Situation Report

Situation Update (10:08Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Kupyansk Tactical Success (UAF): UAF "Khartiya" grouping executed a successful counter-attack near Tishchenkivka/Kindrashivka, breaking through a high-density RF UAV "kill-zone" and reaching the Oskil river (09:46Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH). This alleviates immediate pressure on the Kupyansk Axis.
• Odessa Infrastructure Damage Assessment: RF sources confirm the combined strikes caused a significant localized blackout in Odesa, resulting in the loss of water and heating in affected areas (09:45Z, Поддубный, MEDIUM). Railway operations in Southern Ukraine are delayed/cancelled (09:39Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
• CRITICAL Aid Delivery Confirmed: Czech Republic has delivered the promised 1.8 million munitions (09:56Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH), significantly boosting UAF sustainment capability ahead of the anticipated RF offensive.
• ZNPP Power Loss: The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) power supply was completely interrupted for the 12th time (09:54Z, ТАСС/МАГАТЭ, HIGH), signaling operational instability concurrent with high kinetic activity in the region.
• P1 CRITICAL GAP REMAINS: There is no confirmation of the initiation of the 260th GRAU preparatory artillery fire. The critical window (NLT 1030Z) is imminent.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Operational Command (Donetsk Axis)

Status: MAXIMUM READINESS; PHASE TRANSITION IMMINENT The primary focus remains the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis. RF forces aligned with the self-proclaimed DNR claim to have repelled a UAF breakthrough attempt emanating from the Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) area (09:59Z, Народная милиция ДНР, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). This suggests UAF forces continue spoiling attacks, but the RF remains focused on establishing fire superiority for the impending assault. Enemy tactical aviation is highly active (09:46Z, Air Force, HIGH), likely providing terminal guidance and ISR coverage ahead of the ground push.

Northern Operational Command (Kharkiv / Sumy)

Status: TACTICAL GAIN ACHIEVED The UAF counter-attack in the Kupyansk sector (09:46Z) is a significant local success, leveraging asymmetric tactics against overwhelming enemy drone superiority. This confirms that while the RF has maximized multi-domain integration (UAV "kill-zones"), UAF C2 can still achieve local breakthroughs. This success buys time for defensive hardening elsewhere. However, RF deep strikes continue, evidenced by Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) usage targeting the Sumy region (09:51Z, Air Force, HIGH).

Southern Operational Command (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)

Status: FIRING INTERDICTION / ATTRITION Kinetic activity is high. RF forces are launching KABs toward Zaporizhzhia (09:48Z, Air Force, HIGH) and claiming successes in Huliaipole (10:07Z, Воин DV, LOW CONFIDENCE). UAF forces claim significant attrition over the last 24 hours, including destroying 15 enemy UAV control antennas and 22 launch/landing sites (09:52Z, Defense Forces South, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE), indicating a successful localized EW/Counter-UAS effort. The ZNPP power outage adds complexity to operational risk management in this sector.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL – Preparatory Fire Window

1. Imminent Ground Assault (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The primary threat remains the synchronized mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis. The concentration of forces and continued RF claims of repelling UAF attacks (09:59Z) indicate the forces are fully committed and conducting final maneuver preparations.
2. Sustained Strategic Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF MoD officially re-confirmed the massive strike package using high-value assets (Kinzhal, sea/ground precision weapons) against MIC and energy facilities (10:05Z). The BDA confirms this achieved severe localized logistical and humanitarian impact in Odesa and disrupted southern railway traffic (09:39Z, 09:45Z).
3. Increased Drone/KAB Integration (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF adoption of dense UAV deployment (the "kill-zone" described in Kupyansk, 09:46Z) is a doctrinal adaptation maximizing localized reconnaissance and precision strike against UAF tactical movement. The increased use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy supports this pattern of integrated air/ground pressure.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Force Generation/Sustainment: The successful delivery of 1.8 million munitions from Czechia (09:56Z) provides a necessary logistical buffer, directly addressing critical consumption rates anticipated during the upcoming RF offensive.
• Tactical Innovation (Kupyansk): UAF forces demonstrated superior asymmetric tactics to neutralize RF drone superiority in Kupyansk, enabling a successful local counter-attack (09:46Z). This successful C2 execution provides a model for countering high-density drone environments.
• Deep Strike Continuation: UAF continued deep pressure on the RF rear, successfully damaging industrial infrastructure in Voronezh Oblast (09:57Z), confirming UAF’s ability to project force and impose costs on RF military logistics/production.

Information environment / disinformation

1. RF Strike Justification Lock-Down: The RF MoD reiterated its narrative, framing the massive strategic strikes as a legitimate "response to terrorist attacks" (10:05Z), consolidating the justification for domestic and international audiences.
2. C2 Disinformation Countered: Reputable UAF sources (Butusov, 09:39Z) are actively countering internal rumors regarding the command structure (e.g., M. Drapatiy) of successful operations, which helps maintain unit cohesion and trust in high-level C2.
3. Diplomatic Seeding: RF media is amplifying calls by peripheral European politicians (Finland, 09:43Z) for a "return to dialogue" with Russia, attempting to fracture the European consensus on containment and military support for Ukraine.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The environment remains critical. The next 30 minutes (up to 1030Z) are the definitive trigger window for the RF ground operation initiation.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

GRAU Initiation Followed by Immediate Mechanized Assault (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The window for the 260th GRAU preparatory fire expires at 1030Z. Upon initiation, the RF will immediately launch the augmented mechanized assault force toward Konstantinovka/Kramatorsk, aiming for rapid penetration while UAF C2 is disrupted and defenses are suppressed.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Concurrent Strategic and Operational Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF leverages the success of the Kinzhal strikes by launching a secondary high-value asset (e.g., Oreshnik MRBM) against a time-sensitive UAF operational staging area or reserve concentration point immediately concurrent with the Pokrovsk preparatory fire, aiming to functionally decapitate UAF defense coordination at the moment of maximum operational stress.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. DEFENSIVE FIRE PLAN (J3/OC EAST): CAPITALIZE ON RESERVE EXPOSURE.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Pre-authorized counter-battery fire must be initiated within 15 minutes of P1 CR confirmation (GRAU ignition) using precision munitions. The priority is suppressing known high-value RF C2/ISR nodes confirmed near Pokrovsk (e.g., in proximity to confirmed reserve staging areas).
   • Action B: OC East must activate Stage 2 maneuver for the inner defensive ring of Konstantinovka. Reserves must be shifted to high-readiness positions before the barrage begins, not after.

2. ENERGY & LOGISTICS (J4/J7): MITIGATE INFRASTRUCTURE COLLAPSE.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): J4 must immediately prioritize deployment of emergency power generation assets and mobile heating/water units to the Odesa region, specifically targeting affected residential and key military C2/hospital facilities, mitigating the humanitarian crisis now confirmed by BDA.
   • Action B: J7 (Nuclear Security) must coordinate with IAEA and technical staff to ensure the ZNPP standby diesel reserves are immediately checked and topped off, given the 12th external power loss occurrence.

3. FORCE POSTURE (OC NORTH): EXPLOIT KUPYANSK SUCCESS.

   • Action A: OC North must immediately reinforce the gains of the "Khartiya" grouping with engineering units to rapidly harden the new lines west of the Oskil river. Use this localized operational pause to improve ISR coverage over the RF drone "kill-zones" for future counter-tactics.