Situation Report

Situation Update (11:45Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Operational Tempo: HIGH Primary Threat: Imminent RF mechanized ground offensive on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Axis. Time since last SitRep: 30 minutes (Since 11:15Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• RF Aerial Attack Composition Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The massive overnight preparatory strike consisted of precisely 465 UAVs and 30 missiles, totaling 495 aerial assets (11:15Z, ASTRA). This confirms the saturation strategy previously assessed.
• UAF Counter-Offensive Operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) confirmed successful strikes against RF positions in the Pokrovsk Direction, actively targeting enemy concentrations ahead of the anticipated ground offensive (11:16Z, РБК-Україна).
• RF Specialized UAV Usage Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF 5th Guards Tank Brigade (36th Army, Group Vostok) UAV operators executed precision strikes on UAF equipment (SPGs, armored vehicles, antennae) on the west bank of the Gaichur River (Zaporizhzhia sector) (11:19Z, Воин DV). This confirms specialized unit deployment on the Southern axis.
• Foreign Fighter Capture (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF forces operating in the Kupyansk direction captured an Iraqi national serving with RF forces as a Prisoner of War (POW) (11:35Z, Оперативний ЗСУ). This validates intelligence regarding the RF reliance on irregular foreign fighters in the Northern Operational Command area.
• EU Internal Friction Amplified (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF state media is amplifying statements by Slovak PM Fico, who claims he will block the transfer of frozen Russian assets at the upcoming EU summit and has criticized Ukraine funding (11:33Z, Colonelcassad). This is a coordinated IO effort to degrade confidence in EU support.
• KAB Strikes on Donetsk (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF Air Force reported launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk Oblast (11:32Z, Повітряні Сили). This confirms the RF is conducting final deep fire preparatory strikes ahead of the ground assault.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Operational Command (Donetsk Axis)

Status: MAXIMUM KINETIC SHAPING The operational clock is ticking towards the MLCOA window (NLT 1800Z). RF preparatory fire is characterized by the use of KABs in Donetsk, suggesting high-value targets (UAF command posts, concentration areas, logistics) are being neutralized prior to the ground movement (11:32Z). UAF forces are actively engaged in counter-preparation: SSO operations targeting RF forward positions in the Pokrovsk Direction (11:16Z) and the 214th Assault Battalion operating successfully in the Oleksandrivske direction (11:22Z) confirm a deliberate defensive strategy to dismantle the RF penetration points before they can fully form. The anticipated main thrust remains centered on Pokrovsk.

Northern Operational Command (Kharkiv / Kupyansk / Sumy)

Status: PINNING EFFORTS & IRREGULAR FORCES Kinetic pressure continues, evidenced by fresh attacks on Kharkiv (11:18Z, О. Синєгубов). The key new development is the capture of an Iraqi POW near Kupyansk (11:35Z). This indicates the RF continues to use foreign fighters—possibly poorly trained or equipped—in the northern attrition battles, serving perhaps as expendable reconnaissance elements or to fill manpower gaps. UAF must assume RF forces are testing multiple contact lines in this sector to fix UAF reserves.

Southern Operational Command (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)

Status: SPECIALIZED ATTRITION WARFARE The focus remains on localized attrition facilitated by highly specialized RF assets. The confirmed activity of UAV operators from the 5th Guards Tank Brigade on the west bank of the Gaichur River demonstrates the RF's continued reliance on dedicated, specialized reconnaissance and strike teams to degrade UAF high-value assets (SPGs, C2 antennae) on secondary axes (11:19Z). Air defense alert status has been raised and cleared in Zaporizhzhia (11:16Z), confirming ongoing RF aerial reconnaissance efforts.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL – Synchronization Pending

