Situation Report

SENIOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL UPDATE: C2 STRESS RELEASE & KINETIC CONVERGENCE

TIME: 100900Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: POST-STRIKE PHASE: URGENCY OF PHOENIX EXECUTION UNDER EASTERN KINETIC PRESSURE

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment has transitioned from a C2 saturation phase to an intensified kinetic maneuver phase following the cessation of strategic air threats.

1. SOUTHERN OPERATIONAL ZONE (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk): The critical axis remains the Stepnohorsk defense. All major air raid alerts (Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia) were lifted NLT 100416Z DEC, concluding the RF C2 fixation operation. The focus is now entirely on the immediate tactical results of the 100600Z DEC Long-Range Strike (LRS) on Synelnykivskyi and the execution of Contingency Plan PHOENIX.
2. EASTERN OPERATIONAL ZONE (Donetsk): Confirmed escalation of kinetic activity. The UAF Air Force reported multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting the Donetsk sector NLT 100440Z DEC. RF forces (Marochko/TASS reporting) claim establishment on the outskirts of Drobysheve, indicating sustained pressure north of the Slovyansk/Bakhmut line concurrent with the primary Stepnohorsk effort.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The systemic threat of flooding due to the Pechenihy Dam strike (per 07 DEC report) continues to fix UAF reserves and restrict optimal maneuver in the Kharkiv sector.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF C2 capacity, previously strained by the synchronized kinetic attacks, has recovered bandwidth following the stand-down of the ballistic missile alert. Command emphasis must immediately revert to the Priority 1 BDA collection in Synelnykivskyi and disciplined operational maneuver in the Stepnohorsk Rayon. UAF energy crews successfully re-electrified over 5,000 households in Zaporizhzhia following the recent attack, demonstrating high logistical resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Fact).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is now shifting from Operational Paralysis via C2 Saturation back to Decisive Action via Kinetic Exploitation.

• Exploitation (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Judgment): RF forces, specifically the 37th GMRB, will now leverage the time lost during the UAF C2 distraction window (100400Z - 100700Z DEC) to maximize the impact of the LRS on Synelnykivskyi and launch the decisive assault on Stepnohorsk NLT 100800Z DEC (per previous SITREP MLCOA).
• Sustained Eastern Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Fact/Judgment): RF utilizes heavy KAB ordnance and localized maneuver (Drobysheve) to pin UAF assets in the Donetsk region, preventing reinforcement or strategic maneuver in the Southern Operational Zone.
• Deep Strike Resilience (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Fact): RF Ministry of Defence and milbloggers report intercepting 20 UAF UAVs, with 16 specifically over Bryansk Oblast (NLT 100429Z DEC). This suggests adequate RF air defense coverage, though it confirms continued UAF deep strike capability targeting border regions.
• Long-Term Materiel Acquisition (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Fact/Judgment): Reports of RF-India defense industry negotiations indicate RF efforts to secure long-term geopolitical and technological partnerships to sustain materiel requirements, potentially bypassing future sanctions effects.

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain adequate to support sustained, multi-axis kinetic pressure. The reported deep diplomatic/defense negotiations with India suggest strategic planning for long-term sustainment is active and robust.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 demonstrated highly effective, time-sensitive synchronization by coordinating the Kyiv strategic strike with the Southern operational action. Their use of the IO domain (Myrotvorets narrative, domestic asset seizure framing) continues to show integrated hybrid capability.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are at a critical juncture. The stand-down of air alerts allows for necessary reallocation of resources and C2 focus. Readiness is high, but the timely execution of the defensive maneuver (PHOENIX) in the South is now the primary metric of readiness.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Logistical Resilience): Rapid restoration of power to thousands of consumers in Zaporizhzhia (NLT 100430Z DEC) demonstrates effective CNI protection and repair resilience post-attack.
• Success (Deep Strike Capability): UAF continues to execute deep strikes into Russian territory, evidenced by RF reports of 20 UAV intercepts (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The primary constraint has shifted from C2 processing capacity to Timeline Execution. Failure to execute PHOENIX on schedule (NLT 100800Z DEC) due to delayed BDA (Priority 1 CR) will expose critical UAF formations to encirclement.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Warfare (IW) remains focused on three primary vectors:

