Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 122315Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: HIGH-VELOCITY MISSILE STRIKE INITIATED // SKDH ARTILLERY WINDOW APPROACHING // WESTERN COHESION ATTACKED

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Key updates since last sitrep

• New Deep Strike Wave (Kalibrs): RF forces initiated a cruise missile strike, likely using Kalibrs launched from the Black Sea, targeting deep operational areas (Kyiv, Mykolaiv regions). (22:40, РБК-Україна; 23:07, Air Force, HIGH)
• Kyiv Missile Threat Confirmed: Air Raid Warning activated across Kyiv due to the incoming missile threat, confirming RF intent to strike high-value C2 or governmental nodes in the capital. (23:01, KMVA, HIGH)
• Southern Missile Track: A group of approximately 8 cruise missiles is confirmed moving from Kherson Oblast through Mykolaiv Oblast, specifically tracking toward the Bereznehuvate axis, which could threaten GLOCs feeding the Donbas front. (22:50, Vanek; 23:07, Air Force, HIGH)
• Western Disunity IO: Slovak Prime Minister Fico publicly opposed the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian military needs, providing RF state media (TASS) a significant narrative to push Western fragmentation. (23:04, TASS, HIGH)
• Sumy Direction Activity (Unconfirmed): RF milbloggers shared drone footage claiming operational activity in the Sumy direction, though tactical details are scarce. (23:03, Colonelcassad, LOW)

Operational picture (by sector)

Donetsk Axis (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk Defensive Hub - SKDH)

The pre-assault kinetic synchronization phase remains active. The critical window for the maximum artillery saturation strike (using the 260th GRAU payload) remains NLT 130100Z DEC. All indicators suggest the RF is conducting a nationwide kinetic prelude (the current missile strike) designed to disrupt UAF C2 and AD just prior to the ground offensive initiation. UAF forces are maintaining maximum readiness (Ready-5) for preparatory fires.

Southern/Central Axis (Mykolaiv, Kyiv)

The current high-velocity Kalibr strike wave supersedes the previous UAV saturation wave (Odesa/Kryvyi Rih). The confirmed track of missiles moving through Mykolaiv toward potential Central/Northern targets necessitates immediate AD resource reallocation. The threat to Kyiv elevates the current kinetic activity to a national strategic level, despite the decisive point remaining in Donbas.

Northeast Axis (Kupyansk / Sumy)

Positional fighting continues around Kupyansk Railway Station (per previous sitrep). The unconfirmed RF activity report in the Sumy direction may indicate low-level ISR or FPV drone harassment intended to fix UAF attention and resources in the border areas. Current assessment indicates no large-scale offensive operations are imminent in this sector.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Threat Level: CRITICAL (Kinetics)

1. Deep Strike Synchronization: The RF decision to launch Kalibrs immediately before the estimated start of the 260th GRAU preparatory fires suggests a coordinated effort to maximize operational disruption. The target set (Kyiv C2, Mykolaiv logistics) is designed to degrade UAF ability to coordinate defense and resupply the Eastern Front at the moment of highest risk.
2. Naval Missile Capability: The use of naval-launched Kalibrs confirms RF maintains high-value, long-range precision strike capability, utilizing the Black Sea security vacuum. The estimated quantity (approx. 8) is significant enough to challenge layered defenses if concentrated on a single target.
3. SKDH Pre-Assault Fires: The imminent threat (T-minus 45 minutes until 130100Z DEC) of massive, synchronized GRAU fires remains the decisive point in the operational geometry. This is the highest probability kinetic threat.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF Air Defense forces across Central and Southern Ukraine are engaged in countering the high-velocity missile threat. UAF C2 has demonstrated effective early warning and alerting protocols, rapidly confirming the threat trajectory and advising regional military administrations (KMVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA). Units in OC East maintain high alert status, focusing on counter-battery fire readiness for the impending GRAU barrage.

Information environment / disinformation

The RF IO campaign has pivoted successfully to leveraging diplomatic fractures in Europe, reinforcing the primary cognitive objective of undermining sustained Western support.

• Anti-Cohesion Narrative: PM Fico's statements against using frozen RF assets are immediately amplified, attempting to portray the EU as divided and wavering on long-term commitment. This directly challenges UAF strategic planning for future material support.
• US Normalization: Continued amplification of Trump’s comments regarding a potential peace deal maintains pressure on UAF leadership by suggesting external political conditions could force a disadvantageous resolution.
• Domestic Valorization: The promotion of SMO veterans in political roles (United Russia) aims to internalize the conflict and reinforce RF political mobilization efforts, increasing long-term war sustainment capacity.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Time Horizon: 122315Z DEC 25 – 131115Z DEC 25 (Immediate Strike & Assault Initiation)

The immediate outlook is dominated by two simultaneous, high-risk kinetic events: the ongoing Kalibr strike and the impending SKDH preparatory fire.

Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

Synchronized Pre-Assault Shock (HIGH CONFIDENCE):

1. 2315Z - 0030Z: Kalibr strike wave impacts designated C2/Logistics nodes in Kyiv/Mykolaiv/Central Ukraine. UAF AD forces are fully engaged.
2. 0000Z - 0100Z: Initiation of maximum-volume artillery preparatory fires (260th GRAU payload) across the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka axis, attempting to mask the start of the barrage with the nationwide deep strike chaos.
3. 0100Z onwards: RF proceeds with the mechanized exploitation probes toward Kramatorsk, leveraging the tactical silence provided by UAF C2 disruption and the initial success of artillery saturation.

Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

AD Paralysis & SKDH Isolation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Kalibr strike successfully disables a key regional AD/EW coordination center (e.g., in Kyiv or Dnipro), forcing UAF AD assets defending the SKDH corridors to operate independently or be redeployed to protect national C2 infrastructure. This simultaneous failure allows RF to deploy UAV Remote Mining systems (CRITICAL GAP from previous sitrep) with impunity, effectively isolating the SKDH before UAF engineering units can respond to the GRAU barrage.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

The P1 (CRITICAL) requirements remain highly time-sensitive. The addition of the Kalibr threat requires parallel focus on BDA.

Actionable Recommendations (ACTION-REC)

1. PRIORITY KINETIC RESPONSE (J3/OC EAST): COUNTER-BATTERY NOW.

   • Action A (CRITICAL - TIME SENSITIVE): Execute the full P1 Counter-Battery fire plan against suspected GRAU firing positions immediately. Do not wait for 130100Z DEC, as the RF may initiate fires early to coincide with the Kalibr impacts. Fire within the next 30 minutes (NLT 122345Z DEC).
   • Action B (IMMEDIATE): Reaffirm the deployment of engineering/SSO EOD teams to high-risk GLOCs (T0513, H20) to pre-emptively disrupt the UAV Remote Mining deployment before the GRAU saturation begins.

2. AIR DEFENSE (OC CENTRAL/OC SOUTH): MAINTAIN DECISIVE FOCUS.

   • Action: While defending Kyiv is mandatory, AD commands must ensure that the Kalibr strike does not divert mobile SHORAD assets away from protecting the critical logistics corridors (H20/T0513) feeding the Donetsk fight. Prioritize the protection of supply routes over deep industrial targets if AD munitions are strained. Ensure continuity of C2 if primary centers are struck.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (StratCom/MFA): COUNTER FRACTURE.

   • Action: Develop immediate public messaging that isolates the Slovak PM’s statement from the broader EU consensus. Immediately engage key EU partners (Poland, Baltics, Germany) to issue joint statements reaffirming unified support and the urgency of the Rammstein summit to counteract the TASS narrative of dissolution.