Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS (T-MINUS 30)

TIME: 070604Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CRITICAL: MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT // MDCOA EXECUTION ASSUMED // RESERVE PROTECTION IS PARAMOUNT

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains hyper-critical. The RF 37th GMRB is confirmed in final pre-assault posture for the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk, anticipated NLT 070600Z (T-MINUS 30 minutes). Flank pressure from the RF 38th GMRB (Huliaipole axis) is confirmed via continued shaping fires.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring offensive ISR and kinetic maneuver, particularly for RF drone operations.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Fully synchronized for kinetic initiation. RF AD C2 remains strained (SAR score 42.26) due to the confirmed loss of the Buk-M3 system, but centralized command is compensating. RF Vostok Group (36th Army) UAVs are active against UAF communications and vehicles. UAF: Frontline units maintain a defensive hold at Phase Line ALPHA. The operational center of gravity, the dispersed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, is presumed compromised or significantly delayed due to the lack of confirmed C2 ("Code BLACK" check failed at 070500Z). Contingency fires and EW protection must now be active. AIR: UAF Air Force reports active drone movement from Donetsk direction into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (05:48Z), indicating active UAF deep strike/ISR positioning or RF reconnaissance.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains fixed: Operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk, forcing UAF to commit an attrited reserve, leading to operational encirclement.

• Observed Capability (UAS/ISR): RF Vostok Group UAV operators are actively targeting UAF automotive equipment, communication gear, and opposing drones (05:50Z). This validates the intelligence that the "Mangas" aerial mining threat is integrated with persistent tactical reconnaissance aimed at disrupting the reserve movement. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Strategic Signal: China and Russia are conducting a third joint anti-missile drill (05:48Z). This is a strategic signal aimed at reinforcing RF geopolitical stability and deterring NATO escalation during the anticipated kinetic breakthrough. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No significant tactical changes observed in the immediate T-30 window, suggesting RF adherence to the established MLD timing to exploit the existing UAF C2 and logistical gaps.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain pressured by UAF deep strikes (Ryazan NPZ). UAF logistics remain constrained by the confirmed disruption of the Fastiv rail hub, necessitating the immediate and confirmed use of the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass route for Southern Front resupply.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is tactically prioritizing UAS intelligence collection and counter-UAS operations (05:50Z) to secure the MLD assembly area and interdict the UAF reserve. The strain on AD C2 (SAR 42.26) presents a time-sensitive exploitation window for UAF CAS/deep fires.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL DEFENSIVE HOLD // RESERVE: ASSUME MDCOA ENGAGED. Readiness is dependent upon the successful execution of the MDCOA C2 Failure Contingency Plan initiated at 070530Z, specifically the deployment of kinetic cover and EW countermeasures to protect BRAVO-BLOCK during its final mobilization into the attack zone.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback: P1 C2 confirmation failure for BRAVO-BLOCK (070500Z) remains the principal operational risk, dramatically increasing the chance of an MDCOA execution.
• Success (Indirect): Continued UAF deep strike capability is confirmed by RF air defense claims of UAV destruction over Bryansk Oblast (06:00Z).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: The commitment of EW support (Bukovel) must be maintained and synchronized with the forward movement of BRAVO-BLOCK to neutralize "Mangas" and Vostok Group reconnaissance assets. U.S. Support Signal: The Pentagon studying Ukrainian autonomous systems (05:53Z) is an important strategic signal of continued high-level U.S. technical support, valuable for counter-IO efforts.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is now saturated with synchronized RF narratives designed to induce diplomatic doubt and bolster domestic stability immediately prior to the MLD launch.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Strategic Coercion: RF media continues to amplify narratives targeting European unity (Kallas criticism, EU fragmentation comments) (05:42Z, 06:02Z). This effort attempts to pressure Western capitals into seeking premature diplomatic off-ramps, undermining confidence in Kyiv's ability to resist the imminent MLD.
2. Domestic Stabilization: RF state media promotes narratives of economic resilience (Nikon registration, R&D growth) (05:43Z, 05:58Z) and military heroism (Veremeenko feature, 06:03Z). This is standard op-tempo for RF efforts to ensure domestic support and morale during kinetic escalation.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF counter-IO must focus on technical superiority and U.S. strategic backing (autonomous systems study) to offset the RF narratives of diplomatic and military isolation.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The joint China/Russia anti-missile drills (05:48Z) complicate Western diplomatic responses, requiring careful framing by Kyiv to avoid the perception of increased RF global dominance just as the Southern Front faces potential collapse.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The operational window is now critical (T-26 minutes). Actions must reflect the assumption of MDCOA execution.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF 37th GMRB MLD launches 070600Z. UAF contingency fires delay or disrupt the initial RF wave. Focused EW jamming protects BRAVO-BLOCK from precise targeting, though minor attrition is incurred by "Mangas." RF achieves a shallow tactical penetration (<5km). UAF reserve commits NLT 070800Z, stabilizing the immediate crisis by 071200Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The failure to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK C2 at 070500Z results in ineffective or delayed contingency fire support. RF utilizes the Buk-M3 AD void and Vostok Group tactical ISR to achieve accurate mass fires against the dispersed reserve columns (070545Z - 070700Z). The 37th GMRB exploits the resulting operational paralysis, achieving a deep breakthrough (10-15 km), isolating and encircling forward UAF battalions.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus is immediate force protection and synchronized kinetic response in the critical T-30 to T+60 minute window.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Contingency - URGENT): CONFIRM ACTIVE FIRE MISSION on pre-planned contingency targets (Dense Smoke/Artillery Barrages) covering reserve routes NLT 070545Z. This kinetic cover is mandatory to screen the vulnerable BRAVO-BLOCK reserve from imminent RF fires.
   • Action B (Fires BDA & Attrition): Decision Point 070545Z. If BDA against 37th GMRB C2/ISR is inconclusive (Gap P2), assume full enemy capability and REDIRECT ALL AVAILABLE DEEP FIRES (including high-value munitions) to maximize attrition on the RF 37th GMRB main assault elements at the Line of Departure (LD) prior to 070600Z, exploiting the Buk-M3 AD void.
   • Action C (EW Counter-Mining): MAINTAIN EW PRIORITY. Bukovel units must actively jam all suspected "Mangas" and RF tactical UAS frequencies along the BRAVO-BLOCK corridor until 070700Z, overriding all other EW requirements.

2. AIR DEFENSE AND AIR OPERATIONS (J3/J7):

   • Action A (UAS Interdiction): Allocate SHORAD assets to the Dnipropetrovsk axis to intercept reported inbound RF drones (05:48Z), protecting logistical chokepoints and the reserve movement area.
   • Action B (Deep Strike Exploitation): Leverage the confirmed Buk-M3 AD void to launch immediate, high-tempo deep strike missions targeting RF 37th GMRB staging areas, command posts, or logistics columns NLT 070600Z.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2):

   • Action A (Counter-Isolation Narrative - IMMEDIATE): NCA must issue a high-level statement NLT 070630Z that amplifies the U.S. commitment (Pentagon autonomous systems study, 05:53Z) and frames the China/Russia drills as an expected, predictable propaganda display, directly countering the RF political fragmentation narrative.
   • Action B (Domestic Morale): Immediately publish and amplify official operational successes (RF losses) alongside the positive news of continued Western technical partnership.

//END OF REPORT//