Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 120730Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS CRITICAL PRESSURE; GRAU INTERDICTION WINDOW CLOSING; PATRIOT SYSTEM THREATENED.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The Slovyansk-Kramatorsk Defensive Agglomeration (SKDA) continues to face critical pressure along the Pokrovsk Axis (Konstantinovka-Dimitrov/Myrnohrad). General Staff reports 49/174 total combat engagements occurred in this sector over the past 24 hours, confirming it as the RF main effort. The stability of the Dimitrov flank, west of Konstantinovka, is now the singular tactical factor preventing the acceleration of RF mechanized forces toward Kramatorsk.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Previous reporting holds: Low cloud ceiling and limited visibility continue to facilitate deep kinetic operations and complicate satellite/aerial reconnaissance necessary for high-priority logistics tracking.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are executing a synchronized operational cycle:

1. Deep Kinetic Preparation: Targeting high-value UAF strategic AD assets (claimed PATRIOT strike in Kharkiv region) to clear air space.
2. Tactical-Level Exploitation: Sustained ground pressure (Pokrovsk Axis) combined with high-volume IO (Dimitrov surrender claims).
3. Logistical Phasing: Finalizing the transport of the 260th GRAU cargo to forward depots to enable the surge NLT 130000Z DEC. UAF deep strike assets remain active, forcing high AD alert status around Moscow's key infrastructure (airport restrictions confirmed).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is to achieve an operational breakthrough in the Donbas NLT 130000Z DEC, enabled by fire superiority and strategic paralysis of UAF AD and C2 elements.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed high rate of engagement on the Pokrovsk axis (49 battles) shows RF commitment to a grinding, high-attrition offensive preceding the expected artillery surge. The shift to actively targeting UAF PATRIOT systems indicates a calculated risk by RF to spend high-value Geran-2 assets against high-value UAF targets, signifying preparation for a major maneuver or air operation.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

CRITICAL LOGISTICS WINDOW (P1 REMAINS): The 260th GRAU cargo is in transit. The strike window closes NLT 121800Z DEC (10.5 hours remaining). Interdiction is paramount to mitigating the upcoming RF kinetic surge. Failure ensures RF fire superiority for the mechanized breakthrough attempt.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains effective, managing AD response to UAF deep strikes (Moscow AD activity) while maintaining offensive tempo. UAF C2 effectiveness is challenged by localized high-volume fighting in the Pokrovsk sector and synchronized IO attacks targeting unit cohesion (Dimitrov surrender claims).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Units on the Pokrovsk Axis are currently bearing the brunt of the RF offensive (49 confirmed engagements). Readiness remains focused on defense, supported by high-profile morale messaging (Day of Ground Forces celebration). Personnel policy stress is confirmed by the SZCh reassignment directive.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (AD Asset Degradation): Unverified, but highly probable, RF targeting of a PATRIOT system (Kharkiv region) reflects a critical challenge to UAF AD resource protection.
• Setback (Internal Stability): Public criticism concerning inadequate local defense funding in Kharkiv signals potential friction between military/central command and regional civil authorities, potentially impacting operational readiness of local defense units.
• Setback (Information/Maneuver): The amplified Dimitrov surrender video requires immediate C2 verification and denial to prevent tactical morale failure.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

AD resource allocation remains the most severe constraint, now compounded by the active targeting of UAF long-range AD systems. Manpower is stretched, as evidenced by the high operational tempo (49 battles) and the use of disciplinary measures for assault unit resupply.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

1. Tactical Collapse (Heightened Threat): The Dimitrov surrender claims (with footage) is the most immediate threat. This narrative aims to demoralize adjacent UAF units and justify the impending RF mechanized push.
2. Strategic Isolation: RF IO is actively leveraging Western media reports regarding US-EU diplomatic friction (Trump criticism) to support the MDCOA narrative that Western aid is unstable and unreliable. This reinforces the need for immediate counter-IO regarding the 'Referendum' claim.
3. Economic Warfare Messaging: The Euroclear lawsuit filing projects RF assertiveness in the global legal and financial domain, intended to challenge the legitimacy of Western financial controls.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF StratCom is attempting to maintain high morale via public holidays (Ground Forces Day). However, the internal friction regarding Kharkiv defense funding introduces a risk of localized distrust in civil authorities, which the enemy can exploit to undermine the defense effort near the northern front (Slovyansk flank).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The reports of deepening US-EU tension increase the urgency of neutralizing the "Zelensky Referendum" claim. Any perceived lack of UAF resolve or internal disunity could provide political cover for hesitant Western partners to slow or halt security assistance.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) – (HIGH Confidence)

1. GRAU-Enabled Penetration: Assuming interdiction failure, RF initiates overwhelming preparatory fire saturation NLT 130000Z DEC. Mechanized forces will immediately exploit weaknesses identified in Dimitrov/Myrnohrad to drive toward Kramatorsk, cutting off the southern axis of the SKDA.
2. Aggressive AD Hunting: RF deep strike will prioritize follow-on strikes against identified or newly repositioned UAF long-range AD systems (e.g., NASAMS, HAWK, or remaining PATRIOT batteries) within the 100km radius of the SKDA advance corridor NLT 130900Z DEC.
3. IO Synchronization: RF will synchronize the start of the mechanized surge with high-volume IO claiming the SKDA is encircled, leveraging Dimitrov footage and US-EU friction reports to maximize operational paralysis in Kyiv.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) – (HIGH Confidence)

1. SKDA Operational Collapse: Overwhelming fire superiority from the GRAU surge combined with successful IO campaigns (Dimitrov) forces UAF defenses to shatter prematurely. The resulting mass rout necessitates the full, uncoordinated commitment of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserves. This allows the RF 37th GMRB to simultaneously breach the Zaporizhzhia retrograde corridor (Plan PHOENIX), leading to the isolation of UAF forces in the East and South.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS