Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL UPDATE: AD ENGAGEMENT & DEEP STRIKE CONFIRMATION

TIME: 110315Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: Previous SITREP 110245Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25; New Messages 110246Z - 110309Z

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP DELTA)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The multi-axis kinetic operation continues with minor attrition gains confirmed by UAF AD assets. RF C2 prioritization remains the Bila Tserkva corridor, synchronized with tactical air support in Donetsk and strategic pressure via deep strikes against UAF C2/logistical nodes.

• Axis 3 (Bila Tserkva/Kyiv SW): UAV track confirmed approaching the Bila Tserkva logistical hub (110220Z). This remains the CRITICAL operational focus due to potential impact on UAF strategic reserve C2. (Unchanged)
• Axis 2 (Kremenchuk): UAF AD engagement is confirmed successful. Remaining hostile UAV wave is reduced to seven (7) confirmed "mopeds" approaching the target zone (110253Z). This represents a successful initial attrition rate of approximately 40% against the 12-UAV surge wave.
• Deep Strike Reciprocity: Confirmation of a significant UAF deep strike capability targeting RF strategic/political nodes. Moscow Mayor confirmed 31 hostile UAVs intercepted over Moscow/Oblast during the night (110308Z). This demonstrates UAF capacity to sustain long-range kinetic pressure despite current defensive constraints.
• Frontline Attrition: Dimitrov encirclement pressure remains acute.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The G2.3 Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) effects persist, limiting GPS accuracy for precision assets and redeploying mobile AD units, particularly along the Bila Tserkva corridor. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF AD: Redeployed mobile assets must maintain maximum focus on the Bila Tserkva corridor. The reduction of the Kremenchuk threat (from 12 to 7 UAVs) offers a marginal resource window, but no resource shift is recommended until Bila Tserkva engagement is confirmed successful. RF AD: Demonstrated high effectiveness in defense of strategic depth, confirming the successful engagement of 31 UAF UAVs over Moscow.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (OPERATIONAL): RF intent is dual-pronged: (1) Maximum physical damage to UAF central logistics (Bila Tserkva, Kremenchuk); (2) Sustained psychological and logistical warfare via Information Operations (IO) targeting UAF cohesion and international diplomatic support.

CAPABILITY (SUSTAINMENT): The report of the 7th batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers delivered to the VKS (110303Z) confirms that RF military-industrial output is successfully sustaining high-tempo kinetic operations, particularly the high consumption rate of KAB guided bombs against UAF fixed defenses (Dimitrov). (Confidence: HIGH)

TACTICAL ADAPTATION (IO/PSYOP): RF propaganda is aggressively pushing the narrative of UAF logistical failure and unit breakdown. The intercepted radio traffic presented by TASS, claiming UAF soldiers threatening commanders over shortages near Kupyansk (110306Z), is a direct, coordinated PsyOp to capitalize on existing supply fears and erode unit cohesion. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF operational sustainment remains robust, evidenced by the confirmed airframe deliveries and the previously identified surge at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (SAR Score 24.96). The ability to support multi-axis UAV strikes and high KAB consumption is not yet degraded.

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, demonstrated by the synchronization of physical strikes (UAVs) with real-time IO/PsyOp targeting (Kupyansk narrative) designed to maximize strategic effect. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness remains maximized. The demonstration of successful deep strike capability (31 UAVs targeting Moscow) is a critical strategic signal of UAF resolve and reach, which should be leveraged diplomatically and operationally.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Tactical AD): Initial interception success against the Kremenchuk wave, reducing the immediate threat by 40%. Success (Strategic Kinetic): Successful execution of a major deep strike mission against Moscow strategic targets. Setback (Cognitive/Morale): Ground forces remain under intense pressure in Dimitrov. The RF IO/PsyOp effort specifically targeting UAF logistical integrity and command accountability (Kupyansk) poses a threat to troop morale and external perception.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

The critical constraint is the immediate shortage of specialized EW and kinetic AD resources to simultaneously manage the high-priority Bila Tserkva threat and the confirmed ground crisis in Dimitrov.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing a highly focused Strategy of Erosion, utilizing two axes:

1. Internal Erosion (Logistical/Morale): Confirmed use of alleged intercepted radio traffic (Kupyansk) to suggest critical UAF supply and medical shortages, eroding confidence in command structures (Supported by D/S Beliefs).
2. External Erosion (Diplomatic): Amplification of diplomatic uncertainty (Trump's "tough talk") combined with the "Korean Model" narrative to undermine international consensus and UAF negotiating position.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale relies entirely on the immediate success of AD operations along the Bila Tserkva and Kremenchuk axes NLT 110345Z. Failure here will be exploited immediately by the RF IO apparatus. UAF C4ISR must be prepared to counter the Kupyansk/logistical failure narrative, which directly impacts front-line soldier confidence.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The diplomatic environment is destabilized by the public airing of transatlantic friction regarding the conflict's settlement path. UAF StratCom must rapidly counter this perception to safeguard continued materiel flow.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will maximize operational tempo until the GMS effects subside (approx. 111000Z):

1. Axis 3 (Bila Tserkva Strike): The Bila Tserkva-bound UAV group will reach target acquisition altitude and strike the designated logistical or C2 asset NLT 110345Z DEC 25.
2. Axis 2 (Kremenchuk Strike): The remaining seven (7) UAVs will attempt saturation of the Kremenchuk energy facility NLT 110335Z DEC 25 (adjusted timeline).
3. Ground Operation & IO Synchronization: RF will maintain maximum KAB saturation (via Su-34 support) on the Dimitrov GLOCs NLT 110800Z to prevent exfiltration, while simultaneously flooding the cognitive domain with the morale/supply shortage narrative to exacerbate UAF internal pressure. (Confidence: HIGH - based on confirmed trajectories, production, and synchronized PsyOp activity.)

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

Unchanged. Critical C2 node destruction near Bila Tserkva coincides with the isolation and liquidation of the Dimitrov garrison, triggering a localized C2 breakdown along the entire Donetsk-Kyiv strategic axis. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: CONCENTRATE AD FORCE & EXECUTE EXFILTRATION

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)