Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 05:38Z, 13 DEC 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Missile Strike Wave Concludes in South: The initial wave of deep missile strikes across Central Ukraine has concluded, with the final targets confirmed in Mykolaiv Oblast. Air alerts for Kyiv have been canceled (05:15Z, KMVA, HIGH).
• Targeting Refinement of Logistics Artery: CR trajectories west of Kropyvnytskyi shifted course toward Pervomaisk (05:09Z, Vanek, HIGH) and then towards Trihaty (Mykolaiv Oblast, 05:17Z, Vanek, HIGH). This confirms RF intent to sever the critical logistics corridor linking OC Central and OC South.
• Mykolaiv Infrastructure Struck: Confirmed kinetic impacts occurred in Mykolaiv city (05:21Z, Senkevich, HIGH). Missiles, potentially identified as Iskander-K (05:16Z, Vanek, MEDIUM), targeted critical nodes including the area around Varvarivka (bridge approach) and Zorya. Local officials confirm critical and industrial infrastructure were hit (05:18Z, RBK-U, HIGH).
• Sustained UAV Saturation on Odesa Flank: Immediately following the missile wave, RF forces initiated new UAV groups approaching the Odesa coast (Lebedivka, Hrybivka/Chornomorsk) (05:24Z, Air Force, HIGH). Further groups are targeting Tatarbunary (05:34Z, Air Force, HIGH), maintaining pressure on logistics routes near the Danube Delta.
• UAF Deep Strike Confirmed: RF official sources confirmed fatalities (2 individuals) and infrastructure damage resulting from drone attacks in Saratov Oblast (05:32Z, TASS, HIGH). This confirms successful UAF penetration of the RF deep rear defense.

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Operational picture (by sector)

Strategic Operational Zone (Deep Rear)

Status: SHIFTING FOCUS / CRITICAL LOGISTICS INTERDICTION

The RF achieved rapid kinetic synchronization, concluding the deep missile phase and immediately transitioning to persistent UAV attacks. The primary focus of the concluding missile phase was the geographic isolation of OC South.

• Axis Mykolaiv/Odesa: The CR flight path analysis indicates highly complex maneuvering, initially targeting central hubs (Kropyvnytskyi) before diverting southwest to interdict secondary logistics lines (Pervomaisk, Balta/Novo Ukrayinka) and finally striking primary C2/logistics nodes in Mykolaiv (Varvarivka/Zorya).
• Dnipro/Poltava: A UAV strike was confirmed in Dnipro, causing damage to a non-operational building and vehicles, indicating successful penetration of local AD (05:30Z, Dnipro OMA, HIGH). A UAV group is tracking toward Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) (05:28Z, Air Force, HIGH).

Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv)

Status: KINETIC IMPACT CONFIRMED

The sustained multi-domain attack (CR + UAV) has caused confirmed damage to critical and industrial infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast. Internet connectivity disruptions are reported across Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kherson regions (05:19Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM). The current UAV swarm is targeting key maritime access points and the coastal supply line (Lebedivka, Tatarbunary).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia)

Status: FIRE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGH / GRAU THREAT PENDING

The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 637 RF strikes across 16 settlements in the last 24 hours (05:10Z, Zaporizhzhia OMA, HIGH), maintaining heavy preparatory fire. There is no new information regarding the status of the 260th GRAU initiation, which remains the critical trigger for the imminent ground assault (anticipated NLT 0630Z).

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Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Ground Assault Imminent)

1. Kinetic Synchronization Achievement: RF forces successfully executed the final phase of operational shaping, transitioning seamlessly from high-speed, high-value missile targeting to persistent, low-cost UAV saturation. This indicates effective C2 and adherence to the operational timeline.
2. Target Priority Shift: The immediate threat focus has concluded deep strikes in Kyiv and shifted definitively to severing the logistics lifelines supporting OC South. The confirmed targeting of potential rail/road links near Pervomaisk and the critical bridge approach in Mykolaiv aims to preemptively fix UAF reserves and starve the Southern sector.
3. Weapon System Identification: The potential use of Iskander-K (GLCM variant) in the Mykolaiv strike suggests the RF is employing its limited inventory of high-precision assets to neutralize hardened infrastructure targets.
4. Imminent Ground Trigger: With the operational shaping phase largely complete, the probability of the 260th GRAU initiation on the Eastern axis remains extremely high within the next 60 minutes (MLCOA timeline remains NLT 0630Z).

