Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 120630Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: GRAU INTERDICTION WINDOW CLOSING; SKDA DIMITROV PRESSURE CRITICAL; ODESA CIP DEGRADED BY STRIKE PACKAGE.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The Slovyansk-Kramatorsk Defensive Agglomeration (SKDA) remains the main effort. The critical tactical friction point is the Dimitrov/Myrnohrad axis, west of Konstantinovka. RF forces are leveraging breakthroughs in Konstantinovka by attempting to accelerate UAF tactical collapse through heavy kinetic pressure and intense Information Operations (IO) regarding mass surrender (Fact - RF media claims). The stability of this line is paramount to securing the rear area necessary for Plan PHOENIX retrograde (Zaporizhzhia).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant change. Low cloud cover and limited visibility continue to facilitate deep kinetic operations by both sides.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are prioritizing kinetic strikes to drain UAF strategic assets while concentrating fire support preparation for the main mechanized push in Donbas.

• RF Deep Strike: Confirmed successful strike on Odesa energy infrastructure (Fact - Odesa OBA 05:57Z).
• RF Internal Defense: AD activity is high across Russian territory (Fact - Moscow "Kover" signal active 06:09Z; 92 total UAVs claimed intercepted). This demonstrates RF commitment of high-value AD assets to static CIP.
• UAF Deep Strike: Active long-range UAS operations confirmed (Fact - Moscow airspace restrictions; probable strike on major RF refinery/NPZ).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is to initiate the decisive kinetic surge in the SKDA sector supported by strategic disruption (AD drain) and sustained psychological pressure.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF has committed to a high-volume offensive/defensive AD posture, attempting to saturate UAF deep strike attempts (claims 90+ intercepts) while maintaining a persistent, effective strike tempo on critical Ukrainian infrastructure (Odesa). The immediate tactical focus is leveraging the psychological effect of potential collapse in Dimitrov to avoid a protracted urban fight in Konstantinovka.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

CRITICAL LOGISTICS WINDOW (P1 REMAINS): The 260th GRAU cargo is in transit. The strike window is now less than 12 hours. Interdiction failure guarantees the material basis for the RF surge.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains robust, demonstrated by Putin's high-profile diplomatic activity in Turkmenistan, projecting external normalcy while internal kinetic operations (AD defense, Odesa strike) continue. Tactical C2 focuses on rapid IO amplification to exploit potential UAF local C2 friction.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains high, emphasized by the proactive StratCom messaging surrounding the Day of Ground Forces (12 DEC). UAF deep strike operations are successful and sustained, achieving confirmed BDA against high-value economic targets (Refinery/NPZ).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Deep Battle): Probable confirmed destruction or significant damage to a major Russian refinery/NPZ (MEDIUM Confidence). Continued demonstration of deep strike efficacy despite increased RF AD density.
• Setback (Kinetic Defense): Confirmed damage to Odesa energy infrastructure (Fact), confirming the successful application of RF AD resource drain strategy.
• Setback (Information/Maneuver): Extreme pressure and verified IO targeting the Dimitrov sector (DNR claims of mass surrender) requires immediate C2 verification and response.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The AD resource allocation constraint is confirmed and actively being exploited by the enemy. Immediate reinforcement of point defenses in Odesa CIP (Water/Energy) must be maintained concurrent with maximizing AD coverage for maneuver elements supporting the SKDA. Manpower constraints remain a factor, necessitating high-level morale messaging to offset internal friction (SZCh reassignment).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

1. Tactical Collapse Narrative: RF tactical media is utilizing video content to amplify unverified claims of mass UAF surrender in Dimitrov, specifically targeting the morale of forces holding the Konstantinovka flank.
2. Domestic Stabilization: Mironov's proposal for "credit amnesty" attempts to soften the social impact of mobilization and sustain the war effort domestically.
3. Strategic Distraction: Putin's focus on Turkmen investment projects and RF IO promoting the "Core 5" concept (excluding the G7) attempts to project geopolitical normalcy and influence Western policy ambiguity.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF StratCom is utilizing the Day of Ground Forces to proactively boost military and national morale. However, the confirmed kinetic damage in Odesa and high-pressure tactical IO regarding Dimitrov require immediate factual countering to prevent localized morale decay.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The unverified "Zelensky Referendum" claim (MDCOA) must be decisively refuted IMMEDIATELY to neutralize the risk of Western partners pausing aid commitments, especially given ongoing US political uncertainty regarding future support mechanisms.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) – (HIGH Confidence)

1. GRAU Kinetic Surge Initiation: RF initiates overwhelming preparatory fire saturation NLT 130000Z DEC, enabled by the 260th GRAU delivery (assuming interdiction failure). Mechanized forces will immediately exploit the Siversk-Konstantinovka axis, attempting to cut off Slovyansk.
2. Sustained AD Drain: RF will conduct follow-on combined arms/UAS strikes on critical Odesa CIP (targeting newly repaired nodes or water supply) NLT 130900Z DEC to force further UAF AD reallocation away from the Donbas main effort.
3. IO Escalation: RF StratCom will synchronize kinetic success with the "Zelensky Referendum" claim, attempting to maximize political paralysis in Kyiv and aid freezes in NATO capitals.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) – (HIGH Confidence)

1. SKDA Collapse and PHOENIX Interdiction: Rapid collapse of the Dimitrov/Myrnohrad axis due to overwhelming GRAU-enabled fire and IO pressure forces the premature, full commitment of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserves to prevent the isolation of Kramatorsk. This leaves the Zaporizhzhia retrograde corridor open to a breakthrough by the RF 37th GMRB, resulting in simultaneous operational defeat on Eastern and Southern fronts.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS