Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (D+1/H+9.5 UPDATE)

TIME: 070945Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CRITICAL MOVEMENT WINDOW CLOSING // RF COGNITIVE STRIKE MAINTAINED // HIGH RISK OF OPERATIONAL PARALYSIS // BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS UNCONFIRMED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces continue to synchronize fixing fires in the Zaporizhzhia sector with flank shaping maneuvers, successfully maintaining maximum pressure on the UAF decision cycle regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

• Frontline (Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk): Multiple confirmed impacts on the Zaporizhzhia District, damaging private residences, auxiliary structures, and local power grids (070836Z, 070902Z). This confirms the RF goal of creating humanitarian pressure points simultaneous with military fixing operations.
• Air Activity (South): UAF Air Force confirms increased RF tactical aviation activity in the South (070900Z). This activity likely supports the Vostok Group's confirmed kinetic operations (070856Z) and covers the maneuvering of the RF 38th GMRB on the Huliaipole flank.
• Deep Battle/Diversion: RF UAV activity confirmed targeting Sumy region (070901Z), indicating continued deep ISR or diversionary strikes to thin UAF air defense assets away from the main effort.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, continuing to favor RF ISR collection and tactical aviation over the Southern Front. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF Vostok Group is executing kinetic strikes (tank fire confirmed by MoD Russia, 070856Z) against UAF temporary deployment areas, synchronized with heavy IO efforts designed to trigger strategic paralysis. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK movement remains the critical operational gap. The elapsed C2 deadline (070830Z) and the current time (070945Z) significantly reduce the available window to achieve a coordinated defensive position NLT 071200Z.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed and being actively executed: Operational encirclement at Stepnohorsk enabled by paralyzing the UAF operational reserve via multi-domain synchronization.

• Capabilities Focus: RF is maximizing the cognitive pressure derived from diplomatic proxies. The simultaneous use of US proxy narratives ("war is almost over," 070843Z) and EU pressure narratives ("don't withdraw from Donbas," 070901Z) creates high friction and risk aversion within the National Command Authority (NCA).
• Kinetic Synchronization: The confirmed strikes on civilian/power infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia District ensure local UAF forces remain fixed and distracted by damage control, preventing effective counter-preparation or forward maneuver.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No major tactical kinematic changes detected in the last hour; RF forces are primarily relying on maintaining high tempo and maximizing the effects of the cognitive domain attack to ensure UAF immobility. RF propaganda (Voin DV, 070837Z) suggesting successful drone strikes in Dobropillya indicates continued ISR/kinetic coverage on the deeper UAF eastern flank, potentially masking 38th GMRB movement. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain constrained (Ryazan BDA from previous report), driving reliance on decentralized fundraising (VDV appeal, 070902Z). UAF logistics remain at DEGRADE 3 (SEVERE) due to the Fastiv strike and subsequent energy interdiction, heightening the urgency for the BRAVO-BLOCK to move before the tertiary logistical corridor is completely compromised.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust. UAF C2 for BRAVO-BLOCK remains a critical point of failure/non-responsiveness. The NCA is currently exposed to maximum RF cognitive influence, directly threatening strategic C2 integrity. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Crisis Response Mode. Readiness is contingent entirely on decentralized action at the operational reserve level. Failure to move immediately (accepting C2 risk) transitions the posture to Operational Crisis NLT 071200Z.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Attrition): UAF Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine claim high attrition success (300+ enemy personnel, 100+ shelters destroyed, 070903Z). This demonstrates strong defensive kinetic performance at the tactical level.
• Setback (Operational): Continued paralysis of the operational reserve's movement execution plan.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint is C2 decision paralysis, exacerbated by the RF IO attack. Requirement remains command initiative and execution of pre-authorized, decentralized movement.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF cognitive campaign is peaking, simultaneously targeting the NCA's political consensus and strategic support:

1. Paralysis by Contradiction: RF amplifies the US proxy (Kellogg) suggesting peace is imminent (070843Z) while simultaneously amplifying Bloomberg reports suggesting the EU demands Ukraine not withdraw from Donbas (070901Z). This is a textbook operational IO effort to create strategic distrust between Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels, paralyzing the movement decision. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Framing the US: The Kremlin (Peskov) frames the US NSS as a potential basis for "constructive work" (070845Z), attempting to signal Moscow's flexibility while placing the burden of further concessions/action on Washington/Kyiv.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale remains robust (as noted in the previous report). However, the highly centralized nature of the diplomatic narratives requires immediate, unified NCA denial to prevent erosion of trust.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO is successfully leveraging internal Western political dissent (German coalition weakness, 070840Z) to paint a picture of fractured support and isolation for Ukraine.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The time compression dictates that the MDCOA is rapidly converging with the MLCOA.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) If BRAVO-BLOCK movement status remains unconfirmed past 071030Z, the reserve will be unable to establish a coordinated defensive position. RF 37th GMRB utilizes its momentum and confirmed fixing fires to achieve a tactical breakthrough at Stepnohorsk. RF ISR/FPV teams maintain constant attrition on scattered reserve elements along the tertiary logistics route (Ternuvate-Vasylkivka). Tactical defeat NLT 071800Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability 80%) Exploiting the immobilization/fragmentation of BRAVO-BLOCK, RF 38th GMRB (Vostok Group) conducts a decisive flanking maneuver, potentially utilizing the increased tactical aviation coverage (070900Z) to mask movement. The 38th GMRB positions to sever the remaining logistical routes and secure operational encirclement of forward UAF units NLT 071800Z.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical decision point is confirming the actual physical movement of the reserve.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The key failure point is command hesitation under intense cognitive fire. The order must be repeated and decentralized to subordinate commanders: MOVE NOW, CONTEST THE CORRIDOR, DO NOT WAIT FOR NCA POLITICAL CLARITY.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Movement Execution - CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): Reissue the decentralized movement order. Direct J3 to communicate via secure, redundant channels to BRAVO-BLOCK commanders: Movement execution is mandatory based on local readiness; waiting for higher C2 confirmation is a violation of the pre-planned crisis mandate.
   • Action B (Corridor Clearance Activation): Confirm that the 67th OMBr forward elements have been tasked to immediately proceed to the Ternuvate - Vasylkivka axis to begin counter-reconnaissance and FPV hunting operations, leveraging the cover provided by the immediate deployment of EW assets.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (NCA Counter-Narrative - URGENT): The National Command Authority (NCA) must issue a unified, unambiguous denial of all diplomatic rumors NLT 071030Z. The statement must emphasize that these contradictory rumors are a coordinated RF IO attack designed to freeze UAF operational reserve movement and enable a kinetic defeat at Stepnohorsk.
   • Action B (Diplomatic Synchronization): Immediately brief US and EU counterparts on the active IO campaign, requesting synchronized public statements confirming full support and denying secret negotiations regarding withdrawal or concession of sovereign territory.

3. FORCE PROTECTION (J6):

   • Action A (EW Priority): Ensure that the movement of all EW assets dedicated to the reserve corridor is physically protected by accompanying mechanized or specialized infantry security elements. EW capability is the primary countermeasure against the RF "Mangas" aerial mining threat.

//END OF REPORT//