Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 06:38Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Southern Logistics Under Renewed, Sustained Assault: New UAV groups are confirmed inbound for Artsyz and Odesa, validating the MLCOA forecast of deep logistics neutralization. Over two dozen UAVs were reported simultaneously operating over the Odesa region (06:32Z, 06:13Z, Air Force/Sternenko, HIGH).
• Kherson Infrastructure Damage Confirmed: RF massed strikes have resulted in significant energy supply interruptions and blackouts across Kherson City and parts of the Oblast (06:19Z, 06:25Z, RBK-U/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
• Mykolaiv UAV Threat Persistence: Multiple new enemy UAV groups are confirmed operating over Mykolaiv City, including new ingress trajectories originating from the north, stressing AD coverage (06:11Z, Air Force, HIGH).
• Slovak Financial Veto Confirmed: Slovak PM Fico confirmed intent to block EU credit for Ukraine utilizing frozen Russian assets, confirming immediate diplomatic friction regarding financial sustainment (06:21Z, Operatsia Z, HIGH).
• RF Activity in Sumy Direction: RF sources claim successful reconnaissance and strike operations near Myropillia (Sumy direction) resulting in the destruction of Western equipment (06:33Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Operational Zone (Deep Rear)

RF kinetic effort remains focused on systematically degrading UAF C2, logistics, and energy resilience across the operational depth. Attacks confirm reach into Central Ukraine (Dnipro) and ongoing counter-battery targeting of civilian infrastructure (Nikopol). UAF deep strike capability is confirmed active (Saratov, Kursk).

Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kherson)

Status: SEVERE LOGISTICS & ENERGY DEGRADATION

The operational strategy to isolate OC South is fully active and achieving measurable degradation:

• Odesa/Artsyz: The saturation attack is sustained, with over twenty UAVs confirmed operating simultaneously, confirming the multi-domain pressure on the maritime corridor and deep rear logistics. New UAV groups continue to target the high-value Artsyz rail hub (06:32Z, Air Force, HIGH).
• Mykolaiv: RF UAV groups approaching from the north suggest adaptive enemy routing to bypass established UAF air defense corridors (06:11Z, Air Force, HIGH).
• Kherson: RF massed strikes successfully targeted the energy grid, resulting in confirmed city-wide and oblast-wide blackouts (06:19Z, 06:25Z, RBK-U/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH). This successful degradation of a major node compounds the pressure on OC South logistics and C2 resilience.

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Sumy)

Status: IMMINENT GROUND ASSAULT

The continued absence of ground maneuver or preparatory fire reports since the last sitrep suggests the RF is in the final, synchronized staging phase.

• Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka: Expect initiation of the mass artillery barrage (260th GRAU) NLT 0700Z.
• Sumy Direction: RF claims of successful reconnaissance/strike near Myropillia indicate active probing and attempt to fix UAF reserves or identify logistics concentrations in the northern sector, likely aimed at tying down UAF assets ahead of the main offensive (06:33Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Ground Assault Imminent / Logistics Degradation)

1. Critical Logistics Stress: The RF is executing a synchronized, high-tempo UAV saturation campaign targeting multiple critical nodes (Odesa ports, Artsyz rail hub, Mykolaiv C2/crossings, Kherson energy). This coordinated effort aims to collapse the UAF logistics and C2 redundancy across OC South (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
2. Synchronization of Eastern Offensive: The operational picture on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis is characterized by the absence of activity, confirming that the RF shaping phase is complete. Initiation of the mechanized thrust and the associated fire support is assessed as highly probable within the next 60 minutes (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
3. Escalated IO Targeting Diplomatic Cohesion: RF state media is immediately leveraging confirmed diplomatic friction (Slovak veto on EU credit) to reinforce the narrative of collapsing Western support, coinciding with high-level US diplomatic activity reported for Berlin (06:21Z, 06:12Z, HIGH).

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense Command (PvK) remains engaged against highly dense UAV swarms over Odesa (06:37Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH). UAF deep strike operations continue to force internal resource allocation decisions in the RF deep rear, confirmed by BDA reports from Saratov (fatalities confirmed) and kinetic impact in Kursk Oblast (06:24Z, 06:26Z, HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

1. Financial Veto Exploitation: The confirmation of Slovakia's intent to block the EU financial mechanism using Russian assets is being maximized by RF sources (06:21Z, Operatsia Z, HIGH). This is the primary IO target for the immediate 12-hour window, aimed at undermining donor confidence.
2. Anti-Zelensky Narrative: Official RF communications are attempting to link Western politicians to corruption involving President Zelensky via "blackmail" claims (06:15Z, TASS, HIGH). This preempts and seeks to influence the high-level diplomatic meetings scheduled for Berlin.
3. Internal Mobilization: Pro-Russian information channels continue to disseminate religious-nationalist content, linking historical figures and Orthodox themes (St. Alexander Nevsky, St. George) to the conflict to reinforce resilience and ideological justification for the conflict among the domestic Russian audience.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The immediate threat is the coordinated initiation of the ground offensive in the East, synchronized with the sustained degradation of the Southern logistics chain.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

GRAU Initiation & Mechanized Thrust (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The synchronized artillery preparation (260th GRAU) begins NLT 0700Z on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, followed by immediate mechanized exploitation aimed at breaching UAF forward defenses.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Operational Paralysis of OC South (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The RF achieves total and simultaneous disruption of C2 and logistics across the South, specifically by destroying the operational capacity of the Artsyz rail hub and sustaining the Kherson/Mykolaiv energy blackouts. This isolates the Southern grouping, preventing timely repositioning or reinforcement ahead of the Eastern offensive.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. PRIORITY AD/LOGISTICS (J3/OC SOUTH): DEFEND DEEP LOGISTICS TO FAILURE.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Re-task all available mobile AD assets (SHORAD/VSHORAD) to establish layered point defenses protecting the Artsyz rail hub and associated supply infrastructure. This site is currently under confirmed, high-priority attack.
   • Action B: Immediately activate contingency power generation for C2 nodes and critical infrastructure in Kherson and Mykolaiv, minimizing downtime caused by confirmed grid attacks.

2. MANEUVER & FIRE SUPPORT (J3/OC EAST): EXECUTE COUNTER-BATTERY PLAN.

   • Action A: Pre-emptively task reconnaissance elements to confirm the moment of 260th GRAU initiation. Immediately execute Phase 1 counter-battery fire against pre-identified RF artillery staging points to disrupt the saturation barrage and support follow-on mechanized defenses.
   • Action B: Utilize the current tactical lull to confirm final placement of anti-tank obstacles and engineering defenses along the likely RF mechanized exploitation corridor northwest of Pokrovsk toward Konstantinovka.