Situation Report

OPERATIONAL SITUATION REPORT (OSITREP) - CRITICAL UPDATE

TIME: 101030Z DEC 2025 AOR: Pokrovsk Operational Axis (Donetsk Oblast) & Strategic Information Environment ANALYST JUDGMENT: The RF has successfully converted the tactical breach in the Pokrovsk Axis (Myrnohrad Sector) into an operational exploitation, accelerating the threat of isolation for Pokrovsk city. Simultaneously, a significant diplomatic leak (WP Peace Plan) has introduced acute strategic uncertainty, demanding immediate strategic communication counter-measures.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF operational drive toward Pokrovsk is concentrating efforts against the immediate logistics nodes southwest and west of the city center.

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): RF MoD claims successful "cleaning up" of Svetloe and Grishino (09:43Z), supported by claims of destroying a surrounded UAF tank and communication equipment in Dimitrov (10:02Z). These settlements lie directly on the operational axis leading toward Pokrovsk, confirming that the RF breakthrough reported near Myrnohrad (previous OSITREP) has expanded and is successfully targeting vulnerable forward-deployed UAF elements.
• Status of Dimitrov: HIGH probability of UAF forces being encircled, cut off, or forced into retreat in the Dimitrov area, validating the prior recommendation for controlled withdrawal from the Myrnohrad sector.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change from previous reporting. Low visibility and persistent winter conditions continue to complicate UAF ISR/C2 and favor RF mechanized penetration. Flooding risk in Kharkiv (Pechenihy Dam) remains a strategic constraint on reserve deployment planning.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF: Committed to rapid consolidation in the newly claimed areas (Svetloe, Grishino, Dimitrov). RF forces are utilizing tactical momentum and deep fires to eliminate pockets of resistance and target isolated UAF units.
• UAF (Blue Force): Forces are engaged in high-stress breakout maneuvers or active counter-infiltration operations. The claimed encirclement in Dimitrov suggests C2 fragmentation and a high risk of equipment loss unless immediate exfiltration is achieved. UAF deep strike operations into RF territory remain active (RF governor UAV alert canceled, 09:48Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF is exhibiting highly synchronized kinetic and information operations. The Dimitrov claim, following the Myrnohrad crisis, demonstrates RF's ability to maintain high tempo and immediately broadcast tactical successes to influence the international discourse regarding peace negotiations (the WP plan).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are supporting sustained operational tempo in Donetsk. The continued UAF deep strikes (cancelled UAV alert) indicate UAF is forcing RF to expend resources on air defense and facility protection, but this does not appear to have slowed the offensive yet.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, with strategic messaging (TASS/MoD claims) rapidly supporting tactical breakthroughs.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is critical at the Pokrovsk front due to confirmed RF penetration points. UAF readiness is challenged by high attrition and localized C2 breakdown (Dimitrov encirclement). UAF SOF units maintain high operational effectiveness (Destroyed RF group in Donetsk, 09:46Z).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setbacks (CRITICAL): Confirmed or highly probable encirclement/loss of UAF elements in Dimitrov and adjacent settlements.
• Successes: Demonstrated UAF capacity for kinetic action deep within RF territory (UAV alert confirmation). Successful SOF interdiction. Active engagement by the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) with the "Week of Integrity" campaign (09:43Z), providing a vital domestic counter-narrative to previous corruption scandals.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Economic stress is indicated by the rising USD/EUR exchange rate (09:46Z), signaling financial market uncertainty potentially linked to operational setbacks and strategic peace rumors. This necessitates strong economic stabilization messaging paired with military success narratives.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The strategic information environment is dominated by the leaked details of the purported US-backed peace plan, suggesting a "Korean Scenario" division of Ukraine (WP reporting, 09:47Z, 09:53Z).

• RF Strategy (WP Leak): RF channels (TASS, Operation Z) immediately amplify the WP leak, focusing on the concepts of: 1) fixed borders/territorial concession (Korean model), 2) massive reconstruction funds ($100B from frozen assets), and 3) the imposed need for anti-corruption oversight (EU entry conditions). The objective is to normalize the concept of a peace deal based on current front lines and strategically reduce Ukrainian public willingness to fight for lost territory.
• RF Strategy (Normalization): RF uses humanitarian diplomacy (family reunification, 10:00Z) and internal cultural campaigns (Olympic mascot, Moscow theater) to project an image of stability and normalcy, contrasting with the alleged UAF chaos.
• UAF Counter-Narrative: UAF authorities are actively pushing two counter-narratives: military resilience (SOF actions) and institutional integrity (NACP anti-corruption week).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is under high duress from the combination of kinetic losses (Pokrovsk axis deterioration) and strategic uncertainty (WP peace plan leak). The prompt activation of the NACP campaign is a critical measure to stabilize internal confidence by visibly addressing the prior corruption crisis.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The WP peace plan leak, regardless of its authenticity, creates significant diplomatic friction and political risk. It tests Western commitment by floating concepts like a fixed separation line and external oversight, potentially undermining the 'victory' narrative required to sustain long-term aid.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF will utilize confirmed tactical momentum to fully isolate Pokrovsk city while deploying the WP leak as a decisive political warfare tool to secure strategic advantage.

1. Pokrovsk Operational Encirclement: RF forces will complete the operational isolation of Pokrovsk by seizing key high ground or infrastructure south of the city, forcing a full UAF withdrawal from the UBA NLT 111200Z DEC 25. RF will then leverage this victory in conjunction with the WP leak. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Strategic Peace Push: RF state media and aligned international actors will increase pressure for immediate negotiations based on the 'Korean Scenario' model, likely demanding an unconditional ceasefire linked to humanitarian aid corridors, designed to freeze the conflict on favorable terms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Targeted CNI Strikes: RF will maintain pressure on high-value military industrial targets (MI) and CNI, potentially targeting infrastructure necessary for troop deployment or power generation in support of the Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF successfully breaches the secondary defensive line west of Pokrovsk, leading to the collapse of the entire Donetsk defense in the short term, compounded by decisive Western policy shift favoring the 'Korean Scenario' peace framework.

1. Donbas Operational Collapse: RF exploits the current UAF disorganization near Dimitrov/Svetloe to push armored columns rapidly west toward key road junctions, threatening the secondary defensive lines and potentially opening a path to Kramatorsk/Sloviansk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
2. Western Diplomatic Shift: The US/EU confirm the core elements of the WP peace plan (fixed separation line, denial of full NATO Article 5 guarantee), leading to the immediate withdrawal of some critical long-range strike assets or key financial support, eroding UAF defense capabilities overnight. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS