Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS

TIME: 070500Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: T-60 MINUTE ALERT // RESERVE C2 DECISION POINT // COGNITIVE PRE-EMPTION STAGE

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is characterized by acute spatial and temporal compression, centered on the Stepnohorsk breach and the dispersal corridor of the UAF reserve.

• Stepnohorsk Axis: RF 37th GMRB is confirmed in final staging for the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD), scheduled for NLT 070600Z (T-60 minutes). UAF Phase Line ALPHA defenses are fixed and prepared for kinetic contact.
• Strategic Depth Targets (Blue): Confirmed UAF deep strikes against Russian Federation rear areas are achieving tactical effect. Damage confirmed to a high-voltage power transmission tower (LĒP) in Rostov Oblast (04:43Z), supporting the hypothesis of increasing logistical and C2 friction in the RF depth.
• Strategic Depth Targets (Red): RF executed a successful mass strike (missile/drone) against Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast (04:51Z), damaging critical infrastructure (power, water, heat). This strike is timed to maximize disruption and psychological effect on UAF rear area stabilization immediately prior to the MLD.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. High ground visibility favors offensive maneuver, precision targeting, and counter-battery fire. No weather constraints limit air or ISR operations.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Fully synchronized for MLD initiation. The kinetic assault is being covered by a simultaneous, highly coordinated strategic Information Operation (IO) campaign (see Section 4). UAF: Frontline units maintain a defensive hold. The dispersed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains the operational center of gravity. The critical Decision Point (DP) for the Reserve C2 check (070500Z) is current.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is fixed: Achieve rapid operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 070600Z, forcing UAF to commit a disorganized reserve, leading to operational encirclement (MDCOA).

• Firepower/Strike Capability: RF maintains the capability to execute high-volume, precision infrastructure strikes (Kremenchuk confirmed). This stresses UAF damage control and resource allocation away from the main axis. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Air Defense Capacity: RF claims of intercepting 77 UAVs (04:54Z) indicates a layered and centralized defense effort across the RF strategic depth, designed to mitigate the effects of UAF long-range strike campaigns. Despite this attrition, UAF strikes (Rostov LĒP, Lipetsk alert) continue to achieve tactical penetration. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is the increased synchronization of IO with kinetic activity:

1. Pre-Kinetic Coercion: RF officially terminated defense cooperation agreements with Canada, France, and Portugal (04:38Z). This move is designed to reinforce the 'EU Dissolution'/'Abandonment' narrative, weakening the diplomatic position of Kyiv just before the MLD launch. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Psychological Warfare: RF propaganda is escalating extreme demoralization narratives, focusing on the potential "extinction" of the Ukrainian nation (05:03Z), specifically timed to coincide with MLD initiation. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strikes are succeeding in creating friction. Damage to the LĒP in Rostov Oblast impacts power supply to military facilities, general economic activity, and logistics hubs in a key border region. This exacerbates the T+48h fuel crisis caused by earlier strikes. (Confidence: MEDIUM/HIGH)

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective for the MLD execution. High-level synchronization between kinetic operations (Kremenchuk strike) and strategic IO reinforces the assessment that the RF C2 structure is operating cohesively at the strategic-operational level. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL DEFENSIVE HOLD // RESERVE: DECISION POINT. The UAF reserve, BRAVO-BLOCK, is at its most vulnerable phase—dispersed and reliant on absolute EMCON adherence and the immediate security of its Collection Points (CPs). The operational success of the next 12 hours is tied to the confirmation of the 070500Z C2 check.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Sustained deep strike capacity confirmed and effective (Rostov LĒP damage). This is the key lever currently forcing RF resource diversion.
• Setback: The successful RF strike on Kremenchuk creates an immediate operational challenge for civil stability and rear-area resource protection, demanding internal focus immediately before the main assault.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Confirmation of secure BRAVO-BLOCK C2 integrity and EMCON adherence now (070500Z). CONSTRAINT: Resources are stretched between protecting reserves from "Mangas" aerial mining and mitigating the domestic impact of the Kremenchuk strike.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO is achieving peak synchronization with kinetic operations (T-60).

