Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS

TIME: 070530Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: T-30 MINUTE ALERT // MDCOA EXECUTION IMMINENT // C2 CONTINGENCY ENGAGED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is hyper-critical, with kinetic initiation (MLD) anticipated in T-30 minutes.

• Stepnohorsk Axis: RF 37th GMRB is confirmed in the final pre-assault posture. UAF Phase Line ALPHA defenses are fixed.
• Flank Pressure: Artillery strikes confirming activity in Polohivskyi District (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, 05:15Z) indicate continued RF shaping operations, supporting the MDCOA hypothesis that the 38th GMRB is preparing its flanking role from the Huliaipole area.
• Rear Area Disruption: The RF deep strike capability remains high (Kremenchuk confirmed hit by Kinzhal/Geran-2, 05:30Z).

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Clear, cold conditions persist, favoring offensive ISR and kinetic maneuver.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Fully synchronized for the MLD NLT 070600Z. RF AD C2 is under significant stress (SAR score 42.26) but compensates through centralized AD management. UAF: Frontline units maintain a defensive hold. The dispersed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains the operational center of gravity. The 070500Z critical decision point (Reserve C2 check) has passed without confirmed positive communication (INTEL GAP P1). The operational assumption must shift to MDCOA engagement.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains fixed: Operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (T-30), forcing UAF to commit a disorganized reserve, leading to operational encirclement.

