Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (D+1/H+8.5 UPDATE)

TIME: 070835Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: C2 DEADLINE ELAPSED: BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT UNCONFIRMED // RF MDCOA ACCELERATED BY KINETIC & COGNITIVE SYNCHRONIZATION // CRITICAL WINDOW CLOSING

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The situation remains critical, defined by RF efforts to simultaneously fix the Stepnohorsk frontal defense, bypass the Huliaipole flank, and kinetically paralyze the rear operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) movement corridor.

• Frontline (Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia): High-intensity RF fires continue. Confirmed multiple RF strikes in the Zaporizhzhia District (070807Z – 070823Z). This is synchronizing pressure on local defenses while setting conditions for a breakthrough.
• Flank Pressure (Huliaipole): RF aviation strikes confirmed near Huliaipole, Danylivka, and Malomykhaylivka (070823Z GSZSU). This validates the ongoing shaping operation by RF 38th GMRB, confirming the shift towards the MDCOA bypass.
• Logistical Corridor (Ternuvate/Vasylkivka): Confirmed continued RF deep strike activity against strategic energy infrastructure (Poltava, Kremenchuk, Chernihiv, 070813Z), designed to inhibit rail throughput and electrical power for key C2 nodes along the western logistics routes.
• Counter-Mobility Opportunity: UAF 67th OMBr reported successful clearance/liberation of Tykhyi (Dnipropetrovsk region, 070827Z). This location is near the contested tertiary logistical axis, presenting a possible local force available for immediate counter-FPV patrols.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring RF long-range UAS/ISR and tactical aviation operations over the contested deep battle space. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF is fully executing its multi-domain synchronization plan (fixing fires, flank shaping, deep kinetic strikes, and simultaneous IO/cognitive warfare). UAF: The hard deadline for BRAVO-BLOCK C2 confirmation and movement execution (070830Z) has elapsed without confirmation in available feeds. Operational command must now assume IMMEDIATE MOVEMENT UNDER SUB-OPTIMAL C2 to avoid logistical catastrophe and operational encirclement.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed: Achieve operational encirclement at Stepnohorsk by 071800Z, enabled by logistical paralysis of the UAF operational reserve.

• RF Capabilities Focus: RF forces are leveraging multi-source IO (Bloomberg, Trump proxies, Elon Musk) to create a climate of strategic doubt within the National Command Authority (NCA) and European allies. This cognitive pressure is designed to achieve the same result as a successful deep strike—freezing the BRAVO-BLOCK movement. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Kinetic Synchronization: The continued strikes on Zaporizhzhia (070812Z) synchronize with the flank pressure at Huliaipole (070823Z) and the deep strike interdiction threats (Ternuvate FPV, energy strikes). The operational tempo is accelerating.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary tactical adaptation is the rapid and massive deployment of sophisticated cognitive warfare immediately following the kinetic deep strikes. The simultaneous release of contradictory diplomatic narratives (US proxy suggesting peace is near, EU urging no withdrawal) coupled with high-profile disinformation (Musk/Swastika/EU comparison) targets the decision-makers facing maximum operational stress.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF LOGISTICS STATUS: DEGRADE 3 (SEVERE, ACTIVE CONTESTED). The energy strikes on Poltava/Kremenchuk further degrade the overall logistical resilience, potentially affecting C4ISR capability and complicating rerouting efforts following the Fastiv strike.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective and synchronized across domains. UAF C2 for BRAVO-BLOCK mobilization is confirmed as NON-RESPONSIVE past the critical 070830Z deadline. Recovery requires immediate, decentralized initiative. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive Crisis // Mandatory Decentralized Movement Initiation. Readiness depends on whether the reserve commanders execute the pre-planned movement order immediately, accepting the risk of FPV attrition, rather than waiting for secure, confirmed C2 from the highest levels.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Operational): Failure to confirm C2/movement of the reserve by 070830Z. This significantly increases the risk profile of the MLCOA/MDCOA.
• Success (Tactical/Local): Confirmed local success by 67th OMBr at Tykhyi (Dnipropetrovsk). This demonstrates effective localized maneuver capability which must be repurposed immediately to secure the contested logistical route.
• Success (Cognitive Resistance): High public morale evidenced by rapid mobilization of funding campaigns (STERNENKO: $8M out of $10M target) provides a domestic counter-narrative to the RF IO campaign.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate resource requirement is not materiel, but command initiative. The primary constraint is the paralysis caused by the perceived C2 failure and the kinetic threat to movement.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Operations are peaking, focusing on fracturing the Western coalition and inciting paralysis:

