Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC 03:38Z, Dec 13, 2025)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Deep Strike Expansion: Enemy UAV saturation operations have expanded and are confirmed targeting specific critical nodes outside the immediate Odesa/Kropyvnytskyi zone, notably confirmed activity over Kryvyi Rih (03:24:35, Air Force, HIGH) and directed towards Mykolaiv (03:30:57, Air Force, HIGH).
• Odesa Threat Imminent: Specific local reports confirm 4x UAVs (mopeds) approaching the Usatove/Odesa axis from the Northwest (03:33:39, Local Intel, HIGH), indicating an immediate, high-density kinetic threat to the city's northwestern perimeter infrastructure.
• Central Axis Pressure: Extensive UAV groups previously observed in Northern/Central Oblasts (Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad) continue their concerted southward trajectory (03:13:39, Air Force, HIGH), maintaining fragmentation pressure on UAF Air Defense Command Center (OC Center) resources.
• GRAU Initiation Window Active (No Confirmation): The projected window for the 260th GRAU preparatory fire (0300Z-0600Z) is active. As of 03:38Z, there is NO confirmation of mass artillery ignition on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, elevating the uncertainty regarding RF initiation timing (Gap P1 Critical).
• Diplomatic Coercion Continuation: Diplomatic signaling continues with former US President Trump declining to detail the mechanics of a proposed "free economic zone" in Russian-occupied Donbas (03:13:32, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH), reinforcing the strategic goal of normalizing RF territorial control through external mediation.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih)

Status: PEAK KINETIC SATURATION / CRITICAL LOGISTICS THREAT

RF forces are achieving peak kinetic synchronization designed to overload UAF AD. The targeting vector previously aimed only at Odesa has broadened to include specific, confirmed threats to:

1. Odesa: Immediate threat to the Usatove-Odesa axis (03:33:39).
2. Mykolaiv: Confirmed UAV trajectory toward the city (03:30:57).
3. Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed UAV activity over the city (03:24:35), posing a significant threat to internal UAF rail logistics and mobilization centers.

This aggressive, multi-node targeting confirms the RF intent to disrupt logistics (Mykolaiv/Odesa ports/rail) and UAF internal C2/resource allocation (Kryvyi Rih).

Central Axis (Kropyvnytskyi/Poltava)

Status: SUSTAINED FIXING OPERATIONS

RF UAVs are executing a broad, coordinated movement south across five central/northern oblasts (03:13:39). This action fixes UAF mobile AD systems in the central sector, preventing their timely redeployment south to Odesa or east to support the SKDH (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk Defensive Hub).

Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia)

Status: WATCH STATE (CULMINATION DELAY / GRAU PENDING)

The primary concern remains the imminent ground operation. The expected 0300Z initiation trigger for the mass artillery barrage has passed without confirmed ignition (Gap P1). This delay could be tactical (awaiting optimal deep strike synchronization), or logistical/C2 related (difficulty coordinating the 260th GRAU delivery). UAF forces must maintain the highest level of readiness for the barrage and subsequent mechanized thrusts from Pokrovsk and Siversk.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (AD Overload / Preparatory Phase Culmination)

1. Kinetic Synchronization Success: RF C2 is executing a highly successful AD fragmentation strategy. By activating simultaneous, specific threats against Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kryvyi Rih, RF forces compel UAF C2 to dissipate scarce mobile AD assets, reducing air cover effectiveness over the Eastern ground offensive axes.
2. Target Priority Shift: The explicit targeting of Kryvyi Rih (03:24:35) is a significant development, assessing potential risk to crucial Central Ukrainian logistics and mobilization centers, rather than solely coastal infrastructure.
3. GRAU Delay Risk: The non-initiation of the 260th GRAU barrage within the projected window (0300Z-0600Z) introduces operational risk for RF, potentially allowing UAF forces to further harden defensive lines or conduct pre-emptive counter-fire. However, the delay may also indicate a more highly synchronized attack timing based on the current deep strike BDA.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense forces are fully committed across five vectors (Sumy, Chernihiv, Central Oblasts, Mykolaiv, Odesa). Immediate priority must be given to defending high-value logistics and C2 targets (Kryvyi Rih rail/infrastructure) while maintaining adequate protection for Odesa port assets (Usatove axis). UAF maneuver forces in the East must continue implementing dispersal and hardening protocols despite the GRAU timing ambiguity.

Information environment / disinformation

RF continues to utilize kinetic leverage simultaneous with diplomatic signaling. The new focus on a "free economic zone" in occupied Donbas (03:13:32) is a strategic step toward building international consensus around a settlement that codifies Russian territorial gains, directly undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and maximizing diplomatic pressure just as kinetic operations peak. This narrative attempts to portray the conflict as entering a post-war economic phase while fighting is intensifying.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The next six hours are defined by the culmination of the deep strike campaign and the initiation decision point for the Eastern ground assault.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

GRAU Initiation After Deep Strike Peak (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces will finalize the current UAV wave, aiming to score decisive hits on logistical infrastructure in Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih (03:24:35, 03:30:57). Once the deep strike BDA confirms UAF AD is maximally degraded or relocated, the 260th GRAU preparatory fire will commence against the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis (projected 0430Z-0600Z, adjusted for observed delay).

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

C2/Logistics Paralysis and Immediate Thrust (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Successful RF kinetic strikes on Kryvyi Rih and Odesa communications nodes or rail junctions (03:24:35) cripple UAF internal logistics flows necessary for sustaining the SKDH. Simultaneously, RF mechanized units, utilizing the absence of UAF AD due to fragmentation, launch a rapid, highly successful ground assault before the GRAU barrage even finishes, exploiting the Siversk/Pokrovsk breaches against disorganized UAF defenses.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. PRIORITY AIR DEFENSE (J3/OC SOUTH/CENTER): DEFEND CRITICAL LOGISTICS NODES.
   • Action A (CRITICAL): Immediately prioritize and reinforce AD coverage for the Kryvyi Rih rail junctions and associated logistics hubs (03:24:35). The loss of this infrastructure poses an immediate strategic risk to sustainment in the East.
   • Action B: Utilize localized, point-defense assets (Mobile Fire Teams/MANPADS) against the low-flying threats approaching Odesa/Usatove (03:33:39) to conserve heavier AD systems for high-altitude/missile threats.
2. C2/MANEUVER (J3/OC EAST): MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT FOR GRAU INITIATION.
   • Action A: Despite the 38-minute delay, the 0300Z-0600Z window remains highly critical. Forward C2 elements must confirm physical separation and redundancy plans are fully active until 0600Z.
3. STRATCOM/DIPLOMACY (MFA): COUNTER FEZ NARRATIVE.
   • Action A: Issue a coordinated response linking RF escalation (Kryvyi Rih/Odesa strikes) with the diplomatic proposals (FEZ), emphasizing that peace proposals based on territorial surrender under active kinetic assault are a form of political warfare and unacceptable blackmail.