• Strike Capacity: RF retains high-value, deep strike precision capability using advanced assets (Kinzhal/Geran-2 confirmed in Kremenchuk strike). This capacity will be leveraged to interdict UAF reserve movement or C2 nodes immediately upon MLD initiation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Air Defense Response: Activity surrounding the 18th Guards AD Regiment HQ is at a critical level (SAR Score 42.26). This confirms RF C2 is actively attempting to reorganize and compensate for the confirmed loss of the Buk-M3 system, potentially by shifting mobile AD assets or integrating EW protection to cover the MLD approach lanes. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF is accelerating the synchronization of deep strikes with tactical information operations: The immediate public confirmation of the Kremenchuk strike by RF media (05:30Z) is designed to amplify fear and stress the UAF rear area resources just before the Stepnohorsk assault.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strikes (Rostov LĒP, Ryazan NPZ) continue to pressure RF logistics, but the effect is delayed (T+48h fuel crisis). The immediate operational effect is the Fastiv rail hub disruption (previous report), which critically constrains UAF logistics throughput for the Southern Front.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust at the strategic level, successfully synchronizing strategic fires (Kremenchuk) with psychological objectives. However, C2 effectiveness at the tactical AD level is confirmed strained (SAR 42.26), creating an exploitation window for UAF CAS/deep fires against the 37th GMRB assembly area. (Confidence: MEDIUM/HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL DEFENSIVE HOLD // RESERVE: ASSUME MDCOA ENGAGED. BRAVO-BLOCK is in the most dangerous phase. Without confirmed Code BLACK success, the reserve is presumed compromised or significantly delayed/attrited by RF EW/ISR and "Mangas" aerial mining.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: GSOU reporting claims elimination of 1080 RF personnel and 33 artillery systems over the past 24 hours (05:03Z). This is a vital metric for maintaining domestic morale and justifying continued resistance.
• Setback: Confirmed civilian casualty in Polohivskyi District reinforces the strain on civilian protection efforts while forces prepare for the MLD. The lack of C2 confirmation for BRAVO-BLOCK (Gap P1) is an operational setback.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, concentrated EW support (Bukovel) must be dedicated to the identified reserve routes to counteract the "Mangas" threat, mitigating the consequences of a possible C2 breach. CONSTRAINT: The commitment of EW/ISR assets to protecting the reserve diverts them from direct support of the frontline defenses at Phase Line ALPHA.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is dominated by RF attempts to induce strategic paralysis and diplomatic disagreement prior to the MLD launch.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Strategic Coercion: RF media is amplifying a statement attributed to Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) suggesting the fall of Pokrovsk would mean "the war is lost" (05:31Z). This is a decontextualized, high-leverage disinformation piece aimed squarely at the US/Ukraine diplomatic nexus to generate doubt about US continued support and encourage pre-emptive peace pressure. (Confidence: HIGH - Supported by Dempster-Shafer analysis)
2. Strike Justification: RF messaging directly attributes the Kremenchuk strike to high-precision weapons (Kinzhal/Geran-2), justifying the damage while underscoring RF military prowess just before the ground assault.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF must immediately leverage the published high RF casualty figures (1080 personnel, 33 artillery) to counter the negative psychological impact of the Kremenchuk strike and the RF diplomatic coercion narratives.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF information campaign targeting diplomatic consensus (Pokrovsk narrative) is highly dangerous. It requires immediate, coordinated refusal and counter-narrative from Kyiv and Washington to prevent diplomatic paralysis during the kinetic phase of the MLD.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The current operational posture mandates planning based on the assumption of MDCOA engagement.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Decreased due to C2 check uncertainty) RF 37th GMRB MLD launches 070600Z. RF ISR/EW detects portions of BRAVO-BLOCK but cannot target effectively due to residual confusion/UAF deep strike noise and strong UAF EW support. RF achieves a shallow 5 km tactical penetration. BRAVO-BLOCK is delayed by "Mangas" attrition but commits NLT 070800Z, stabilizing the line by 071200Z after heavy UAF losses.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Increased due to lack of Code BLACK confirmation) The 070500Z C2 check failed due to RF EW/SIGINT exploitation. RF utilizes targeted air/artillery strikes (using the Buk-M3 void for maximum effect) against BRAVO-BLOCK assembly and choke points between 070530Z and 070700Z. The 37th GMRB exploits the resulting UAF C2 collapse, achieving an operational breakthrough of 10-15 km, isolating forward UAF battalions.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The core objective is to execute the MDCOA C2 Failure Contingency Plan immediately, focusing all efforts on reserve protection and front-line attrition before 070600Z.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Contingency - URGENT): Since Code BLACK C2 confirmation failed the 070500Z check, IMMEDIATELY EXECUTE pre-planned contingency fires (Dense Smoke/Artillery Barrages) on confirmed/suspected assembly areas and key movement bottlenecks along the reserve routes NLT 070545Z. This kinetic cover is required to confuse RF ISR/targeting and protect the reserve during the critical T-30 window.
   • Action B (Fires BDA & Attrition): Decision Point 070530Z. If BDA against 37th GMRB C2/ISR is not confirmed by NLT 070545Z (assume C2 is functional), REDIRECT ALL AVAILABLE DEEP FIRES (including limited use of high-value munitions) to Phase Line ALPHA to maximize attrition on the RF 37th GMRB ground assault elements during the 070600Z-070800Z kinetic shock window.
   • Action C (EW Counter-Mining): MANDATORY EW INTEGRATION. Ensure Bukovel EW units are deployed and actively jamming all suspected "Mangas" frequency bands ahead of the dispersed BRAVO-BLOCK vanguard. EW assets must prioritize reserve protection over frontline support until 070700Z.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-PSYOP PRIORITY.

   • Action A (Counter-Isolation/Pokrovsk Narrative - IMMEDIATE): NCA/MoD, in coordination with US diplomatic channels, must issue a high-level, synchronized refusal NLT 070600Z (before the MLD launch is widely reported) directly addressing the "Pokrovsk/War is Lost" narrative, framing it as blatant RF disinformation designed to cover their operational failures (Ryazan/Rostov LĒP).
   • Action B (Morale Amplification): Immediately amplify the official GSOU figures (1080 RF losses, 33 artillery) through domestic and international channels to counter the psychological impact of the Kremenchuk strike.

3. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Fastiv Bypass): Confirm that all Class V/VII shipments have been fully diverted to the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro route and that the logistics chain is aware of the T-30 kinetic launch and possible road closures near Stepnohorsk.

//END OF REPORT//