Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (T+8 HOURS UPDATE)

TIME: 070805Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: LOGISTICAL CORRIDOR CONTESTED: TERTIARY ROUTE INTERDICTION CONFIRMED // BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT STATUS REMAINS UNCONFIRMED POST 070800Z DEADLINE // MDCOA IMMINENT

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk continues to draw UAF attention. The focus of the deep battle has shifted from striking static logistics hubs to kinetic interdiction of mobile supply lines and reserve movement corridors.

• Frontline (Stepnohorsk): Contact remains high-intensity. RF tactical aviation is highly active along the Southern and Eastern axes, providing Close Air Support (CAS) and fixing UAF AD assets.
• Deep Battle (Logistical Interdiction Confirmation): RF 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (Vostok Group) confirmed executing an FPV drone strike against a UAF armored vehicle at Ternuvate, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0738Z).
  • Analytical Judgment: Ternuvate is situated along the tertiary road network south-east of Dnipro. This confirms that RF forces are actively utilizing small-unit ISR/FPV assets to hunt the intended BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement corridor, validating the MLCOA/MDCOA predictions regarding logistical interdiction.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring RF ISR and long-range tactical aviation operations.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF is utilizing synchronized kinetic pressure (KABs on Zaporizhzhia, Sumy) and dedicated FPV hunting units (14th Spetsnaz) to exploit the C2/logistical paralysis resulting from the overnight strike package. UAF: The critical deadline for BRAVO-BLOCK C2 confirmation and movement execution (070800Z) has passed. C2 FAILURE AND MOVEMENT IMMOBILIZATION MUST BE ASSUMED until positive confirmation is received. UAF AD is engaged by active RF tactical aviation on the Southern Axis.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is confirmed to paralyze UAF reinforcement and resupply operations by targeting the tertiary road network.

• Intention: Prevent BRAVO-BLOCK from achieving Moving Capability Effective (MCE) NLT 071200Z.
• New Capability Confirmation: RF is deploying specialized SOF/ISR units (14th Spetsnaz) deep into Dnipropetrovsk to conduct counter-mobility operations using FPV/UAS, specifically targeting the high-capacity civilian infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH).
• Multi-Domain Synchronization: RF information operations (Tribunal/Nuremberg narrative, NYT quoting internal discord) are being deployed simultaneously with deep kinetic action to maximize internal UAF friction and strategic paralysis.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed FPV strike at Ternuvate demonstrates a tactical adaptation to neutralize UAF convoys on tertiary routes where AD/EW coverage is thinner compared to primary arteries. This maximizes the effect of the overnight saturation strike.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF LOGISTICS STATUS: DEGRADE 3 (SEVERE, ACTIVE CONTESTED). The tertiary road network, which is the only viable route for the reserve, is now under active RF interdiction. Immediate, overwhelming EW and AD coverage is required to secure any movement.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF deep strike C2 remains highly effective. UAF C2 effectiveness regarding BRAVO-BLOCK mobilization is assessed as CRITICALLY COMPROMISED OR FAILED as of 070800Z.

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive Crisis // C2 Recovery and Route Security. UAF readiness depends entirely on successfully overriding the C2 failure and rapidly deploying EW/AD assets to secure the tertiary corridor before RF deep-strike assets can inflict mission kills on the reserve column.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (C2 Failure): The most critical operational failure remains the inability to confirm reserve movement initiation past the 070730Z deadline.
• Setback (Route Interdiction): Confirmed enemy contact (FPV strike at Ternuvate) on the critical logistical lifeline is a severe tactical setback, requiring immediate resource diversion.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint remains C2 and movement execution, further amplified by the immediate requirement for dedicated mobile EW assets to counter FPV/UAS threats on the tertiary roads.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign has transitioned into an aggressive, multi-pronged attack on UAF legitimacy and morale, synchronized precisely with the kinetic crisis:

1. Strategic Isolation: Renewed amplification of the "Peace Trap" and "EU/US Abandonment" narratives (Kallas/Trump).
2. Delegitimization (Cognitive Saturation): Introduction of the "Nuremberg Tribunal" narrative (Belief 0.47) to delegitimize the entire Ukrainian defense structure and leadership.
3. Internal Chaos: RF amplifying foreign media reports (NYT) to highlight internal UAF difficulties.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The combination of continued mass strikes (KABs/Air Activity) and coordinated information warfare risks triggering a surge in domestic anxiety, possibly leading to pressure on the NCA to divert limited AD assets to cover capital/non-frontline areas.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF/PRC joint anti-missile exercises are being promoted to demonstrate strategic alignment (Belief 0.20), serving as a counter-narrative to Western unity and strategic deterrence. The diplomatic friction regarding possible troop withdrawals (Bloomberg attribution) further complicates NCA decisions during the crisis.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The operational crisis is now active and the MDCOA is currently being enabled by successful RF deep interdiction.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB continues to fix forward UAF units at Stepnohorsk, achieving costly but steady penetration. RF ISR/SOF/FPV assets successfully identify and interdict the BRAVO-BLOCK column on the tertiary road network near Dnipro/Vasylkivka (Ternuvate area), leading to significant delays and piecemeal attrition. Logistical friction prevents the reserve from achieving decisive counter-attack position NLT 071400Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Probability Increased) Logistical C2 failure continues past 070900Z. RF FPV/UAS teams inflict critical mission kill on lead elements of BRAVO-BLOCK (e.g., fuel trucks, C2 vehicles) on the tertiary road network, causing a total halt. Simultaneously, the RF 38th GMRB executes the rapid bypass operation via the Huliaipole flank (Gap P4), exploiting the lack of Class V resupply for UAF holding forces. The result is operational encirclement of forward UAF battalions NLT 071800Z, forcing a disorganized retreat or surrender.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The time window for effective counter-action is now compressed to the next 60 minutes.

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus must immediately shift from logistical reorganization to securing the C2 and physical movement of the reserve force against active RF deep strike interdiction.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Recovery - CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): Direct three redundancy C2 teams (SATCOM/HF/EW-protected mesh radio) to the BRAVO-BLOCK location. Issue the move order NLT 070830Z with MCLC leads and maximal EW protection. Movement delays beyond this point drastically increase the probability of operational encirclement.
   • Action B (Counter-FPV/ISR Sweep): Immediately task all available Mobile Group 9 (EW/AD) assets to establish a moving defense corridor (EW Bubble) along the Vasylkivka - Ternuvate - Front axis. Prioritize jamming the L-Band and S-Band drone uplinks and directing counter-FPV patrols (light vehicles with small arms/RF signal finders) to operate ahead and on the flanks of the reserve column.
   • Action C (Air Defense Allocation): Divert mobile AD assets (e.g., Gepard, Strela-10) currently protecting fixed infrastructure to provide direct, low-altitude air defense cover for the BRAVO-BLOCK column along the tertiary route.

2. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Logistical Protection): Integrate heavy EW coverage into the lead and rear elements of all critical logistics convoys (Class V/VII) moving along the tertiary route. Every transport truck must assume it is a high-value target (HVT).
   • Action B (Route Clearance): Prioritize immediate mine clearance (MCLC utilization) on all key choke points along the tertiary route, assuming RF "Mangas" aerial mining is active based on previous warnings.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (Counter-Nuremberg Narrative): NCA must coordinate with allied legal and diplomatic bodies to issue a high-level preemptive statement refuting the RF "Nuremberg" tribunal narrative, framing it as a desperate attempt to distract from RF military failures (Ryazan/Uryupinsk strikes). This must be done NLT 071000Z to protect internal cohesion.

//END OF REPORT//