Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL OPERATIONAL UPDATE

TIME: 110715Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: SITREP 110645Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The tactical focus remains the Pokrovsk Axis, specifically the emergency exfiltration of UAF elements from the Dimitrov pocket, which must be completed NLT 110800Z (45 minutes from report time).

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): Russian Federation (RF) sources (07:08Z) claim UAF units in Dimitrov are actively resisting exfiltration attempts, suggesting close-quarters fighting and extreme pressure on egress corridors west of Grishino. UAF counter-fire and target destruction claims (07:09Z) indicate the defensive effort is currently holding but is likely at the point of culmination.
• Deep Rear Area (Lviv): Confirmed drone strike on a private residence near Lviv (07:10Z). This strike, deep in the Western rear, highlights continued RF capability to penetrate UAF western AD layers, potentially utilizing long-range fixed-wing platforms or exploiting gaps created by AD reallocation to the East. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• RF Internal Area: Confirmed UAV strikes on targets in Tula Oblast (gas station, educational facility - 06:45Z), Veliky Novgorod (06:57Z), and transport restrictions at Vnukovo Airport, Moscow (07:00Z). This confirms sustained UAF pressure on RF military and civilian infrastructure.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) continues to impede unassisted GPS and precision guidance systems. Fog and low cloud cover in the East may marginally assist UAF tactical withdrawal visibility but simultaneously hamper UAF counter-battery targeting.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF is fully committed to the Dimitrov exfiltration and holding the Stepnohorsk (PHOENIX Plan) perimeter. The operational priority is force preservation under imminent RF artillery saturation. RF forces are postured for a maximum effort kinetic push at 0800Z, synchronized with high-impact Information Operations (IO).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Prevent the controlled withdrawal of the Dimitrov pocket NLT 110800Z, generating mass casualties and equipment losses to achieve operational superiority on the Pokrovsk axis. Simultaneously, escalate IO campaigns targeting UAF legitimacy and Western political cohesion.

CAPABILITIES:

• Artillery Saturation: The anticipated logistical surge from the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base remains the most significant kinetic threat, timed to coincide with the exfiltration deadline (110800Z). (Confidence: HIGH)
• Strategic Deep Strike: Demonstrated capability to strike targets across Russian territory and penetrate UAF deep rear areas (Lviv). The Vnukovo closure confirms successful disruption of key RF civil-military infrastructure. (Confidence: HIGH)
• IO Political Subversion: RF sources immediately amplify anti-UAF political messaging from high-profile Western figures (e.g., Trump comments on peace/corruption/elections - 07:01Z), indicating highly coordinated exploitation of Western political vulnerabilities. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

• The immediate need for tactical supplies remains high for RF forces, evidenced by continued fundraising appeals for the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (07:05Z). This suggests dependence on decentralized support channels persists despite claims of improved central logistics.
• The hypothesized hidden mobilization of inactive reservists (06:50Z) reinforces the analytical judgment that RF intends to sustain long-term, high-attrition offensive operations despite current manpower costs. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 demonstrates high effectiveness in multi-domain integration. They are rapidly linking confirmed UAF deep strikes (Vnukovo/Tula) with domestic damage control and simultaneous kinetic pressure (Pokrovsk/Krasny Liman - 07:02Z). The immediate use of politically sensitive statements (Trump) in their IO architecture highlights a proactive C2 approach in the information domain. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high but centered on emergency maneuvers. Force posture is focused on tactical damage limitation (Dimitrov) and long-term capability sustainment. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade's (Magura) explicit recruitment call for specialized UAV personnel (07:01Z) highlights a critical current operational gap in high-tech warfare capability.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Effective deep strike synchronization, forcing high-level civil disruption (Vnukovo closures, Tula/Novgorod strikes). (Confidence: HIGH)
• Continued combat effectiveness shown by UAF DShV/Operational units in the Pokrovsk direction (07:09Z video confirmation), providing necessary cover for the exfiltration. Setbacks:
• Imminent threat of envelopment and liquidation of the Dimitrov pocket before the 110800Z deadline.
• Confirmed RF penetration of the deep western AD structure (Lviv strike - 07:10Z), potentially threatening key C2 or logistics hubs previously considered secure.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Time: 45 minutes remain until the expected RF artillery surge NLT 110800Z.
2. Personnel: Critical need for specialized UAV operators and maintenance crews.
3. AD: Mobile AD assets require immediate reallocation based on the Lviv deep strike assessment and ongoing protection needs for logistics corridors.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is currently executing a dual-axis strategy:

1. Political Legitimacy Erosion (Internal/External): RF and affiliated channels immediately amplified former US President Trump's statements questioning the lack of Ukrainian elections, alleging high corruption, and claiming widespread popular demand for a peace agreement (07:01Z, 07:05Z). This directly targets US political consensus on aid continuation. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Covert Western Involvement: The death of a "British military man" is being used to claim "massive scale of covert Western participation" (07:11Z), intending to rationalize RF actions and reduce political willingness for open aid packages.
3. Diplomatic Exploitation: RF messaging is leveraging reported EU friction, suggesting Belgium may face isolation if it does not agree to Russian asset seizure terms (07:06Z).

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF StratCom is effectively countering attrition narratives by focusing heavily on national cohesion, memory, and respect for the fallen (multiple official commemorations around 07:00Z). However, the internal controversy regarding the GSh maps (SITREP 110645Z) coupled with high-profile political statements (Trump) risks creating a localized morale crisis if not swiftly managed.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate impact of the Trump comments poses an urgent risk to sustained military aid and diplomatic unity. This narrative will be maximized by RF media in the next 24 hours. The political maneuvering regarding the seizure of frozen RF assets (Belgium/EU) confirms ongoing financial complications that delay and complicate long-term funding streams for Kyiv.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Artillery Decapitation (Pokrovsk): RF will initiate overwhelming artillery fire NLT 110800Z, coupled with continuous ground pressure to liquidate the Dimitrov pocket. This aims to force maximum UAF equipment abandonment and mass capture/casualties. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Political IO Synchronization: RF IO will sustain and amplify the political destabilization narrative (Trump/Corruption) for the next 48 hours, synchronizing the failure of the Dimitrov exfiltration (if successful) with claims of internal UAF political rot and instability. (Confidence: HIGH)
3. Continued Deep Penetration: RF will continue deep strikes utilizing UAS/missiles against high-value targets in the Western oblasts (Lviv, Odesa, Vinnytsia) to further dilute critical UAF AD reserves. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF successfully breaches UAF defenses west of Grishino during the 110800Z artillery surge, resulting in the failure of the Dimitrov exfiltration and the fragmentation of the 132nd DShV holding elements. The subsequent operational collapse allows RF forces to rapidly advance on Pokrovsk, forcing premature activation of reserves designated for the Stepnohorsk (PHOENIX) defensive line, leading to the collapse of two major operational axes simultaneously. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (Refined)

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE FIRE SUPERIORITY FOR EXFILTRATION; STRATCOM COUNTER-PROPAGANDA.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)