Situation Report

SENIOR MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (D+0/H+12.5 UPDATE)

TIME: 071034Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CRITICAL TIME WINDOW CLOSING // DISPERSAL ORDER OVERDUE // RF CONTINUED STRATEGIC STRIKE DOMAIN EFFORT // HIGH RISK OF CATASTROPHIC OPERATIONAL DEFEAT BY 071800Z

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational crisis on the Stepnohorsk Axis is entering its terminal phase. RF Vostok Group exploitation forces (38th GMRB) are executing the predicted flanking maneuver aimed at encirclement.

• Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk Axis: RF continues deep-strike saturation (KAB/Drones) followed by ground maneuver preparation. The recent air raid alert was canceled at 071020Z, providing a brief, perishable window of reduced air threat severity for UAF maneuver.
• Huliaipole Flank: Confirmation of the flanking assault by the RF 38th GMRB remains the decisive factor. Intelligence indicates the logistical cut-off of the main withdrawal route (Ternuvate-Vasylkivka) is imminent (NLT 071400Z).

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist (Confidence: HIGH), favoring RF ISR, high-tempo tactical aviation, and rapid ground maneuver by flanking elements.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Synchronized operations are confirmed across kinetic and information domains. RF maintains momentum, exploiting UAF C2 paralysis. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK movement status remains UNCONFIRMED 34 minutes prior to the critical 071100Z deadline. Fixed UAF defenders at Stepnohorsk are effectively isolated and face high attrition and the imminent risk of annihilation or mass capture (NLT 071800Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains: Achieve operational encirclement at Stepnohorsk while simultaneously degrading UAF strategic capacity.

• Sustained Massed Firepower: UAF sources confirm RF deployed over 1,600 drones, 1,200 KABs, and 70 missiles over the past week. A significant follow-on wave (071018Z) included >240 drones and 5 ballistic missiles impacting seven regions (including Sloviansk and Chernihiv). (Confidence: HIGH)
• Strategic Focus: The sustained, high-volume targeting of civilian and energy infrastructure confirms a strategic goal of imposing unsustainable civil-military resilience costs, in parallel with kinetic success at Stepnohorsk.
• Localized Pressure: RF propaganda (Colonelcassad, 071021Z) claims tactical success near Pokrovsk, indicating efforts to maintain pressure across multiple front sectors to ensure UAF reserves remain fixed and unable to intervene in Zaporizhzhia.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The current lull in the air campaign (Zaporizhzhia alert canceled 071020Z) likely precedes the final ground push by the 37th GMRB, supported by the 38th GMRB maneuver. RF is conserving high-value assets for the final phase of the encirclement.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

No change. UAF deep strikes continue to impose strategic friction on RF logistics (fuel T+48h constraint), but this does not mitigate immediate tactical capacity.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective and highly synchronized. The most significant RF C2 success lies in the successful use of strategic IO to maintain strategic paralysis within the UAF National Command Authority (NCA) regarding reserve commitment. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Immediate Controlled Dispersal (Disengagement) Required. All UAF fixed forces must now prioritize preserving combat power over holding ground. READINESS: BRAVO-BLOCK readiness is highly questionable due to confirmed C2 paralysis and the ongoing threat from "Mangas" aerial mining and logistical constraints (Fastiv bypass status).

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Operational): Encirclement remains imminent. The failure to confirm the reserve movement NLT 071034Z is a critical C2 failure.
• Success (Deep Battle): Confirmed high-volume destruction of RF energy infrastructure continues to impose long-term cost.
• Success (Information/Resilience): The NCA successfully leverages state ceremonies to honor heroes (071031Z) and maintain high public/military morale despite the staggering kinetic metrics (>1,600 drones/week).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: TIME. The physical and informational window for effective operational disengagement expires NLT 071100Z. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate J3/NCA confirmation of BRAVO-BLOCK status. Assuming the movement has not begun, all focus must shift to providing top cover and fire support for immediate, decentralized, small-unit disengagement from Stepnohorsk.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

