Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (T+34 MINUTES)

TIME: 070634Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: EXECUTION CONFIRMED: MLD INITIATION & DEEP LOGISTICAL INTERDICTION // MDCOA RISK ELEVATED TO EXTREME // IMMEDIATE C2/FIRES CONFIRMATION REQUIRED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF kinetic activity is confirmed across multiple domains, initiating the anticipated Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (anticipated NLT 070600Z).

• Main Effort: The RF 37th GMRB assault is confirmed engaged. Frontline UAF units are currently absorbing the initial kinetic wave.
• Flank Support: RF milblogger reporting confirms active kinetic preparation/engagement on the Zaporizhzhia right flank (Huliaipole axis) (06:18Z), validating the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) assumption of synchronized flank pressure by the 38th GMRB.
• Deep Battle: A successful and massive RF combined missile/UAS attack was conducted overnight against Poltavshchyna (06:26Z, 06:33Z). This critically targets the contingency logistical bypass route (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro), indicating RF strategic intent to paralyze Southern Front resupply during the MLD.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, enabling high-tempo RF ISR and kinetic strikes, particularly the combined UAS/missile attacks observed against Poltava.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Fully engaged in kinetic maneuver at Stepnohorsk and synchronized deep strikes against the UAF logistical depth. RF C2 appears effective in coordinating the multi-domain (kinetic, deep strike, IO) synchronized offensive. UAF: Frontline units are engaged. The status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and the effectiveness of contingency fire missions (Action A from previous SITREP, NLT 070545Z) remain the critical intelligence gap. Kryvyi Rih (NW flank) is reported controlled (06:14Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed: Achieve operational breakthrough by kinetic force while simultaneously isolating the Southern Front logistically and cognitively paralyzing UAF decision-makers.

• Tactical Intent (Stepnohorsk): Utilize 38th GMRB flank pressure (Huliaipole) to prevent UAF reserves from being deployed effectively to the MLD main effort. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Strategic Intent (Logistics): The Poltava strike confirms RF capability and intent to target the secondary rail/road network supporting the Southern Front, escalating the logistical threat beyond the Fastiv strike. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation is evident in the geographic shift of deep strikes from Kyiv Oblast (Fastiv) further west and east (Poltava), specifically targeting the alternate Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro route, which was identified as the required UAF bypass in previous reporting.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF LOGISTICS STATUS: CRITICAL. Damage assessment on Poltava infrastructure is required immediately. If the Poltava attack degraded the bypass capacity, UAF Class V (Ammunition) throughput to the Stepnohorsk axis is now under extreme threat of collapse within T+12 hours.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating high synchronization across geographically separated kinetic operations (Stepnohorsk, Huliaipole, Poltava) and hybrid operations (IO). UAF C2 effectiveness hinges entirely on the integrity of the BRAVO-BLOCK command chain, which remains unconfirmed (Gap P1).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: DEFENSIVE CRISIS // RESERVE: HIGHLY VULNERABLE. Readiness is currently low due to the combination of the unconfirmed C2 for the critical reserve and the rapidly escalating logistical threats. If BRAVO-BLOCK is delayed by logistical constraints (Poltava BDA), operational paralysis is imminent.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Logistical/Deep): Confirmed massive combined missile/drone strike on Poltavshchyna overnight represents a severe setback to logistical resilience.
• Setback (IO/Cognitive): UAF channels amplifying the "Kellogg Agreement" narrative (06:30Z) is a severe counter-IO failure, potentially damaging troop morale and increasing NCA risk aversion during the kinetic crisis.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most critical resource requirement is the immediate maintenance or re-routing of Class V resupply. EW assets protecting BRAVO-BLOCK must be considered attritable under the current RF operational tempo.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is now actively synchronized with kinetic operations, designed to create confusion, demoralization, and perceived diplomatic isolation.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Kinetic Cover/Morale Boost: RF state media (TASS) is projecting domestic confidence via fabricated sports victories (UFC/Yan, 06:10Z) to project strength and deflect attention from internal RF logistical gaps (Ryazan NPZ).
2. Strategic Isolation Narrative (URGENT Countermeasure): The amplification of the "Ukraine agreement nearing final stage" narrative (Kellogg, 06:30Z) is directly targeted at the NCA and Western partners, attempting to stop or delay the commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve by implying the diplomatic situation is resolved or lost.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The NCA must provide an immediate, highly visible strategic counter-narrative to offset the combined shock of the Stepnohorsk MLD, the Poltava strike, and the "peace agreement" rumor. Local morale remains mixed (Kryvyi Rih controlled, Kharkiv reports strikes).

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO is actively exploiting diplomatic uncertainty to pressure Kyiv at the tactical moment of breakthrough.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The operational clock is T+34 minutes. MDCOA execution risk is now EXTREME due to confirmed flank activation and deep logistical interdiction.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB achieves a moderate breakthrough (4-6 km) at Stepnohorsk. UAF contingency fires impose significant attrition, but the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is severely delayed or attrited by "Mangas" aerial mining and heavy enemy fires due to the confirmed C2/EW gaps. Logistics pressure from Fastiv/Poltava prevents rapid counter-attack organization. UAF stabilizes the line defensively by 080600Z, but loses significant tactical depth.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB achieves operational penetration (>10 km) while the 38th GMRB secures an uncontested bypass route around Huliaipole (confirmed active flank). The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is paralyzed or destroyed en route due to effective RF tactical ISR exploitation of the C2 gap, coupled with logistical starvation stemming from the Poltava strike. This leads to the operational encirclement of forward UAF battalions on the Stepnohorsk axis NLT 071800Z.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus shifts from pre-launch preparation to managing the breakthrough, protecting the reserve, and neutralizing the logistical paralysis effort.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve Protection - URGENT): CONFIRM OR INITIATE immediate defensive fire support (smoke, cluster munitions, conventional barrage) along the BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridor. Without confirmation of contingency fires (Action A from previous SITREP), the reserve is naked.
   • Action B (Counter-Flank Threat): Immediately allocate and prepare fire support assets (tube artillery/MLRS) to target predicted movement routes on the Huliaipole right flank (38th GMRB), preempting any bypass maneuver (Gap P4).
   • Action C (Exploit AD Void): Leverage the confirmed Buk-M3 AD void (T-30 SITREP) to deploy high-value, loitering munitions (e.g., Switchblade/Shahed-style UAF platforms) over the 37th GMRB's penetration depth, exploiting the momentary AD weakness.

2. LOGISTICS AND AIR DEFENSE (J4/J7):

   • Action A (Logistical Redundancy - URGENT): ASSUME POLTAVA BYPASS IS COMPROMISED. Immediately activate tertiary supply routes utilizing road networks south of Poltava toward Dnipro. Direct all surviving long-range AD assets (NASAMS/S-300) to cover the identified road and rail hubs in the Poltava/Kremenchuk region to prevent follow-on strikes.
   • Action B (Repair Prioritization): Immediately dispatch damage assessment teams (BDA P2) and repair crews to Poltava rail/road nodes, prioritizing lines that can handle heavy equipment transit.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (Counter-Isolation Narrative - IMMEDIATE, NCA LEVEL): The National Command Authority must issue an official, high-tempo denial of the "Kellogg Agreement" narrative (06:30Z) NLT 070700Z. Frame the rumor as an "expected RF information barrage timed precisely to cover their failed breakthrough attempt."
   • Action B (Domestic Morale): Simultaneously publish and amplify evidence of high attrition imposed on the RF MLD forces (using BDA from Action C, J3/J6) to demonstrate frontline success immediately following the denial.

//END OF REPORT//