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Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Force units maintained high-fidelity tracking, successfully issuing timely warnings and allowing civilian and military assets to take cover. UAF deep strike operations against RF territory continue to achieve kinetic success, evidenced by the confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage in Saratov Oblast. UAF General Staff reported estimated RF losses of 1300 personnel over the last 24 hours (05:25Z, RBK-U, HIGH).

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Information environment / disinformation

1. Exaggerated BDA Claims: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are leveraging the confirmed internet disruptions in Southern Ukraine, falsely claiming the successful use of high-value systems like Kinzhal (Hypersonic) and Caliber (Naval CR) to cause the damage. This aims to inflate the perceived success and technological superiority of the RF strike capability (MEDIUM confidence of IO intent).
2. Confirmation of UAF Deep Reach: TASS reporting on the drone strikes in Saratov provides unintended corroboration of UAF deep strike capacity, forcing the RF government to acknowledge successful attacks on domestic infrastructure and personnel.
3. Diplomatic Context: Preparations for a major diplomatic meeting in Berlin involving President Zelenskyy, Macron, and other senior officials confirm high international engagement ahead of the anticipated RF offensive (05:20Z, STERNENKO, HIGH).

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Outlook (next 6-12h)

The current operational window is centered on the final transition to ground maneuver in the East, following the successful conclusion of the kinetic preparatory phase in the South.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

GRAU Initiation & Coordinated Ground Thrust (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The culmination of the shaping phase dictates that RF forces initiate the mass artillery barrage (260th GRAU) on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis NLT 0630Z. This will be immediately followed by synchronized mechanized thrusts attempting to breach UAF lines and exploit the logistical isolation of the Southern Operational Zone (OC South).

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

Reinforcement of Southern Interdiction (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Having achieved initial success against Mykolaiv infrastructure, the RF may rapidly deploy secondary strike groups (UAV/CR) to confirm BDA and neutralize any emergency measures (e.g., mobile bridges, C2 hardening) in the Pervomaisk/Trihaty/Balta/Varvarivka triangle before UAF can re-establish redundancy. This would solidify the operational isolation of OC South faster than anticipated.

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Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. PRIORITY C2/MANEUVER (J3/OC EAST): PREPARE FOR GRAU BREACH.

   • Action A (CRITICAL): Maintain maximum readiness for counter-battery fire. Assume the GRAU initiation NLT 0630Z. UAF C2 must authorize immediate preparatory long-range fires against pre-identified RF staging areas (Volnovakha/Ilovaisk switches) to disrupt the massive artillery supply flow.
   • Action B: Deploy engineer and counter-mobility assets immediately to harden secondary logistics nodes around Pervomaisk and the inland approach routes to Odesa, creating immediate redundancy for the lines damaged by the recent strikes.

2. LOGISTICS & INFRASTRUCTURE (J4/OC SOUTH): IMMEDIATE DAMAGE MITIGATION.

   • Action A: Task force immediate BDA teams to assess the Varvarivka bridge approach integrity and adjacent Mykolaiv infrastructure. Prioritize establishing alternative transport routes over the Southern Bug river within the next two hours.
   • Action B: Activate reserve communication nodes and satellite links immediately in Mykolaiv and Odesa to counter the confirmed internet/cyber disruption (05:19Z).

3. AIR DEFENSE (J3/OC SOUTH/CENTRAL): COUNTER UAV SATURATION.

   • Action A: Re-task mobile SHORAD assets from the recently cleared Kyiv area (air alert canceled) and redeploy them to provide point defense for the threatened logistics nodes near Tatarbunary and Pervomaisk, where current UAV concentration is highest.