(DS Belief: Information Warfare > Propaganda Effort by Russia - 0.2384)

RF continues its multi-layered influence campaign:

1. Normalization of Russian Global Influence (External): TASS report quoting Tucker Carlson's desire to return to Russia (071022Z) supports the narrative that RF is not internationally isolated and retains influence among key Western opinion leaders, reinforcing the "Peace Trap" messaging.
2. Internal RF Unity/Dissidence Management: Pro-Kremlin channels push morale boosts (e.g., bare-knuckle fighting event, 071012Z) while simultaneously facing severe criticism from nationalist hardliners (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, 071020Z) regarding perceived RF MoD cooperation with former adversaries (Syria/HTS), indicating internal ideological friction.
3. Political Coercion (UAF): Claims regarding the necessity of Zelensky monuments post-victory (071032Z) aim to frame UAF political objectives as personality-driven rather than existential, weakening international support.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is characterized by high stress due to confirmed mass strike volumes, countered by high civic engagement (STERNENKO appeal for funding, 071015Z) and state recognition of sacrifices. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF push to legitimize its position via Western media personalities (Carlson) is a coordinated effort to erode confidence in the long-term support guarantees and maintain strategic diplomatic paralysis.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

JUDGMENT: UAF is currently 26 minutes into the final 60-minute window for decisive action. If the order to disperse BRAVO-BLOCK is not issued/executed by 071100Z, the operational collapse of the Stepnohorsk defense is inevitable by dusk.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 95%) RF Completes Encirclement Execution. The RF 38th GMRB utilizes the reduced air threat window (post-alert cancellation) to rapidly secure the main logistical cut-off point. Logistical chokehold over the Ternuvate-Vasylkivka axis is established NLT 071400Z. Fixed UAF forces at Stepnohorsk are isolated and subject to sustained annihilation fires until RF ground forces consolidate the perimeter NLT 071800Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 95%) Mass Capture/Catastrophic Collapse. Identical to MLCOA, but the speed of the 38th GMRB combined with continued C2 failure leads to the capture of high-value UAF officers and major end items, creating a politically and operationally devastating loss for the Southern Sector.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus is now damage control and preservation of high-value combat power. Accept the loss of fixed positions to save the maneuver force.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Mandatory Decentralization - CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): If the centralized NCA order for BRAVO-BLOCK dispersal has not been received, tactical commanders must be granted immediate (NLT 071100Z) discretionary authority to initiate decentralized movement and disengagement without waiting for higher C2 confirmation. Failure to act within minutes guarantees operational defeat.
   • Action B (Route Denial): Expedite the execution of destructive fires (FASCAM/Artillery) on the Ternuvate - Vasylkivka axis. This is the last chance to slow the 38th GMRB encirclement drive.
   • Action C (Exploiting Lull): Utilize the air alert cancellation window (071020Z) for high-speed counter-reconnaissance sorties to pinpoint the 38th GMRB movement profile before RF tactical air coverage returns.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (Refuting External Legitimacy): Counter the TASS/Carlson narrative by framing it as a desperate attempt by RF to distract from its strategic failure to achieve decisive victory. Reaffirm the resolve of the NCA and the UAF forces fighting under immense pressure (citing the confirmed 1,600+ drone/week statistic).
   • Action B (Exploit Internal RF Friction): Task IO elements to amplify and disseminate the internal Russian critiques (e.g., Alex Parker Returns on MoD incompetence/ideological betrayal regarding Syria) to sow discord among hardline Russian elements and decrease domestic confidence in RF leadership.

3. LOGISTICS (J4):

   • Action A (Emergency Resupply): Prioritize immediate, low-level UAS/drone delivery of essential Class V (Ammunition) and Class VIII (Medical) supplies directly to known disengagement points for Stepnohorsk defenders.

//END OF REPORT//