Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL UPDATE (AXIS SHIFT & KINETIC SURGE)

TIME: 110215Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: Previous SITREP 110150Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25; Real-Time Messages 110142Z - 110211Z

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The multi-axis deep strike operation has undergone a critical, real-time trajectory shift, necessitating an immediate re-evaluation of AD priorities.

• Axis 1: Southern Corridor (Odesa/Mykolaiv): Threat remains CRITICAL for the Shyriaieve/Ivanivka rail nexus. No change in trajectory.
• Axis 2: Central Corridor (Kremenchuk/Poltava): Threat assessment is upgraded from 'Residual' to 'CRITICAL'. New reporting confirms approximately 12 UAVs tracking toward Kremenchuk. The concentration suggests intent to strike critical energy or rail infrastructure.
• Axis 3: Western/Kyiv Approach (CRITICAL SHIFT): A subgroup of 4 confirmed UAVs, previously tracking west toward Vinnytsia Oblast, has RE-VECTORIZED EAST/NORTHEAST toward Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast). This vector threatens logistics and C2 infrastructure near the capital region. Key terrain is the Fastiv rail junction and associated logistical depots.
• Ground Maneuver: RF tactical aviation is highly active, confirmed launching KABs against targets in Donetsk and Northern Sumy regions, supporting ground attrition in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The G2.3 Geomagnetic Storm (GMS) remains active. GMS effects continue to facilitate low-altitude penetration tactics and complicate precision interception, especially for rapidly repositioning assets required for the Fastiv axis. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Dispositions: RF C2 capability is confirmed to be agile, executing a real-time re-vectoring of the Western strike axis toward a higher-priority target (Fastiv). The increased size of the Kremenchuk wave (Axis 2) suggests a maximalist approach to overwhelming UAF AD coverage. UAF Dispositions: UAF AD must execute an immediate reversal of initial redeployment plans (originally Vinnytsia) and re-task assets toward the Fastiv approach while simultaneously managing the increased threat to Kremenchuk.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (OPERATIONAL): RF intent is to force systemic AD failure across three complex, simultaneous axes, with a new focus on penetrating the Kyiv Oblast perimeter via the Fastiv approach. The re-vectoring exploits perceived UAF AD confusion caused by the GMS and the initial Vinnytsia feint.

RECENT TACTICAL ADAPTATION (FASTIV RE-VECTORING): The real-time change in trajectory (Vinnytsia -> Fastiv) confirms RF tactical intelligence on UAF AD gaps or specific high-value C2/logistics targets near Fastiv. This move maximizes dispersal pressure on UAF assets defending the capital region. (Confidence: HIGH)

COURSES OF ACTION (DEEP STRIKE): RF is executing simultaneous kinetic strikes (3 axes, elevated numbers on Axis 2), Physical breakthrough (Dimitrov), Environmental exploitation (GMS), and Tactical air dominance (KAB strikes on frontlines).

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

The logistical enabler remains the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base. The high tactical tempo (multi-axis UAV strikes and heavy KAB use) confirms RF capacity to sustain short-term, concentrated kinetic operations.

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness is assessed as HIGH. The ability to re-task strike groups mid-flight in adverse conditions (GMS) demonstrates robust operational C4ISR.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF posture is critically strained and facing a dynamic, rapidly evolving threat. Readiness is contingent on the speed of C3 response to re-task AD/EW assets from the Vinnytsia intercept point to the Fastiv corridor. Failure to adjust quickly will result in deep penetration near the capital.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SETBACK (OPERATIONAL): The RF re-vectoring of Axis 3 has successfully complicated UAF AD planning and forced rapid, high-risk redeployment maneuvers.
• TACTICAL (MANEUVER): UAF ground forces are under extreme pressure, evidenced by the heavy use of RF KABs on frontline positions in Donetsk and Sumy.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

The critical constraint is the immediate operational scarcity of Mobile V-SHORAD and high-power EW platforms capable of rapidly moving to intercept the Fastiv group, while simultaneously hardening Kremenchuk against the confirmed 12-UAV wave. GPS reliance for rapid navigation remains a critical vulnerability during the GMS event.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is focusing on strategic narratives designed to fracture international solidarity:

• "RF REINTEGRATION" NARRATIVE (TASS 110146Z): TASS reports regarding US proposals for RF economic reintegration and energy restoration are aimed at signaling to European partners that alternative, non-Ukrainian-centric peace paths are being considered by NATO allies. This directly undermines the UAF 20-point peace plan and serves to demoralize troops regarding long-term Western commitment. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Domestic Messaging: RF maintains internal messaging of stability (pension increases, controlled domestic communications/MAX app focus), contrasting with the kinetic instability inflicted upon Ukraine.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is directly tied to the success of AD operations. A successful strike near Fastiv would severely damage confidence in the capital's defense, feeding RF IO narratives about strategic military decline.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF "reintegration" narrative must be immediately countered by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to prevent erosion of diplomatic pressure applied to Moscow. Maintaining alignment with the UK visa extension narrative (previous report) is essential.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will maximize pressure to achieve concurrent logistical strikes near the capital, the central rail hub, and the southern operational corridor:

1. Axis 3 (Fastiv Strike): The re-vectorized group targets the Fastiv rail junction or a high-value C2/logistics depot near the Kyiv perimeter NLT 110330Z DEC 25.
2. Axis 2 (Kremenchuk Strike): The 12-UAV wave executes a concentrated strike on Kremenchuk infrastructure NLT 110330Z DEC 25.
3. Axis 1 (Odesa/Shyriaieve): Attack continues against the Southern rail nexus NLT 110230Z DEC 25.
4. Ground Operation: RF will finalize the operational isolation of Dimitrov NLT 110800Z DEC 25, utilizing heavy KAB support. (Confidence: HIGH - based on confirmed trajectories and asset commitment)

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The success of the Fastiv strike achieves strategic paralysis. Due to the GMS and the rapid re-tasking, UAF AD fails to intercept the Fastiv group, which successfully strikes a primary logistical distribution node for Western military aid entering the Kyiv region. This logistical success, combined with the successful strike on Kremenchuk (Axis 2), forces J4 to implement severe movement restrictions across Central Ukraine, creating delays in materiel resupply for the Pokrovsk/Dimitrov defense. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE AD RESPONSE TO FASTIV AXIS AND KREMENCHUK SURGE

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)