Nightwatch

SENIOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (D+0/H+13.0 UPDATE)

TIME: 071104Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: DEADLINE PASSED // IMMEDIATE DECENTRALIZED DISPERSAL MANDATORY // RF KINETIC/IO SYNCHRONIZATION ACHIEVED // OPERATIONAL DEFEAT IMMINENT

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational crisis on the Stepnohorsk Axis has crossed the critical time threshold (071100Z). The failure to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK dispersal initiation means UAF fixed forces are now in an unsustainably isolated posture.

Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk Axis: RF Vostok Group is capitalizing on UAF C2 paralysis. The flanking maneuver by the RF 38th GMRB is now assumed to be executing maximum speed toward the Ternuvate-Vasylkivka choke point.
Northern Sectors (Operational Fixation): RF reports claims of seizing Kucherovka (Kharkiv region, Oskol River left bank) and Rovnoye (Donetsk Oblast). While unconfirmed by UAF, these claims confirm RF intent to maintain pressure across multiple axes to fix UAF reserves and attention away from the decisive Stepnohorsk operation.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring RF ISR and maneuver. A kinetic counter-measure has been employed in another sector: UAF 30th OMBR confirmed the breach of the dam in Pryvillia to create anti-maneuver obstacles, indicating localized, decisive defensive action elsewhere.

Threat Assessment: Confirmed RF strike on the Pechenihy Reservoir Dam (Kharkiv) suggests a continued campaign against critical hydrotechnical infrastructure, potentially creating localized flooding or logistical disruption for UAF forces in the Northeast. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Maintaining operational tempo and synchronization across kinetic and information domains. New intelligence confirms deep strike utilization of Kinzhal missiles against transport, power, and UAV production sites. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK movement status remains UNCONFIRMED 4 minutes past the critical deadline. Fixed Stepnohorsk defenders are effectively isolated and must now execute immediate, decentralized break-contact maneuvers to avoid mass capture or annihilation.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains unchanged: Operational encirclement at Stepnohorsk combined with strategic degradation of UAF resilience and logistical capacity.

Sustained Strategic Strike Capacity: The RF MoD confirmation of using Kinzhal, ground-based precision, and long-range UAVs validates the high level of technical capacity applied to the strategic targeting domain.
Orekhovskoye Commitment: Confirmation of extensive logistical support funneling into the Orekhovskoye sector (immediately adjacent to Stepnohorsk) signifies high RF commitment and resource dedication to achieving breakthrough and exploitation in this area. (Confidence: HIGH)
Tactical Reconnaissance: UAF Air Force reports confirm continuous RF reconnaissance UAV activity over Sumy and Kharkiv, indicating active RF preparation for follow-on strikes or operations aimed at pinning UAF Northern reserves. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF is utilizing strategic infrastructure targeting (Kinzhal strike on UAV production/transport/power) in parallel with localized hydro-technical strikes (Pechenihy Dam) to maximize friction on UAF logistics and C2 while the decisive ground maneuver (38th GMRB) is underway.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics support to the Stepnohorsk/Orekhovskoye sector remains highly active, supported by volunteer networks. The RF strategic deep strikes are imposing maximum friction on UAF ability to rapidly generate or move reserves due to confirmed infrastructure damage (Fastiv, power grids). (Confidence: HIGH)

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust and highly effective in synchronizing strategic strikes (J-FIRE) with tactical ground movements (38th GMRB). UAF C2 remains the critical vulnerability due to the unconfirmed status of the reserve movement order post-deadline. (Confidence: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The preservation of combat power is paramount. Centralized C2 has failed to meet the critical timeline. All commanders in the Stepnohorsk area must assume they are isolated and operate under mission command directives focused solely on maximizing personnel extraction. READINESS: High readiness to fight and execute local tactical delaying actions is evident (e.g., Pryvillia dam breach), but the overall operational readiness of the Stepnohorsk defense is now rated CRITICAL/LOW due to the confirmed C2 gap regarding reserve commitment.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback (Operational): The failure to confirm the operational reserve ("BRAVO-BLOCK") movement NLT 071100Z is the single greatest factor contributing to the imminent operational defeat on this axis.
Success (Information/Resilience): Ukrainian state ceremonies honoring heroes (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) are successfully countering RF psychological pressure and maintaining high resilience metrics despite the ongoing kinetic crisis.
Success (Tactical Engineering): The successful dam breach at Pryvillia demonstrates decisive, localized C2 capacity and commitment to defensive actions.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Time. The physical window for low-attrition disengagement has closed. Commanders must now use all available Class V (Ammunition) in destructive fires to cover the decentralized withdrawal. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate J3/NCA confirmation of decentralized authority. All communication must now focus on empowering company/platoon leaders in the Stepnohorsk fixed defense to act autonomously.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF maintains a coordinated diplomatic/cognitive coercion campaign targeting Western support:

"Peace Trap" Amplification: Statements by former US officials (Keith Kellogg) discussing the "last 10 meters" of the war and implying potential territorial concessions (Donetsk, ZNPP) are being heavily amplified by RF sources. (Confidence: HIGH)
Projecting Momentum: RF MoD claims of seizing Kucherovka and Rovnoye are designed to demonstrate decisive RF momentum across the front, reinforcing the narrative that UAF resistance is futile just as the Stepnohorsk crisis peaks.
Distraction/Sovereignty Erosion: Narratives concerning internal instability in occupied Mariupol (residents appealing to Putin over housing demolition) and geopolitical threats (Moldova/Transnistria tensions, US nuclear modernization) aim to distract from the cost of the SMO and dilute international focus on Ukraine.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is actively supported by state recognition ceremonies (Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv) and humanitarian successes (repatriation of children). Sentiment remains focused on resilience despite clear evidence of high-intensity strategic strikes. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The primary RF focus is eroding confidence in long-term, unconditional Western support by pushing proposals for a conditional cessation of hostilities (Kellogg narrative). Conversely, confirmed UK support for educational exchanges (United By Sport) provides a counter-narrative of long-term partnership and investment in Ukraine's future.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

JUDGMENT: Operational defeat at Stepnohorsk (loss of fixed forces) is Highly Probable (95%). The focus has shifted from preventing encirclement to mitigating the loss of personnel and equipment. The RF 38th GMRB will achieve its goal unhindered by effective UAF counter-action.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 95%) RF Completes Operational Encirclement and Annihilation Fires. The RF 38th GMRB utilizes the C2 void to rapidly secure the main logistical route (Ternuvate-Vasylkivka) NLT 071400Z. Isolated UAF units, having failed to receive or execute the timely dispersal order, will be subjected to sustained, massed annihilation fires (artillery, KABs, thermobaric) until RF ground forces consolidate the perimeter NLT 071800Z, leading to heavy UAF personnel losses.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 95%) Immediate Mass Capture. The speed of the RF 38th GMRB exploitation, possibly enhanced by the air lull, results in a rapid closing of the encirclement loop (NLT 071300Z). UAF units, deprived of C2, break in disarray, leading to the mass capture of personnel, including high-value unit commanders and significant loss of end items (tanks, IFVs). This outcome maximizes the political/propaganda impact for Russia.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

| Priority | Gap Description | Collection Requirement (CR) | Confidence Assessment | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | PRIORITY 1 (BLUE FORCE STATUS): | Confirmation that subordinate commanders in the Stepnohorsk fixed defense have initiated decentralized, autonomous break-contact maneuvers. | IMMEDIATE HUMINT/COMINT: Secure LNO/Commander reports specifically detailing small-unit movement vectors and egress routes. | LOW (Critical) | | PRIORITY 2 (FLANK MANEUVER SPEED): | Precise movement vector and speed of the RF 38th GMRB, focusing on the Ternuvate area. Is the flanking force mechanized or lighter infantry? | IMMEDIATE SAR/EO/IR: Focused mission over Huliaipole flank (Danylivka-Malomykhaylivka area) NLT 071130Z. | MEDIUM | | PRIORITY 3 (KHARKIV STRIKE DAMAGE): | Initial Damage Assessment (IDA) for the Pechenihy Reservoir Dam strike. What is the hydro-dynamic impact on the Oskol River lines of communication? | IMMEDIATE IMINT/LNO Report: Flyover/local assessment of Pechenihy Dam structure and downstream flooding/water level changes NLT 071500Z. | LOW |

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The time for operational maneuvering of a large reserve force has passed. Actions must prioritize preservation of life and maximizing friction on the RF exploitation force.

OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):
- Action A (Mandatory Decentralization - TERMINAL): J3 must now broadcast via all redundant channels (satellite, HF radio, LNO) the absolute, non-negotiable directive granting all Stepnohorsk unit commanders (Company level and below) complete autonomy to initiate immediate, decentralized break-contact and withdrawal maneuvers using pre-designated, secondary exfiltration routes. Preserve personnel, abandon non-essential equipment.
- Action B (Route Denial Fires): Concentrate all available long-range fire (Artillery/MLRS) and deep strike capacity (UAS) to saturate the Ternuvate - Vasylkivka axis for the next three hours (071100Z - 071400Z). The goal is to delay the 38th GMRB closing the encirclement, creating necessary time for small-unit egress.
- Action C (Exploiting AD Void): Prioritize low-altitude, high-speed UAS missions (recon/strike) against known RF forward assembly areas in the immediate Stepnohorsk sector to disrupt final assault preparations, exploiting the previously identified Buk-M3 AD gap.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):
- Action A (Counter Peace Trap): Task the NCA to issue an immediate, firm statement refuting the Kellogg narrative, stating that any talk of "last 10 meters" is Russian coercion designed to undermine our defense during a critical fight. Reiterate that control over any sovereign territory is non-negotiable.
- Action B (Amplify Resilience): Increase coverage of the Heroes Recognition ceremonies and the successful repatriation of children (St. Nicholas Day), directly juxtaposing UAF positive action with RF destructive strikes (Kinzhal, Dam targeting).
LOGISTICS (J4):
- Action A (Emergency Re-Route Confirmation): Confirm that all logistical throughput previously intended for the Stepnohorsk axis is now permanently re-routed via the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro alternative route, bypassing the damaged Fastiv hub, to stabilize the supply chain for the remaining Southern Front forces.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report