Situation Report

Situation Update (07:38Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Odesa Utility Collapse Confirmed: The energy strikes have caused a severe deterioration in conditions, with the majority of Odesa City now lacking both heating and water supply (07:23Z, RBK; 07:26Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH). This confirms the RF achieved secondary effects, inducing critical utility paralysis.
• RF Kinetic Depth Expansion: The RF massed kinetic operation has expanded geographically. Strikes targeting energy infrastructure are confirmed in Kirovohrad Oblast (07:26Z, RBK, HIGH), and UAVs are actively inbound to Poltava from the north (07:17Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
• Eastern Axis Precursor Fire: UAF Air Force reports active KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeting strongpoints in Donetsk Oblast (07:27Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH). This immediate action strongly suggests the RF is executing the final preparatory fire sequence ahead of the mechanized assault.
• Pokrovsk Axis Counter-Action: Ukrainian HUR Special Forces claim successful counter-assault operations on the contested Pokrovsk direction (07:23Z, RBK, MEDIUM). This indicates UAF forces are contesting the area aggressively, despite RF mechanized posture.
• UAF Force Restructure (UNCONFIRMED): BBC reports a prospective plan to dissolve the International Legions by EOY 2025, integrating foreign personnel into UAF assault troops (07:20Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Operational Zone (Deep Rear)

The RF strategy of degrading UAF operational depth has succeeded in transitioning from power paralysis to utility crisis in the critical Southern logistics hub of Odesa. The operational environment in Odesa is now severely compromised by the lack of essential services (water/heat), posing a significant C2 and logistical sustainment challenge. The expansion of kinetic strikes to Kirovohrad and the active threat to Poltava confirm the operational goal is to fix UAF Air Defense resources across the strategic rear, preventing reinforcement of the Eastern axis.

Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kherson)

Status: CRITICAL LOGISTICAL CONSTRAINT The primary focus must shift to maintaining essential C2 and logistics integrity under conditions of severe utility failure. The Artsyz rail hub and supporting infrastructure are highly vulnerable due to dependence on localized, contingency power and the inability to quickly replenish water/heating resources necessary for personnel sustainment. The high volume of AD engagement required across Southern and Central Ukraine indicates UAF AD forces are being stretched to their operational limits.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Sumy)

Status: IMMINENT MECHANIZED THRUST (KAB confirmed) The launch of KABs—precision guided munitions used for deep target destruction—is the tactical precursor confirming the MLCOA forecast of an imminent, massive ground assault. The delay window for the full artillery barrage (260th GRAU) is narrowing significantly, requiring maximum UAF readiness.

• Contested Ground (Pokrovsk): The presence and operational success of HUR Spetsnaz counter-assaults indicate RF forces have not yet consolidated control over the Pokrovsk salient, forcing them to expend time and resources securing the launch base for the main offensive.
• Lyman Direction: RF claims of neutralizing UAF UAV launch points (07:35Z, MoD Russia, LOW) suggest RF forces are engaged in active counter-reconnaissance to ensure the secrecy and success of maneuver elements staging north of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Assessment: CRITICAL (Simultaneous Utility Paralysis & Ground Force Initiation)

1. Kinetic Strike Objectives: The RF has achieved multi-domain success in the deep rear, transitioning the Odesa area into a crisis scenario (power, water, heat loss). This directly supports the maneuver component by degrading C2 resilience and complicating UAF logistical reinforcement.
2. Synchronization Timeline: The detected KAB launches (07:27Z) suggest the RF has resolved prior synchronization issues (noted in the 07:08Z sitrep) and is now executing the final pre-assault checklist. The probability of the full 260th GRAU barrage initiating before 1000Z is now exceptionally high.
3. Information Exploitation: RF IO is immediately leveraging sensitive diplomatic claims (conditional US security guarantees, EU accession delays) to introduce doubt regarding Ukraine's strategic support and potentially influence operational decision-making toward stabilization instead of counter-offense.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF is demonstrating robust counter-action capabilities, specifically:

• HUR SOF: High-value asset commitment to local counter-assaults on the critical Pokrovsk axis (07:23Z) to delay RF exploitation.
• Strategic Manpower Reallocation: The potential dissolution of the International Legions and integration into assault troops suggests a strategic pivot toward maximizing offensive capabilities in anticipation of protracted, high-attrition conventional warfare.

Information environment / disinformation

1. RF Strategic Exploitation (Diplomatic): RF media is intensely promoting the unconfirmed Axios claim that US security guarantees similar to NATO Article 5 would require a UAF withdrawal from Donbas (07:32Z). This narrative attempts to undermine UAF morale in the East and sow discord among Western allies.
2. Odesa Strike Amplification: RF sources are providing specific visual BDA (substation photo, port hit video) to maximize the psychological impact of the utility collapse in Odesa.
3. UAF Resource Strain: Urgent calls for donations (07:33Z) suggest UAF forces are facing immediate, high-volume resource requirements necessary to sustain operations under the current kinetic pressure.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next three hours (07:38Z – 10:38Z) are the most critical operational window for the Eastern front.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Full GRAU Initiation & Mechanized Breach (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF will proceed with the immediate artillery barrage (following the KAB softening), initiating the full 260th GRAU preparatory fire NLT 1000Z. This will enable synchronized mechanized columns to attempt a rapid breach aimed at cutting the E50/T0504 highways feeding Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Continuation of Utility Paralysis followed by EA Campaign (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF maintains pressure on Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Poltava, forcing UAF AD and logistical units to dissipate effort. Simultaneously, RF initiates a coordinated, broad-spectrum Electronic Attack (EA) across OC South and OC East, degrading UAF C2 functionality precisely as the mechanized assault hits the Pokrovsk line.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. PRIORITY C2 & UTILITY (J6/OC SOUTH): EXECUTE UTILITY FAILURE CONTINGENCY PLAN.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Deploy emergency response teams to guarantee water and heating for critical military facilities, C2 nodes, and humanitarian infrastructure in Odesa. Activate all pre-staged water purification and heating assets.
   • Action B: J6 must initiate immediate frequency rotation for all mission-critical communications (OC South/East) and rely exclusively on SATCOM and resilient relay nodes, anticipating the immediate follow-on Electronic Attack (EA) within the next 6 hours.

2. FIRE SUPPORT (J3/OC EAST): COUNTER-BOMBARDMENT AND COUNTER-BATTERY.

   • Action A: Prioritize target acquisition and execution of strikes against detected KAB launch platforms operating over Donetsk Oblast to minimize pre-assault attrition.
   • Action B: Upon P1 CR confirmation, execute the standing counter-battery plan within 15 minutes, dedicating maximum available fires to suppress the lead RF artillery groupings.

3. STRATCOM/DIPLOMACY (MFA/StratCom): COUNTER DIPLOMATIC COERCION.

   • Action A: Officially and immediately denounce any notion of territorial concession as a prerequisite for security guarantees, focusing the narrative on unified Western support and continued commitment to the 1991 borders.