensely contested. The documentation of RF soldiers exhibiting extreme behavior (suicide) suggests UAF 42nd Mechanized Brigade is highly effective at neutralizing RF assaults, specifically impacting RF infantry morale and tactical cohesion in the immediate contact zone. RF claims of breakthroughs/urban fighting in Konstantinovka are unverified but underscore RF intent to expand the offensive perimeter toward Kramatorsk/Slovyansk.

Southern Operational Command (Zaporizhzhia)

Status: Active Kinetic Impact The confirmed impact and subsequent explosions in the Zaporizhzhia District indicate the RF retaliatory ballistic strike successfully penetrated UAF air defenses or targeted areas beyond immediate AD concentration. Specific damage assessment is required to determine if the target was military logistics or energy infrastructure.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL – RF Response to Lipetsk Strike is Imminent and Highly Likely to Target Rear Area C2/Infrastructure.

1. Deep Strike Intent (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The active UAV threat over Lipetsk Oblast (RF) indicates UAF is successfully striking deep. RF forces will perceive this as a significant escalation. The primary threat is a coordinated RF kinetic response (Kh-101/Kalibr) targeting strategic UAF rear areas, potentially including previously unhit cities or critical MIC/energy nodes (MDCOA).
2. Targeting Prioritization (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The strike on Zaporizhzhia District, coupled with the previous targeting of energy repair teams (Sumy, previous sitrep), confirms RF prioritization remains: 1) Punitive strikes, 2) Degradation of logistics, and 3) Denial of UAF infrastructure recovery capacity.
3. Black Sea IO (LOW CONFIDENCE): The UNCONFIRMED claim of a Shahed strike on a vessel leaving Port Pivdennyi (18:58Z) serves the RF objective of deterring maritime traffic and projecting continued dominance in the Black Sea, supporting the broader hybrid warfare goal of economic strangulation.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Deep Strike Force Projection (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF deep strike capability is demonstrably active and has increased its geographical reach, effectively transferring operational risk to the RF mainland. This is a crucial element of the UAF strategy to disrupt RF logistical and political stability.
2. NGU Force Readiness (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The recurring NGU reports (Kara-Dag, Bureviy, Tactical Medicine training, Nov 26 - Dec 6) demonstrate UAF commitment to sustaining high-quality combat units and enhancing battlefield survivability (tactical medicine), crucial for maintaining defensive stability, particularly on the Kupyansk axis.
3. Diplomatic Maneuver (HIGH CONFIDENCE): President Zelenskyy's confirmed upcoming meetings with U.S. and European leaders (18:36Z) prioritize securing continued international military and financial support, directly countering RF kinetic pressure by reinforcing strategic backing.

Information environment / disinformation

The immediate IE is focused on managing the shock of the deep strike exchange. RF IO is heavily invested in discrediting UAF success (Kupyansk, 18:38Z) and amplifying tactical threats (maritime denial). UAF messaging must immediately confirm the success of the AD systems in clearing the Southern ballistic threat while providing swift, credible BDA for the Zaporizhzhia impacts to maintain domestic morale and counter RF claims of strike success.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate kinetic exchange wave is subsiding, allowing for operational assessment. RF forces are expected to calibrate their response to the Lipetsk strike within this timeframe.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Focused UAV Attrition & Follow-up on Zaporizhzhia Damage (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF uses the next 6-12 hours to assess the effects of the Zaporizhzhia strike and follows up with Shahed/FPV waves targeting emergency crews, known energy substations, and critical transport nodes in the Zaporizhzhia and Poltava Oblasts.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Strategic Retaliation via Precision Strike (MEDIUM Confidence): RF executes a coordinated, high-payload cruise missile strike (e.g., Kh-101) targeting a strategic UAF C2 headquarters or a major air defense/aviation maintenance hub in the central/western part of Ukraine (in response to the Lipetsk strike), aiming to degrade UAF ability to sustain its deep strike operations.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. AIR DEFENSE / PREVENT RETALIATION (J3 / OC Center/West): PROTECT STRATEGIC ASSETS.
   • Action A (CRITICAL): Elevate AD readiness (REDCON 1) for all critical C2 nodes, main logistical choke points, and major industrial centers (e.g., aviation MRO facilities) outside the front line, anticipating RF MDCOA response to the Lipetsk strike. (CR P2)
2. FORCE PROTECTION / COUNTER-ATTRITION (OC South): SECURE REPAIR CAPACITY.
   • Action A (CRITICAL): Immediately dispatch dedicated mobile C-UAS and EW teams to accompany BDA and rapid repair units deploying to the Zaporizhzhia District impact sites, recognizing the high probability of follow-up FPV/Shahed strikes targeting these crews. (CR P1)
3. MANEUVER / TACTICAL EXPLOITATION (OC East): PUSH NOVO-PAVLIVKA.
   • Action A (URGENT): Allocate dedicated FPV drone reserves and indirect fire support to the 42nd Mechanized Brigade in the Novopavlivka sector to sustain pressure on demonstrated RF breaking points and exploit tactical morale failures. (CR P3)