Situation Report

Situation Update (09:40Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Pokrovsk Reinforcement Confirmed: General Syrskyi confirms the RF is transferring additional operational reserves into the Pokrovsk direction (09:14Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH). This validates the focus of the RF main effort.
• Kinzhal Hypersonic Strike: RF MoD confirms utilizing "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles as part of a massive, synchronized strike targeting Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) facilities and supporting energy infrastructure (09:13Z, 09:30Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, HIGH).
• UAF Counter-Action Reported: RF MoD claims UAF forces attempted a tactical breakthrough from the Shevchenko area toward Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) which was repelled, suggesting intense, localized engagement (09:14Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
• New Deep UAV Track: A group of RF UAVs was detected operating on a southward trajectory over Northern Chernihiv Oblast (09:29Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH), opening a third major axis of deep infiltration (following Sumy/Poltava).
• CRITICAL GAP REMAINS: There is no confirmation of the initiation of the 260th GRAU preparatory artillery fire. The critical window (NLT 1000Z) is imminent.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Operational Command (Donetsk Axis)

Status: BUILDUP COMPLETE; ASSAULT IMMINENT The operational tempo remains at a critical high. General Syrskyi's confirmation of RF reserve deployment to Pokrovsk (09:14Z) suggests the final staging phase for the planned mechanized assault is complete. UAF forces are engaged in active contact, evidenced by the reported UAF counter-thrust attempt near Shevchenko/Pokrovsk (09:14Z). RF reconnaissance elements (WarGonzo, 09:17Z) remain highly active, maximizing ISR coverage ahead of the preparatory barrage. The P1 CR for the GRAU initiation must be monitored until 1030Z.

Strategic Rear (MIC/Energy)

Status: STRATEGIC STRIKE IMPACT PENDING The use of Kinzhal (09:13Z) indicates the RF's willingness to expend high-value assets to degrade Ukraine's long-term warfighting capacity and reduce its reliance on Western supplies. The strike was synchronized and multi-domain (cruise, hypersonic, UAV). While initial grid stability was reported in Odesa (pre-sitrep), the BDA of the MIC facilities targeted by the Kinzhal strikes is the immediate priority (P2 CR).

Northern Operational Command (Chernihiv / Sumy / Poltava)

Status: MULTI-AXIS INTERDICTION RF strategy is confirmed to include multi-axis pressure on the deep rear. The new UAV track in Chernihiv Oblast (09:29Z) forces UAF Air Defense to stretch assets across a vast area, covering potential high-value targets (Kyiv, Poltava staging areas, Dnipro) simultaneously, potentially softening defenses ahead of a strategic ballistic strike (Oreshnik MRBM threat).

Zaporizhzhia Axis

Status: LINGERING BALLISTIC THREAT The air raid alert was cancelled for Zaporizhzhia city, but the regional missile danger remains (09:38Z). This suggests either persistent low-level kinetic activity or strategic overwatch, likely related to potential secondary Kinzhal targets or ongoing operations involving previously identified long-range missile platforms.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL – Synchronization Phase

1. Ground Offensive Commitment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The explicit confirmation of transferring additional reserves to the Pokrovsk direction elevates the immediate ground assault threat. The RF is fully committed to operationalizing the Kramatorsk encirclement and is maximizing force density.
2. Targeted Capability Degradation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Kinzhal strike on MIC facilities represents a calculated escalation aimed specifically at crippling Ukraine's defense production base, reducing its ability to repair equipment and generate domestic munitions.
3. IO/Force Posture Disruption (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF claims regarding the pending liquidation of International Legion units (09:29Z) is a probable psychological warfare effort designed to deter future foreign recruitment and sow discord regarding UAF professionalization and manpower integration.
4. Domestic Vulnerability (LOW CONFIDENCE): Reports of civil defense shortcomings in Volgograd (09:23Z) indicate that UAF deep strikes are achieving internal psychological and logistical effects in Russia, potentially straining RF reserve resources away from the front.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Situational Awareness: UAF command (Syrskyi) demonstrates high fidelity C2 and intelligence reporting by confirming enemy reserve movements in real-time on the main axis of attack (09:14Z).
• Tactical Initiative: UAF forces, despite overwhelming RF pressure in Pokrovsk, are demonstrating local initiative through attempted breakthroughs/counter-attacks (09:14Z), which is vital for disrupting RF synchronization and inflicting localized attrition.

Information environment / disinformation

1. Strike Justification: RF state media and military bloggers immediately synchronized messaging, characterizing the combined hypersonic strikes as legitimate "retaliation" against UAF "terrorist attacks" (09:30Z), maintaining the offensive narrative for domestic consumption.
2. Foreign Fighter Narrative: The amplification of the unsubstantiated claim regarding the dissolution of the International Legions (09:29Z, 09:33Z) is a deliberate attempt to project UAF manpower problems and demoralize foreign volunteer elements.
3. Internal RF Propaganda: The use of alarmist "demographic collapse" narratives (09:10Z) by key RF channels (Rybar) serves as a domestic mobilization tool, justifying military action and heightened nationalism by framing the conflict as an existential struggle for ethnic survival.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate tactical environment is defined by the expiring window for the GRAU preparatory fire (P1 CR, NLT 1030Z). The RF has completed reinforcement and executed pre-assault strategic strikes.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Immediate Artillery Initiation and Mechanized Thrust (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF will launch the massed artillery barrage (260th GRAU) in the next hour to achieve maximum shock effect. This will enable the mechanized assault force, now augmented by confirmed reserves, to attempt an operational breach along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, aiming to fix and isolate the UAF defensive hub.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Strategic Decapitation Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF follows the Kinzhal strike on MIC facilities with a strategic-level strike utilizing the Oreshnik MRBM (Belarus-based) against a critical UAF C2 node or a major logistics hub in Central or Western Ukraine (e.g., Kramatorsk C2, Lviv railway intermodal point), aiming to functionally paralyze UAF operational command concurrent with the Donetsk breakthrough attempt.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. AIR DEFENSE & MANEUVER (J3/OC EAST): EXPLOIT RF COMMITMENT.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Pre-authorized counter-battery fire utilizing high-end systems (e.g., HIMARS, newly acquired heavy artillery) must be initiated within T+15 minutes of P1 CR confirmation to disrupt the preparatory fire and fragment RF fire synchronization ahead of the mechanized push.
   • Action B: OC East must task local UAF units in Pokrovsk to continue aggressive probing and spoiling attacks against RF reserves confirmed by Syrskyi (09:14Z), seeking to delay their full integration into the assault force.

2. STRATEGIC DEFENSE (J6/J4): ADAPT TO HYPERSONIC THREAT.

   • Action A: Based on the confirmed Kinzhal use against MIC, J4 must immediately prioritize the dispersal and hardening of all remaining critical defense production and specialized repair facilities that operate outside of urban centers, minimizing future target value.
   • Action B: J6 must re-emphasize the strategic urgency of the Oreshnik MRBM threat (P2 CR, previous sitrep) to NATO partners, framing the confirmed Kinzhal usage as evidence of RF intent to conduct simultaneous, high-speed strategic strikes.