1. US Abandonment: Amplification of Trump proxy (Kellogg) claims that a "deal is on the finishing line," intended to signal US withdrawal and pressure Ukraine into concessions.
2. EU Discord/Isolation: Mass amplification of Bloomberg reports stating EU pressure on Zelensky to not withdraw from Donbas, suggesting a severe diplomatic split. Simultaneously, RF actors amplify Elon Musk's anti-EU rhetoric (Swastika comparison) to delegitimize the primary financial backer of Ukraine's defense. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic sentiment shows resilience (fundraising success). However, the highly centralized and contradictory narratives regarding "peace talks" and "withdrawal pressure" pose a severe risk of strategic distrust if not immediately countered by unified NCA communications.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO successfully leveraged perceived or fabricated friction between US/European policymakers and the NCA to exacerbate the operational crisis.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The MDCOA is now the dominant threat due to the elapsed C2 deadline and confirmed RF flank shaping.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB fixes UAF units at Stepnohorsk. Due to continued C2 failure, BRAVO-BLOCK movement is fragmented and delayed beyond 071200Z. RF ISR/FPV teams (14th Spetsnaz) conduct sustained attrition warfare against vulnerable logistics and scattered reserve units on the tertiary network, preventing a coordinated counter-attack position. Tactical defeat at Stepnohorsk NLT 071800Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability Increased) RF 38th GMRB, supported by current aviation strikes (confirmed Huliaipole), executes a rapid, successful bypass maneuver, exploiting the existing P4 Gap while forward UAF forces are depleted of Class V resupply (due to Fastiv/Ternuvate interdiction). The immobilization of BRAVO-BLOCK allows the 38th GMRB to position for operational encirclement of forward UAF battalions NLT 071800Z.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The operational decision point has passed C2 recovery and now centers entirely on movement execution and corridor protection.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The order must be MOVE NOW, CONTEST THE CORRIDOR, IGNORE COGNITIVE DISTRACTIONS.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Movement Execution - CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): Issue the general order for BRAVO-BLOCK commanders to execute the move order immediately based on local C2/MCE status, overriding the previous C2 confirmation requirement. Accept increased FPV risk temporarily over the certainty of operational paralysis.
   • Action B (Integrated Corridor Protection): Direct the 67th OMBr forward element (fresh from Tykhyi operation) to immediately conduct a counter-reconnaissance and sweep operation along the Ternuvate - Vasylkivka axis to hunt 14th Spetsnaz FPV teams. This must precede the reserve column.
   • Action C (EW Commitment): Prioritize all available EW assets (Bukovel-AD and localized jamming vehicles) to establish a moving, phased EW defense corridor for the reserve. The lead element must carry the heaviest EW protection.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (NCA Counter-Narrative - URGENT): The National Command Authority (NCA) must issue a unified, decisive statement NLT 070930Z specifically addressing the diplomatic disinformation. The message must frame the rumors (withdrawal, secret talks) as desperate RF IO attempts to paralyze Ukraine while they commit mass casualties to a futile offensive at Stepnohorsk.
   • Action B (Ally Coordination): Immediately coordinate with high-level US and European diplomatic channels to issue synchronized, public denials of the Bloomberg (withdrawal) and Kellogg (deal imminent) narratives.

3. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Damage Assessment/Reroute): Prioritize rapid BDA on the Poltava/Kremenchuk energy strikes to assess long-term logistical impact on rail switching and local power supply for C2 nodes. Re-validate the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass route immediately.

//END OF REPORT//