Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STEPNOHORSK AXIS

TIME: 070445Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CRITICAL PHASE // FRAGMENTED RESERVE VULNERABILITY // PEAK RF IO COERCION

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational axis remains Stepnohorsk. The estimated time to RF Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) launch is T-1h 15m (NLT 070600Z).

• Stepnohorsk Axis: RF 37th GMRB is in the final phase of assault staging. UAF frontline defenses (Phase Line ALPHA) are maintaining integrity but are highly vulnerable to operational breakthrough due to the reserve status.
• Reserve Corridor: BRAVO-BLOCK remains in the dispersal/fragmentation phase, having executed contingency plans following the Fastiv logistical interdiction and the threat of aerial mining. This force is geographically dispersed and highly vulnerable to concentrated RF fires/ISR.
• Deep Battle: UAF deep strike tempo is sustained. RF claims 77 intercepted UAVs overnight (070414Z), confirming a large-scale UAF strike wave targeting RF rear areas. A subsequent official air danger warning issued in Lipetsk Oblast (070424Z) confirms penetration and ongoing UAF operations against strategic depth targets, likely logistical or industrial infrastructure. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. Low cloud cover is not limiting RF fixed-wing or strategic ISR capability. Ground visibility is high, favoring both RF offensive maneuvers and UAF counter-battery fire, provided BDA is timely.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Fully synchronized for MLD. C2 is utilizing the political/cognitive domain aggressively to coincide with the kinetic launch. Confirmation of continued use of the Chernihiv UAV diversion to fix UAF AD resources. UAF: Frontline units are at heightened alert. The primary operational control measure for BRAVO-BLOCK is strict EMCON (Emission Control) until re-aggregation at designated Collection Points (CPs).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is fixed: Achieve rapid operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (NLT 070600Z) while simultaneously inducing strategic paralysis in Kyiv and NATO capitals through synchronized Information Operations (IO).

• Air Defense Capacity: Despite the loss of the Buk-M3 system in the previous reporting cycle, the RF claims of intercepting 77 UAVs (070414Z) indicate a robust, centralized air defense response in the strategic depth. However, the subsequent Lipetsk alert confirms that UAF deep strikes are still achieving tactical effect on specific targets. (Confidence: MEDIUM/HIGH)
• MLD Readiness: VDV elements are confirmed in final staging, with motivational IO suggesting high operational readiness and commitment to the initial breach. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No kinetic tactical changes have been observed in the last 30 minutes, confirming RF commitment to the pre-planned 070600Z timetable. The adaptation is entirely in the Information Domain (see Section 4), which is being used as a force multiplier for the physical assault.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are increasingly strained by UAF deep strikes (Ryazan, Uryupinsk, Rostov LĒP). The high volume of UAF drone attacks, despite partial interception, will exacerbate command and control friction and force logistical units to operate under greater duress. The long-term fuel crisis (T+48h) prediction remains valid. (Confidence: HIGH)

