Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IMMEDIATE OPERATIONAL UPDATE

TIME: 110742Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: SITREP 110715Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains dominated by the approaching RF artillery saturation threshold (110800Z) on the Pokrovsk Axis, coinciding with high-tempo UAF deep strikes.

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): UAF forces continue to execute the emergency exfiltration of elements from Dimitrov. Visual confirmation (07:33Z) shows UAF Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks engaged in direct fire support near Pokrovsk, confirming the high value assigned to stabilizing the secondary defensive line.
• Siversk Axis: RF propaganda claims RF presence on the outskirts (07:14Z). While likely exaggerated for IO purposes, this confirms sustained, high-attrition pressure north of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration.
• Deep Rear Area: Confirmed UAF success against strategic RF infrastructure: A Russian oil production platform in the Caspian Sea has been struck and its operation halted (07:36Z). This represents a significant extension of UAF deep strike capability beyond traditional Black Sea AOR.
• RF Internal Area: Confirmed three UAS shot down flying towards Moscow (07:20Z), forcing flight diversions (Armenian PM flight affected - 07:23Z). This confirms sustained UAF deep strike pressure on RF civil-military C2 and transport.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) continues to degrade precision targeting. Low clouds and fog may assist the imminent Dimitrov withdrawal but complicate post-0800Z counter-battery fire.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF posture remains defensive, focused on controlled retrograde and high-value strategic counter-offensives (Deep Strikes). RF forces are fully committed to kinetic superiority in the next 15 minutes to maximize attrition against the Dimitrov pocket.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Exploit the maximum artillery window (NLT 110800Z) to fragment the Dimitrov exfiltration. INTENTION (STRATEGIC): Continue high-attrition offensive operations on the Eastern front while simultaneously building long-term manpower sustainment via highly questionable methods.

CAPABILITIES:

• Manpower Sustainment: RF is utilizing convicted serious criminals (rape, murder) in exchange for commutation of sentence for frontline service (ASTRA, 07:16Z). This provides a substantial, if low-quality, pool of manpower designed to absorb high attrition rates, indicating RF intends to sustain high-cost assaults indefinitely. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Air Defense: Demonstrated high readiness in the Moscow region (07:20Z). The recruitment drive for the Yaroslavl AD School (07:34Z) indicates a long-term commitment to upgrading RF strategic AD capabilities.
• IO/Financial Warfare: RF is rapidly weaponizing the economic damage caused by UAF deep strikes, claiming 600 billion RUB damage across 41 regions, and officially stating intent to seek compensation from Kyiv (07:30Z). This is a legal/IO maneuver designed to shift international perception of belligerence. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain reliant on decentralized support (fundraising appeals for generators/drones, 07:15Z). The use of prison recruitment (07:16Z) confirms that quality manpower constraints are outweighing concerns about unit discipline and cohesion, but the overall quantity of sustained personnel flow remains high.

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 shows high effectiveness in rapidly integrating battlefield kinetic damage (UAS strikes on Moscow/Tula) into official IO narratives (600 billion RUB claims). RF C2 in the Pokrovsk Axis is executing a textbook kinetic timetable, aiming for the maximum convergence of artillery at the pre-determined culmination point (0800Z). (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is CRITICAL but effective. The ability to deploy Leopard 2A4 MBTs at the immediate point of crisis (Pokrovsk, 07:33Z) suggests key assets are positioned for rapid response. The strategic success in the Caspian Sea demonstrates high readiness and effectiveness of long-range strike capabilities.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Strategic Deep Strike: Successful interdiction and forced halt of RF Caspian Sea oil platform operations (07:36Z). This is a significant blow to RF resource extraction and projection capability. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk Hold: Confirmed heavy armor commitment providing cover fire for the Dimitrov exfiltration (07:33Z). Setbacks:
• Time Constraint: Only 18 minutes remain until the anticipated RF artillery surge (0800Z), placing the exfiltrating elements under immense, imminent risk.
• Attrition/MIA: The appeal from the CoordHQ (07:16Z) for prisoner and MIA data suggests sustained high-attrition warfare continues to strain administrative resources.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Time: The critical window for Dimitrov exfiltration closes at 110800Z.
2. Strategic Exploitation: Follow-on targeting and intelligence exploitation of the Caspian Sea strike opportunity.
3. IO Support: Immediate integration of the Caspian Sea strike into UAF StratCom narrative to counter RF's '600 billion RUB' damage claims.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing highly synchronized campaigns:

1. Domestic Compensation Narrative: The 600 billion RUB damage claim (07:30Z) is a clear attempt to rally domestic support and set the stage for future legal demands on Kyiv, effectively framing UAF deep strikes as acts of terror requiring compensation.
2. Peace Plan Discord: RF media is amplifying reports suggesting a rift between the US and European officials regarding the proposed US economic plan for Russia's return to the world economy (07:39Z). The narrative is that the EU fears this allows RF to "rapidly rearm." This targets EU cohesion and attempts to delegitimize US diplomatic influence. (Confidence: HIGH)

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF officials are actively engaging in the diplomatic information space, providing amendments to the US peace plan focusing on critical issues like territory and ZNPP (07:21Z, 07:32Z). This helps maintain the narrative of Kyiv leading the diplomatic process despite battlefield pressure.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

High-stakes diplomatic maneuvering continues around US peace proposals. The reported US plan for Russia's economic re-integration (07:39Z) is a sensitive strategic issue that must be monitored, as European rejection (D-S belief 0.009) could signal a split in the allied approach to sanctions enforcement.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Kinetic Focus (0800Z): RF initiates maximum density artillery fire at 110800Z to interdict the Dimitrov egress corridors (West of Grishino).
2. Operational Consolidation: Upon securing the immediate Pokrovsk flank, RF will use the recently recruited, high-attrition forces (criminals) to sustain attritional frontal assaults, aiming to consume UAF PHOENIX reserves rapidly. (Confidence: HIGH)
3. IO Counter-Focus: RF StratCom will pivot to aggressively push the 600 billion RUB damage narrative and amplify friction within the NATO/EU bloc regarding the future of sanctions and RF economic re-entry.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF successfully utilizes the 0800Z artillery saturation combined with EW superiority to completely sever communications and tactical cohesion among the Dimitrov exfiltrating forces and the 132nd DShV holding elements. This failure results in the capture of a senior UAF commander, providing RF IO with a massive domestic and international boost, leading to a localized morale collapse on the Pokrovsk-Stepnohorsk operational interface. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (Refined)

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE FIRE SUPERIORITY & CASPIAN STRIKE EXPLOITATION.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)