Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - OPERATIONAL UPDATE

TIME: 102200Z DEC 25

REFERENCE: Previous ISR 102130Z DEC 25; Daily Intelligence Summary 101501Z DEC 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1 Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational crisis remains centered on the Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast), driven by the successful RF penetration into Svetloe and Grishino, confirming the operational isolation of UAF elements in Dimitrov. RF forces are simultaneously leveraging secondary axes (Siversk) to fix UAF reserves.

• Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk): The defense of the Ivanivka-Myrnohrad secondary line is now under extreme pressure. UAF elements (132nd DShV) are engaged in holding actions to facilitate potential Dimitrov exfiltration.
• Siversk Axis: RF Information Operations (IO) are claiming the "liberation" of Siversk, signaling a psychological prelude to an intensified kinetic push toward Sloviansk. This axis remains a major RF reserve fixing mechanism. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims are premature but kinetic pressure is high).
• Deep Battle Area: UAF deep strike tempo is sustained, evidenced by the confirmed RF shootdown of a UAV targeting Moscow (TASS 2113Z) and a cleared missile threat alert in Bryansk Oblast. The RF IADS strain is persistent.
• Southern Axis (New Threat Vector): UAF Air Force confirms new UAV groups moving from Kherson toward the Mykolaiv region (2115Z), expanding the confirmed RF deep interdiction threat beyond Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih.

1.2 Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Freezing conditions and low visibility continue to favor rapid RF armor movement supported by high-altitude KAB deployment. Low visibility aids UAF deep strike penetration into RF territory.

1.3 Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Dispositions: RF ground forces are consolidating gains around Dimitrov. Air assets are increasingly employed for deep interdiction (KABs) and persistent UAV reconnaissance/attack in Southern Ukraine (Mykolaiv). The high SAR score (260th GRAU) confirms RF intent to sustain the high tempo via artillery saturation.

UAF Dispositions: UAF forces are defensively engaged on the primary and secondary lines (14th Brigade successfully defended against a major assault near Kupiansk). The critical operational maneuver is the execution of Contingency Plan PHOENIX (Stepnohorsk retrograde) and the preparation of emergency exfiltration protocols for Dimitrov.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1 Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (OPERATIONAL): RF intent is to complete the tactical envelopment and destruction/liquidation of the Dimitrov pocket, securing the Pokrovsk approach NLT 111200Z DEC 25. RF will leverage multi-domain superiority by synchronizing political IO with operational maneuver. (Confidence: HIGH)

CAPABILITIES:

• Coordinated IO-Maneuver: RF is effectively synchronizing tactical claims (Siversk 'liberation') with strategic political messaging (Trump statements, "82% want peace") to maximize cognitive effect on UAF political support and morale. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Expanded Deep Strike Reach: RF has demonstrated the capability to mass UAV groups targeting the logistics backbone in Southern Ukraine, specifically extending the threat vector to Mykolaiv, aiming to disrupt resupply routes supporting the Stepnohorsk axis. (Confidence: HIGH)

Recent Tactical Changes: RF IO has introduced a specific religious/historical narrative surrounding the claimed Siversk advance (Svyatogorsk Lavra), designed to galvanize domestic support and pre-justify potential collateral damage.

2.2 Logistics and Sustainment Status

The logistical tempo for RF forces remains exceptionally high, as confirmed by the SAR spike at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base. This indicates a massive input of materiel designed to sustain the current artillery surge and replenish reserves required for the Pokrovsk breakthrough exploitation.

2.3 Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective in executing synchronized multi-domain operations. UAF C2 continues to be tested by deep interdiction strikes (Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk claims) and must rapidly adapt to the new Mykolaiv UAV threat axis.

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1 Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force posture is engaged in critical holding actions (Kupiansk, Ivanivka) and complex retrograde maneuvers (PHOENIX). Readiness levels are adequate for current holding operations, but reserves are being stressed by the threat of simultaneous breakthroughs on the Pokrovsk and Stepnohorsk axes.

3.2 Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS (TACTICAL): Successful defense by the 14th Brigade against a major RF assault near Kupiansk, maintaining stability on the northern secondary front.

• SUCCESS (STRATEGIC/GOVERNANCE): Announcement of defense sector audits (starting Dec 2025, results Jan 2026) by PM Sviridenko, signaling transparency and resilience to Western partners amid RF attempts to discredit UAF governance.

• SUCCESS (STRATCOM): Impactful testimonial by a young survivor at the European Parliament, generating immediate emotional support and countering the RF narrative of apathy/war fatigue.

• SETBACK (TACTICAL/OPERATIONAL): Confirmed threat of operational isolation for forces in Dimitrov following the loss of Svetloe/Grishino, demanding immediate high-risk exfiltration.

3.3 Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: The confirmed UAV groups targeting Mykolaiv reinforce the immediate need for SHORAD and EW assets to protect critical Southern logistics infrastructure (Shyriaieve/Ivanivka rail corridors).

CONSTRAINT: The commitment of the 132nd DShV to holding actions around Dimitrov reduces their availability as a mobile reserve for other priority areas (e.g., Stepnohorsk flank defense).

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1 Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is operating at a strategic saturation level, leveraging three simultaneous attack vectors:

1. Political Delegation: Amplifying Donald Trump's comments to question the realism of UAF leadership and imply imminent withdrawal of US support.
2. Domestic Division Fabrication: The specific claim that "82% of Ukrainians demand peace" (2114Z) is a calculated fabrication designed to undermine the National Command Authority (NCA) legitimacy and sow doubt among UAF personnel.
3. Religious Justification: Framing tactical gains (Siversk) within a narrative of "liberating" Russian Orthodox holy sites (Svyatogorsk Lavra) to dehumanize UAF defenders and justify kinetic actions against cultural heritage.

4.2 Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is being actively targeted by the synchronized political-military campaign. The successful deployment of emotional counter-narratives (Euro Parliament speech) and signals of governmental continuity (defense audits) are essential mitigating factors against the corrosive effect of the "Korean Model" and "Peace Demand" narratives.

4.3 International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The diplomatic focus is shifting to crisis management regarding the political IO. The NCA must preemptively and forcefully address the fabricated domestic peace demands before the scheduled coalition meetings to safeguard materiel commitments (e.g., Polish MiG-29s).

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1 Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will successfully liquidate the UAF pocket in Dimitrov NLT 111200Z DEC 25, securing the southern flank for the final main effort push toward Pokrovsk. Simultaneously, RF deep strike operations will transition to a high-volume interdiction focus on the Mykolaiv-Odesa logistics axis. (Confidence: HIGH)

1. Dimitrov Consolidation: RF units will commit reserves to hold Svetloe/Grishino, eliminating the Dimitrov pocket via attrition or forced surrender.
2. Logistics Interdiction: UAV swarms and possible KABs will be utilized to sever the critical Shyriaieve/Ivanivka rail corridor, capitalizing on the newly identified Mykolaiv threat vector.
3. Siversk Fixing: RF will maintain high-tempo attritional assaults on the Siversk axis to fix UAF 14th Brigade and other reserves, preventing their redeployment to Pokrovsk.

5.2 Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF forces achieve a rapid collapse of the Dimitrov pocket without significant UAF exfiltration, allowing the immediate redeployment of RF exploitation reserves (identified in Gap CR) to bypass the hardened Ivanivka line. This kinetic success coincides with a global political announcement (driven by RF IO success) demanding a permanent cease-fire based on current occupation lines, rendering future Western aid shipments politically impossible. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3 Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMAND PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE DIMITROV EXFILTRATION AND SOUTHERN AD REDEPLOYMENT

---

INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)