1. Demonization and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Fact): TASS reports that Ukrainian "extremist sites" (Myrotvorets) have targeted Russian children, a highly emotive narrative designed to galvanize domestic support and justify military operations.
2. Virtue Signaling (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Fact): Continued promotion of perceived RF humanitarian action (military prosecutor seeking release of sick serviceman) intended to counter war crime narratives.
3. Domestic Economic Framing (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Fact): State messaging (Moskalkova) framing the seizure of RF assets abroad as a violation of fundamental rights, designed to mitigate the domestic impact of Western sanctions.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia should see a temporary uplift following the stand-down of air alerts and the successful power restoration. However, the persistent RF narrative of inevitable peace/Western abandonment (per previous SITREP) combined with high-impact emotional IO (Myrotvorets claim) poses a sustained risk to national cohesion and confidence in UAF integrity.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The reported negotiations between Indian defense manufacturers and Moscow (NLT 100416Z DEC) require diplomatic attention. If India agrees to significant military-technical cooperation, it could complicate sanctions enforcement and provide RF with a stable source of materiel or maintenance support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 85%): Stepnohorsk Offensive & Eastern Pinning Effort. RF forces, specifically the 37th GMRB, initiate the full-scale assault on Stepnohorsk immediately following the conclusion of the air threat window. RF uses KAB strikes and artillery concentration to prevent rapid UAF redeployment. The 37th GMRB achieves tactical penetration and disrupts the execution of Contingency Plan PHOENIX by 101000Z DEC, capitalizing on the delayed BDA and C2 friction.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL CONFIDENCE - Probability 65%): Coordinated Tactical Collapse. The 37th GMRB successfully exploits gaps caused by the LRS in the Synelnykivskyi Rayon, resulting in a disorganized and premature UAF withdrawal from Stepnohorsk. Simultaneously, the RF advance toward Drobysheve gains momentum, forcing UAF to divert limited artillery reserves from the Zaporizhzhia sector to stabilize the Eastern Front. RF achieves a shallow operational exploitation in the South NLT 101200Z DEC.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (Updated Focus)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The immediate priority shifts from tracking ballistic trajectories to assessing the operational consequences of the LRS and tracking ground maneuver.

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is to prevent RF kinetic exploitation in the South by strictly adhering to the timeline for PHOENIX execution and rapidly countering high-impact IO.

1. KINETIC OPERATIONS & C2 MANAGEMENT (J3)

• Action A (BDA Compliance - IMMEDIATE): J3 must enforce strict adherence to the BDA collection timeline (Priority 1 CR), ensuring the necessary data for PHOENIX adjustments are available NLT 100930Z DEC. Do not proceed with PHOENIX full execution without BDA results unless enemy contact dictates immediate withdrawal.
• Action B (Stepnohorsk Execution - CRITICAL): Direct all Stepnohorsk unit commanders to execute Contingency Plan PHOENIX on schedule (NLT 101000Z DEC). Use all available means to confirm communication of the order, assuming intermittent radio failure due to potential follow-on jamming.
• Action C (Eastern Stabilization - URGENT): Allocate fire support assets to the Drobysheve sector to disrupt the RF advance (Priority 2 CR). Prioritize counter-battery fire against confirmed KAB launch platforms identified in the Donetsk region.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION & COUNTER-IW (P7/J2)

• Action A (Integrated Counter-Narrative - URGENT): P7 must launch coordinated counter-narratives NLT 101030Z DEC:
  • Emotional Refutation: NCA/MFA must immediately and forcefully refute the RF Myrotvorets claim, framing it as blatant psychological terrorism aimed at demoralizing UAF soldiers and international allies.
  • Operational Refutation: Simultaneously publish the formal refutation of the Zaporizhzhia theft claim (Priority 3 CR).
• Action B (Geopolitical Mitigation - DIPLOMATIC): J2/MFA should issue advisories to key Western partners regarding the RF-India defense industry negotiations, requesting immediate diplomatic action to monitor and potentially sanction any new military-technical cooperation agreements.

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