Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-13T18:39Z

This report integrates multi-domain intelligence, confirming a significant escalation in the RF coordinated retaliatory campaign following the UAF deep strike on the Acron plant. The immediate threat is a high-confidence ballistic missile attack targeting Southern Ukraine, coupled with persistent UAS saturation aimed at degrading logistics and infrastructure repair capacity.

Key updates since last sitrep

• Ballistic Missile Threat (18:26Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): A high-level threat alert has been issued for inbound ballistic missiles targeting Southern Ukraine. This aligns with the previous prediction of immediate RF retaliation (DS M: 0.173 for missile strike on Southern infrastructure).
• Kyiv Power Disruption (18:24Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): A confirmed power outage (blackout) occurred at the Palace of Sports in Kyiv during a public event, indicating either strategic targeting of capital infrastructure or cascade failure under stress.
• Targeting Repair Crews (18:21Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Hostile UAVs successfully targeted and struck civilian energy repair teams operating in Sumy Oblast. This tactic is designed to maximize the duration of infrastructure outages.
• Deep Strike Response (18:10Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Air raid sirens were activated in Sevastopol (Crimea), confirming heightened RF defensive/alert status in the Black Sea area following recent UAF deep kinetic action.
• UAV Infiltration (18:21Z, Air Force, HIGH): Enemy UAV detected penetrating deep into Poltava Oblast, tracking towards the Zavodske/Lokhvytsia area from the north, threatening logistics hubs.
• UAF Adaptive Capability (Dec 3-11, NGU, HIGH): NGU confirmed active operational integration of Ground Robotic Complexes (UGVs) for logistics/strike and sustained training improvements for armored warfare and FPV operations (e.g., Kara-Dag near Kupyansk).

Operational picture (by sector)

Deep Operational Area / Air Domain

Status: CRITICAL Retaliation Phase RF has initiated a widespread, multi-vector retaliatory strike pattern, likely triggered by the UAF strike on the Acron MIC facility. The initiation of simultaneous air alerts in Sevastopol, Zaporizhzhia, and the detection of deep-penetrating UAVs (Poltava) indicates a synchronized effort to stress UAF air defense assets across multiple operational zones. The Kyiv blackout suggests targeting priorities now include C2/capital stability, in addition to southern logistics.

Northern Operational Command (Sumy/Kupyansk Axis)

Status: Targeted Kinetic Denial / Asymmetric Attrition RF forces continue localized kinetic operations (claimed destruction of a mortar position in Sumy by Akhmat SpN, 18:13Z, LOW confidence). The critical development is the verified RF targeting of civilian energy repair crews in Sumy (18:21Z). This is a focused effort to neutralize UAF capacity to maintain critical infrastructure resilience, a hybrid operation designed to maximize civilian hardship and hinder rear area stability.

Southern Operational Command (Odesa/Crimea)

Status: Immediate Kinetic Danger All units in the South must maintain maximum readiness (REDCON 1) due to the high-confidence ballistic missile threat (18:26Z). The air alert in Sevastopol confirms RF forces anticipate or are responding to kinetic activity in the Black Sea, likely involving UAF UAS/Missile assets.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL – Coordinated Deep Strike & Denial of Infrastructure Recovery

1. Tactical Adaption (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has evolved its infrastructure attack methodology from simply striking power nodes to actively targeting the repair teams required to restore service (Sumy, 18:21Z). This tactic dramatically increases the operational friction and timeframe for UAF infrastructure recovery.
2. Command Posture (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The air raid alerts and confirmed deep UAV penetration confirm that RF MLCOA (Retaliatory Strike) is active. The ability to launch deep strikes into Poltava and Kyiv concurrently with a major ballistic threat in the South suggests RF command has allocated sufficient reserves for a sustained punitive campaign.
3. Internal Control (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The continued, high-profile arrests and raids against domestic dissent in Russia (Moscow, 18:09Z) reinforce the judgment that Moscow is achieving full internal control necessary to sustain long-term military pressure without significant domestic political constraint.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Air Defense Response (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF Air Force systems are actively tracking and reporting deep-penetrating enemy assets (Poltava UAVs, 18:21Z) and providing timely alerts for ballistic threats, demonstrating effective sensor coverage and alert dissemination.
2. Force Modernization (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The NGU's public commitment to modernizing mechanized force training and integrating UGVs shows sustained effort to enhance logistical resilience and tactical effectiveness, directly countering the RF FPV/logistical strike threat.
3. Morale / StratCom: UAF successfully employs StratCom to highlight both combat competence (UAV strike videos) and national resilience (cultural successes), countering the psychological effects of RF kinetic attacks.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO is leveraging the kinetic strikes (Kyiv blackout) to undermine domestic morale and security confidence. Simultaneously, RF milbloggers are deploying fabricated anti-air success narratives (Odesa Shahed downing, 18:22Z), likely aiming to negate the strategic impact of UAF kinetic actions in the Black Sea. UAF StratCom must rapidly address the Kyiv power failure narrative to prevent RF exploitation.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate next phase will be the impact and assessment of the ballistic strike in the South. RF forces will likely follow up this high-impact kinetic strike with further saturation attacks (Shaheds/FPV) on Southern GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) and energy infrastructure, aiming for systemic collapse as predicted in the MDCOA of the daily report.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Immediate Ballistic Strike and Follow-on Kinetic Attrition (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF executes the active ballistic strike (CR P1), followed by sustained, low-altitude UAV/Shahed waves targeting critical transport nodes (rail/port) and known locations of AD/repair crews in the South and central regions (Poltava/Kyiv approaches).

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Coordinated Kinetic/Cyber Suppression (MEDIUM Confidence): RF launches follow-on kinetic strikes on the Odesa/Mykolaiv power grid, coordinated with a debilitating cyberattack on UAF logistical C2 systems, preventing efficient resource allocation and emergency response, particularly while repair crews are actively suppressed by UAV strikes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. AIR DEFENSE / BALLISTIC THREAT (J3 / OC South): MITIGATE IMPACT.
   • Action A (CRITICAL): Execute pre-planned counter-ballistic protocols (e.g., maximum deflection of critical system power) immediately upon impact confirmation. Maintain AD concentration over critical port facilities (Odesa/Mykolaiv) until the threat vector is closed. (CR P1)
2. FORCE PROTECTION / COUNTER-UAS (OC North / J3): PROTECT CIVILIAN LOGISTICS.
   • Action A (CRITICAL): Deploy mobile EW/C-UAS jamming assets immediately to provide protective coverage for all documented utility repair and humanitarian aid crews operating in Sumy and contested Northern Oblasts. (CR P3)
3. AIR DEFENSE / REAR AREA SHIFT (J3 / OC Center/East): DEFEND POLTAVA AXIS.
   • Action A (URGENT): Re-task a minimum of two mobile SHORAD battery equivalents and necessary EW assets towards the Zavodske/Lokhvytsia vector in Poltava Oblast to intercept the deep-penetrating UAV threat and defend logistical hubs. (CR P2)