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Strategic Isolation (The 'Diplomatic Trap'): Termination of defense cooperation agreements is leveraged to imply irreversible geopolitical rupture, intending to dissuade NATO rapid response in the event of an operational breakthrough. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Internal Coercion: RF messages detailing punishment for water access in occupied Donbas serve as psychological pressure on civilians and target the domestic legitimacy of continued resistance.
3. High-Intensity Demoralization: Extreme narratives about the "demise" of the Ukrainian nation aim to induce strategic paralysis among leadership and demoralize the general population before the MLD.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is challenged by the dual stressors of the Kremenchuk infrastructure damage and the concentrated RF psychological warfare. Visible success in the deep battle (e.g., Rostov LĒP) must be immediately amplified to counter the effect of the infrastructure strikes.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The failure to decisively counter the RF strategic isolation narratives (e.g., "Peace Trap," diplomatic termination of pacts) before 070600Z risks creating an adverse political environment that could delay or constrain allied post-MLD resupply decisions.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The critical window for decision-making is the next 60 minutes.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MLD launches NLT 070600Z, achieving a tactical penetration of 5-7 km against Phase Line ALPHA. RF ISR detects the fragmented BRAVO-BLOCK dispersal, but coordinated, concentrated fires are delayed by residual confusion from UAF deep strikes and the necessity to manage RF AD gaps. BRAVO-BLOCK completes re-aggregation by 070800Z, allowing UAF to commit to a costly but successful stabilization operation by 071200Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL/EXISTENTIAL) Failure to execute the 070500Z C2 check successfully indicates an EW/SIGINT breach. RF exploits this failure, targeting a critical bottleneck along the reserve routes with concentrated KAB/Air strikes between 070500Z and 070700Z, neutralizing over 50% of the BRAVO-BLOCK main combat elements. Simultaneously, the 37th GMRB bypasses Phase Line ALPHA, achieving a catastrophic 10-15 km operational breakthrough and severing the supply line to forward UAF battalions.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is safeguarding the operational reserve during the MLD kinetic launch phase.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Contingency - URGENT): IMMEDIATELY EXECUTE the 070500Z SATCOM Code BLACK burst transmission check. If the report is negative or delayed beyond 070510Z, assume the MDCOA is engaged. Immediately shift contingency fires (see Action B) to high-density areas along confirmed reserve routes to provide kinetic cover and confuse RF ISR.
   • Action B (Fires BDA & Attrition): Decision Point NLT 070530Z. If BDA against 37th GMRB C2/ISR assets remains unconfirmed (assume negative), IMMEDIATELY REDIRECT all planned deep fires to Phase Line ALPHA (frontline defensive fires) to maximize attrition on the RF main effort (37th GMRB) during the 070600Z-070800Z kinetic shock window.
   • Action C (EW Counter-Mining): Ensure Bukovel EW units are actively jamming the "Mangas" frequency bands ahead of the dispersed BRAVO-BLOCK vanguard. EW support is the most crucial protective measure against the MDCOA scenario.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-PSYOP PRIORITY.

   • Action A (Counter-Isolation Narrative - IMMEDIATE): Exploit the confirmed damage to the Rostov LĒP and the Lipetsk air danger alert. NCA/MoD must issue a statement NLT 070515Z emphasizing that UAF deep strike capability is intact and successfully disrupting RF operations, directly countering the RF psychological narrative of strategic collapse and diplomatic abandonment.
   • Action B (Civil Stability): Prioritize reporting and assistance for the Kremenchuk population. Frame the Kremenchuk strike as a desperate, terrorist act by RF in response to their deep logistical failures (Ryazan, Rostov LĒP).

3. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Reserve Readiness Check): Confirm immediate readiness of forward medical and repair units to receive casualties/damaged equipment from BRAVO-BLOCK upon re-aggregation NLT 070700Z, acknowledging units may arrive piecemeal and require immediate triage.

//END OF REPORT//