Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (T+40 MINUTES UPDATE)

TIME: 070745Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS CONFIRMED: BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT OVERDUE // MDCOA IMMINENT DUE TO RESERVE IMMOBILIZATION // AD SATURATION ATTACK CONFIRMED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk continues. Kinetic activity is synchronized with massive deep strike saturation.

• Frontline (Stepnohorsk): Engaged. No definitive BDA on RF 37th GMRB attrition, suggesting continued high-intensity contact (Gap P2).
• Deep Battle (Logistical Interdiction): UAF Air Force confirms a massive overnight strike utilizing 241 UAVs and 5 missiles (including Kinzhals/ballistics) targeting critical infrastructure. This confirms the previously assessed extreme risk to the logistical network (Fastiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk).
• Contested Area (Dnipropetrovsk): UAF sources claim expulsion of RF forces from Tykhe, Dnipropetrovsk region. This indicates local fighting near the logistical hubs, potentially involving RF VDV/SAB teams exploiting the strike chaos, or aggressive UAF counter-reconnaissance.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cold conditions persist. Conditions remain optimal for RF ISR/UAS utilization over logistics corridors.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF demonstrated extreme synchronization between VKS (massive air attack) and 37th GMRB maneuver. Focus is now on exploiting the resultant logistical chaos. RF tactical aviation is active in the Northeast (Kupiansk), likely to fix UAF air defense assets. UAF: AD assets displayed high resilience, intercepting/suppressing 179/246 incoming targets. However, the sheer volume dictates significant damage penetration. The C2 status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and the initiation of movement (070730Z decision point) is OVERDUE (CRITICAL).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent to achieve operational paralysis is now validated by the scale and volume of the overnight deep strike campaign (Confidence: HIGH).

• Logistical Denial: The multi-domain, saturation attack was designed to overwhelm UAF AD and ensure mission kill on crucial rail/road transfer points at Dnipropetrovsk. The subsequent focus will be on the tertiary road network to stop BRAVO-BLOCK.
• Information Warfare (IO): RF IO is synchronizing tactical pressure (Kupiansk claims of UAF retreat/executions) with strategic narratives ("Peace Trap," "Zelensky Collapse") aimed directly at freezing NCA decision-making regarding reserve commitment.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The use of 241 UAVs and multiple missile types demonstrates RF adaptation to UAF AD capability, opting for sheer volume saturation to guarantee infrastructure damage.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF LOGISTICS STATUS: DEGRADE 3 (SEVERE). Based on the scale of the saturation strike, the immediate assumption must be that the Dnipro hub (rail and key road junctions) is operationally compromised, rendering the secondary bypass unusable for heavy traffic. The logistics effort must now be 100% focused on the tertiary road plan.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF deep strike C2 remains highly effective. UAF C2 effectiveness regarding the timely deployment of BRAVO-BLOCK is in question, given the missed movement deadline (070730Z).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive Crisis // Logistics Operational Degradation. Readiness is critically dependent on the immediate transition to truck convoys. The internal political controversy (Kuzmuk appointment) is adding unwarranted institutional risk during a kinetic crisis (Confidence: MEDIUM).

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Operational Delay): The failure to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK movement initiation NLT 070730Z is a severe operational setback, directly increasing the likelihood of the MDCOA.
• Success (Air Defense): AD assets achieved a 72% success rate against confirmed targets (179/246), mitigating total infrastructural collapse, but saturation ensured a material effect.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint has transitioned from route integrity to C2 and movement execution. All logistical and EW resources must be immediately committed to securing the road network and establishing dedicated C2 redundancy for the reserve.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF hybrid synchronization is at maximum tempo:

1. Strategic Paralysis: Amplification of diplomatic rumors ("Trump changes priorities," Strelkov's analysis of a 'secret deal') to discourage sustained Western aid and NCA reserve commitment.
2. Internal Dissolution: Claims of execution squads (Kupiansk) and promotion of controversial internal appointments (Kuzmuk) to maximize friction and demoralization.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF IO is promoting AD success (179 intercepts) and local administration resilience (Dnipropetrovsk ODA). However, the perception of escalation (mass strikes) and internal friction risks public confidence degradation, potentially leading to increased demands for defensive resource reallocation away from the Southern Front MLD.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF information campaign is highly coordinated to ensure that any diplomatic chatter, even speculative, is timed to coincide with the kinetic MLD phase, hoping to achieve strategic friction.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The operational crisis has matured. The failure to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK movement NLT 070730Z means immediate countermeasures are required to prevent logistical paralysis from turning into operational encirclement.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB continues to fix forward UAF units at Stepnohorsk, achieving a moderate, costly penetration. RF ISR exploits the logistical chaos resulting from the saturation strikes and focuses residual UAS/strike assets on interdicting the tertiary road movement of BRAVO-BLOCK between Dnipro/Vasylkivka and the front. UAF stabilizes the line late 07 DEC, but the cost is higher than projected due to slow reserve arrival and degraded resupply of forward forces.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Increased Certainty due to Time Overrun) The massive combined air attack has paralyzed the Dnipro hub and, combined with logistical C2 failure, prevents BRAVO-BLOCK from achieving MCE for deployment before 071200Z. The RF 38th GMRB successfully executes a rapid bypass operation via the Huliaipole flank (Gap P4), exploiting the lack of Class V resupply for UAF holding forces. The 37th GMRB achieves a deep operational penetration, leading to operational encirclement of forward UAF battalions NLT 071800Z.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The critical failure to confirm the 070730Z reserve movement requires shifting all efforts to recovering C2 and safeguarding the tertiary road corridor immediately.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Recovery - CRITICAL): ASSUME C2 DEGRADATION. Dedicated communications teams (SATCOM/HF redundancy) must immediately converge on the BRAVO-BLOCK holding area to confirm status and issue the mandatory move order. Mandate movement NLT 070830Z, regardless of BDA status.
   • Action B (Counter-Mobility Defense): Immediately task all available dedicated mobile EW platforms (Bukovel-AD) to secure the designated tertiary road corridor south of Dnipro, prioritizing defense against "Mangas" aerial mining and long-range ISR.
   • Action C (Northeast Fixation): Initiate high-volume counter-battery fire against confirmed RF positions in the Kupiansk sector to counter RF tactical aviation activity and prevent the fixation of UAF AD assets needed in the South.

2. LOGISTICS AND AIR DEFENSE (J4/J7):

   • Action A (Logistical Redundancy - EXECUTE TERTIARY NOW): ASSUME MAXIMUM INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE. Immediately commence the transfer of all remaining Class V and Class VII supplies onto heavy truck convoys. The tertiary road supply line must be active and moving NLT 070800Z.
   • Action B (AD Road Protection): Immediately redeploy all mobile AD assets to the tertiary road transit nodes and fuel depots in the Dnipropetrovsk/Vasylkivka region. Prioritize defense of high-capacity road junctions over previous rail targets.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (Counter-Isolation Narrative - IMMEDIATE, NCA LEVEL): The National Command Authority must issue an official, high-tempo denial of the "Kellogg Agreement" narrative NLT 070800Z. Failure to act immediately validates the RF information operation and risks political paralysis.
   • Action B (Internal Cohesion): NCA must issue a rapid, controlled statement addressing the Kuzmuk controversy to mitigate internal friction and maintain public confidence during the kinetic crisis.

//END OF REPORT//