1. Imminent Assault Preparation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The use of KABs in Donetsk represents the final kinetic phase of preparation, designed to destroy hardened UAF targets before ground troops advance. The RF is prioritizing speed in initiating the ground assault now that the strategic CI strikes have been completed.
2. Hybrid Force Integration (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The capture of the Iraqi POW near Kupyansk suggests RF forces may be using irregular foreign personnel to sustain combat intensity in secondary sectors. This pattern is often used to mask mainline troop strength or to test UAF defensive resilience without committing regular RF units.
3. Targeted Political Disruption (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF information operations are highly synchronized with the kinetic timeline, focusing aggressively on showcasing EU fragmentation (Slovak and Czech statements) to undermine UAF internal morale and diplomatic standing just hours before the anticipated main push.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Proactive Defensive Shaping (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF actions (SSO, 214 OShB) in the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivske directions demonstrate effective tactical anticipation and force deployment, actively disrupting RF force build-up and staging areas.
• Intelligence Opportunity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The captured Iraqi POW in Kupyansk provides a critical, immediate HUMINT opportunity to gauge the disposition, morale, and intended mission set of irregular RF foreign units in the Northern sector.
• Confirmed Inter-Unit Cooperation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Reports of successful joint operations between the 3rd Assault Corps and the 63rd Mechanized Brigade suggest sustained, effective coordination between different force structures, critical for a successful defense against a synchronized RF offensive.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is dominated by coordinated RF efforts to manipulate the political narrative in the EU:

1. EU Financial Fracture Narrative (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The claims regarding Slovakia's intent to block frozen asset transfers (DS belief 0.07) and the Czech leader's alleged unwillingness to guarantee credit (11:30Z) are designed to signal to Kyiv that the window of strategic Western support is closing.
2. Diplomatic Maneuvering (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Finnish President Stubb's decision to cancel a US trip and prioritize Berlin talks on Ukraine (11:32Z) suggests that a significant diplomatic push, potentially related to de-escalation or ceasefire discussions (DS belief 0.22), is moving to the forefront concurrently with the kinetic escalation. This represents an opportunity for UAF to leverage diplomatic pressure but also a risk if the momentum shifts towards unfavorable terms.
3. CI Attack Framing (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF channels are actively framing official Ukrainian Ministry of Energy damage reports to minimize the impact of the 495-asset strike or suggest UAF incompetence (11:15Z), aimed at undermining public trust.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The window for the RF ground offensive remains critical. The use of KABs signals the final clearance phase. UAF must assume the RF assault is ordered and in motion, masked only by final tactical preparation.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Synchronized Ground Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces initiate the mechanized assault against the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis NLT 1800Z. The main effort will be preceded by intense short-duration rocket/artillery fire directed at identified UAF strongpoints that survived the KAB strikes. The objective remains penetration through the Dobropillia salient to exploit C2/power disruptions caused by the CI strikes.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Rapid, Unconventional Escalation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF C2 judges UAF defenses are sufficiently degraded by the CI strike and preemptive kinetic fire to launch the assault immediately (NLT 1300Z). The assault is accompanied by a dramatic, internationally focused event, possibly linked to the previous "Dirty Bomb" narrative, designed to freeze Western diplomatic response time just as the tactical breakthrough begins.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/OC EAST): EXPLOIT INTEL WINDOW.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Utilize the Iraqi POW (P2) for immediate tactical intelligence regarding foreign fighter density and deployment patterns, especially if they are used to mask the main RF effort.
   • Action B: Conduct immediate, pre-emptive counter-fire against any confirmed RF heavy armor concentrations identified by SSO/ISR assets around the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia area. Assume RF command vehicles are prioritizing speed over concealment.

2. TARGETING (J2/J3): NEUTRALIZE KAB LAUNCHERS.

   • Action A: Identify and strike high-value fixed-wing launch platforms/airfields responsible for the KAB strikes in Donetsk Oblast. The use of KABs confirms RF confidence in achieving air superiority/access for this operation.

3. STRATCOM/DIPLOMACY (J5/MFA): COUNTER-NARRATIVE ON EU FRICTION.

   • Action A: Immediately activate diplomatic channels with Prague and Bratislava to secure a public joint statement affirming long-term commitment to Ukraine's financial and political integration, directly countering the RF IO narrative regarding Slovakia and Czechia.