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective for the MLD execution. The coordinated timing of the "Peace Trap" IO (Kellogg statement amplification, 070427Z) simultaneous with final MLD staging demonstrates high-level strategic synchronization. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: DEFENSIVE HOLDING / RESERVE: CRITICALLY VULNERABLE. UAF frontline defenses are prepared to absorb the initial MLD shock. The operational readiness is tied exclusively to the successful re-aggregation of BRAVO-BLOCK. If the dispersal is detected and targeted (MDCOA), UAF ability to counter-attack will be severely degraded NLT 0800Z.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Sustained deep strike capacity confirmed (Lipetsk alert). The high volume strike capability is successfully drawing RF AD attention away from the Stepnohorsk axis.
• Setback: The reserve force remains combat-ineffective for a coordinated maneuver until regrouping is complete (NLT 070700Z Minimum Combat Effectiveness).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIMARY REQUIREMENT: Secure Reserve Movement. Immediate priority must be placed on EW support integrated into the vanguard of BRAVO-BLOCK to neutralize the "Mangas" aerial mine threat. EMCON adherence is a non-negotiable constraint for all dispersing units.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO synchronization is at its apex, designed to maximize cognitive friction in Kyiv and NATO before the kinetic MLD launch.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Strategic Coercion ("Peace Trap"): RF amplification of statements suggesting the conflict is "close to resolution" (Kellogg, 070427Z) is intended to delay NATO decisions on immediate resupply/replenishment post-MLD, and to foster internal dissent against continued mobilization. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Internal Demoralization: The narrative concerning internal UAF executions at Kupyansk, though confirmed false, continues to circulate, aiming to fracture unit cohesion between Regular Forces and National Guard components during the assault.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is threatened by the dual pressure of intensifying shelling on infrastructure and the strategic IO narrative of diplomatic abandonment or negotiated defeat. Successful and visible UAF deep strikes (Lipetsk confirmed) are crucial to offset this narrative.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Failure to aggressively counter the "Peace Trap" narrative (Action B from previous report) before 070600Z will be interpreted by RF as a tactical diplomatic success, potentially slowing down critical post-MLD resupply commitments from allies.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The decisive window is the next hour, focusing on the vulnerability of the dispersed reserve.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MLD launches NLT 070600Z, achieving a penetration of 5-7 km against Phase Line ALPHA. RF ISR detects the fragmented BRAVO-BLOCK but cannot immediately coordinate a concentrated air/missile strike against the dispersed elements due to residual confusion and C2 degradation from the earlier UAF deep strikes (070400Z BDA). BRAVO-BLOCK achieves re-aggregation by 070800Z, allowing UAF to commit to a costly but successful stabilization operation by 071200Z.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL/EXISTENTIAL) RF successfully utilizes high-fidelity ISR (likely EW/SIGINT exploitation of weak EMCON adherence or undetected deep penetration UAS) to identify a critical bottleneck along a key contingency route (MCLC lead failure). Concentrated KAB/Air strikes target and successfully destroy or immobilize over 50% of the BRAVO-BLOCK main combat elements between 070500Z and 070700Z. Simultaneously, the 37th GMRB bypasses Phase Line ALPHA, achieving a catastrophic 10-15 km operational breakthrough, threatening to sever the supply line to the frontline UAF battalions.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is the secure passage and re-aggregation of BRAVO-BLOCK under strict EMCON while neutralizing RF cognitive warfare attempts before the MLD kinetic launch.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Fires BDA & Contingency): Decision Point NLT 070450Z. If BDA against 37th GMRB C2/ISR assets is negative, IMMEDIATELY REDIRECT all planned deep fires to Phase Line ALPHA (frontline defensive fires) to maximize attrition on the RF main effort during the 070600Z-070800Z kinetic shock window.
   • Action B (Reserve C2 Protection - CRITICAL): Reinforce the order to MAINTAIN ABSOLUTE EMCON until the designated 070500Z SATCOM burst window. Any non-secure transmission before this window must be treated as a security breach risking operational encirclement (MDCOA). EW assets must be actively jamming the "Mangas" frequency bands ahead of the reserve column.
   • Action C (Northern Fixation): Reiterate the standing order: DO NOT divert AD assets from the Stepnohorsk primary axis to address the Chernihiv UAV diversion or deep area strikes (e.g., Lipetsk). Accept the tactical risk in the rear to protect the operational reserve.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-PSYOP PRIORITY.

   • Action A (Internal Rebuttal - EXTREME URGENCY): The Ministry of Defense must issue a high-level, professional, and aggressive counter-statement NLT 070445Z to publicly refute the Kupyansk execution claim. The message must emphasize unit loyalty and frame the claim as clear RF desperation timed precisely to coincide with the MLD failure.
   • Action B (Diplomatic Counter-Coercion): Immediately launch the coordinated allied condemnation statement to neutralize the "Peace Trap" (Kellogg/TASS amplification) narrative before 070600Z, asserting unwavering NCA commitment to defense and future operations.

3. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Reserve Sustainment Check): Confirm the readiness and security of all Class III (Fuel) and Class V (Ammunition) forward caches at the designated BRAVO-BLOCK Collection Points, acknowledging the dispersed units may have unexpectedly high consumption rates due to contingency route maneuvers.

//END OF REPORT//