Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IMMEDIATE OPERATIONAL UPDATE

TIME: 110345Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: Previous SITREP 110315Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25; New Messages 110319Z - 110340Z

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The multi-axis kinetic operation is reaching culmination across key logistical and command nodes.

• Axis 3 (Bila Tserkva/Kyiv SW): UAV track remains on high-priority trajectory toward the Bila Tserkva logistical hub. Target interception window NLT 110345Z DEC 25 (IMMINENT). This remains the CRITICAL center of gravity. (Unchanged)
• Axis 2 (Kremenchuk): CONFIRMED 100% TARGET DENIAL. Real-time operational reporting confirms the successful final engagement ("minus") of the remaining seven (7) hostile UAVs approaching the target zone (110339Z). The immediate threat to Kremenchuk energy infrastructure is neutralized.
• Axis 4 (Chernihiv/Northern): A new high-priority UAV track confirmed approaching Chernihiv from Northern Chernihiv Oblast (110325Z). This new vector forces immediate AD resource allocation review.
• Strategic Depth (UAF Counter-Kinetic): Confirmation of expanded UAF deep strike capability beyond Moscow, with local reports confirming UAV strikes and subsequent fire in Veliky Novgorod (110324Z-110339Z). This confirms strategic reach and targeting of secondary industrial/military targets in the RF rear.
• Frontline Attrition: Dimitrov encirclement pressure remains acute. Emergency exfiltration must commence.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The G2.3 Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) effects persist, limiting GPS accuracy for precision assets and affecting mobile AD relocation, particularly concerning the newly identified Chernihiv track. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF AD: Following confirmed success at Kremenchuk, mobile SHORAD assets in Poltava/Cherkasy Oblast are now marginally available for reallocation. Priority must remain on Bila Tserkva until successful engagement is confirmed. The Chernihiv track necessitates activation of Northern AD reserves (e.g., assets previously targeting Sumy feints). RF Forces: Confirmed intent to mobilize inactive reserve forces (ISW/D/S Beliefs) confirms commitment to long-term high-attrition conflict.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (OPERATIONAL): RF intent is to achieve synchronized kinetic and cognitive effect:

1. Kinetic: Execute the Bila Tserkva strike to impact UAF strategic logistics/C2. The new Chernihiv track is likely a deliberate feint to draw AD resources away from the primary Kyiv corridor.
2. Cognitive: Immediately capitalize on energy infrastructure damage (real or perceived) to degrade civilian and military morale (Kyiv blackout narrative).

CAPABILITY (SUSTAINMENT): RF sustainment capability is assessed as ROBUST and LONG-TERM. The confirmed delivery of Su-34 airframes and the confirmation (ISW) of plans to mobilize inactive reserves indicate a willingness and capability to sustain high casualty and materiel rates indefinitely. (Confidence: HIGH)

TACTICAL ADAPTATION (IO/PSYOP): RF IO is executing immediate synchronization. Within minutes of missile/UAV engagement, state media (Operatsiya Z) began propagating alarmist, specific claims regarding Kyiv energy outages (17 hours of blackouts), designed to maximize psychological stress and undermine public confidence in UAF AD/Government. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF operational sustainment remains robust. The massive surge at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (SAR Score 24.96) dictates an upcoming saturation artillery phase, likely supporting the Dimitrov pocket liquidation or a major push on Pokrovsk/Siversk.

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 demonstrated high effectiveness by integrating physical strikes (UAVs) with real-time strategic disinformation (Kyiv energy claims, repatriation narratives). This synchronization maximizes strategic shock. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF posture remains high, successfully demonstrating resilience in AD (Kremenchuk 100% BDA) and strategic reach (Moscow/Veliky Novgorod strikes). However, the constant requirement to track multiple UAV axes (Bila Tserkva, Chernihiv) severely strains remaining AD resources.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Tactical AD): Complete neutralization of the Kremenchuk threat wave. Success (Strategic Kinetic): Successful execution and confirmation of strikes deep inside RF territory, expanding targeting to industrial/military sites in Veliky Novgorod. Setback (Operational Constraint): The necessity of managing the Chernihiv threat introduces a new, high-priority commitment in the North, potentially compromising readiness in the East or Center.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

The critical constraint is the immediate shortage of specialized EW and kinetic AD resources to simultaneously manage the Bila Tserkva strike and the newly confirmed Chernihiv track, while maintaining adequate coverage for the Dimitrov Exfiltration corridor.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is currently executing a three-pronged psychological assault:

1. Shock and Fear (Energy): Immediate exploitation of the perceived success of the energy strikes, utilizing highly specific but exaggerated claims ("17 hours of blackouts in Kyiv") to generate immediate internal panic. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Internal Erosion (Logistical/Morale): Continued pushing of the alleged intercepted radio traffic regarding shortages (Kupyansk).
3. Humanitarian/Diplomatic Framing: Using the repatriation narrative (Sumy citizens) to portray the RF as the humane actor and Kyiv as rejecting its own citizens.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is under immediate threat due to the coordinated IO blitz related to the Kyiv energy situation. UAF StratCom must issue a clear, immediate counter-narrative, using confirmed successes (Kremenchuk denial, Deep Strike BDA) to offset the fear generated by the blackout claims.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The long-term threat of RF mobilization of inactive reserves (ISW) must be immediately translated into diplomatic messaging to maintain urgency among allies regarding continued materiel supply, particularly long-range precision fires and AD platforms.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will maximize operational tempo until the Bila Tserkva strike concludes (IMMINENT):

1. Axis 3 (Bila Tserkva Strike): The Bila Tserkva UAV group will strike the designated logistical or C2 asset NLT 110345Z DEC 25.
2. Axis 4 (Chernihiv Pressure): The newly confirmed UAV track toward Chernihiv will continue, primarily serving as a resource magnet to draw mobile AD systems north, degrading the overall AD envelope protecting central Ukraine.
3. Ground Operation & IO Synchronization: RF will maximize KAB saturation (via Su-34 support) on Dimitrov GLOCs throughout the night (NLT 110800Z) to prevent exfiltration, while concurrently escalating the Kyiv blackout IO narrative. (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The Bila Tserkva strike succeeds in destroying a critical C2 node, leading to fragmentation of command authority required to execute the Dimitrov exfiltration efficiently. Concurrently, the Chernihiv track utilizes its distraction effectively, allowing subsequent tactical bomber runs into Central Ukraine due to depleted SHORAD coverage. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: INTERDICT BILA TSERKVA, COMMENCE DIMITROV EXFILTRATION, COUNTER IO BLITZ.

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)