Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL TIMELINE EXECUTION

TIME: 070407Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: EXECUTION OF CONTINGENCY PLANS (BRAVO-BLOCK) // MLD T-113 MINUTES // RF IO INTENSIFICATION

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational focus remains the Stepnohorsk Axis. The time to RF Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) launch is critically short ($\approx$ T-113 minutes).

• Stepnohorsk Axis: RF 37th GMRB is confirmed to be executing final preparations for the MLD NLT 070600Z.
• Reserve Corridor: The primary UAF counter-attack reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) is currently executing contingency dispersal and fragmentation, moving from its previous assembly areas toward designated collection points. This is the most volatile operational phase.
• Deep Battle: UAF maintained aggressive deep strike tempo, confirmed by damage to infrastructure (LĒP) in Rostov Oblast (Kamensk). This offsets some of the logistical pressure incurred by the Fastiv rail hub loss.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. The weather continues to maximize the threat from RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, increasing the risk to the newly fragmented BRAVO-BLOCK elements. (Confidence: HIGH)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF assault elements (including VDV, per motivational IO) are in final staging. RF Command and Control (C2) is highly synchronized, coupling kinetic preparation with intense IO across all domains. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK is assumed to be dispersed per the contingency plan, having missed the 070330Z resolution deadline. The primary task is shifting from movement execution to secure re-aggregation and fires coordination for the impending assault. The 070400Z pre-emptive fires window is now passed, and execution status is paramount.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent remains fixed: Achieve operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (070600Z) while simultaneously inducing UAF and Western political paralysis through strategic coercion.

• Assault Force Readiness: Motivational messages targeting VDV (Desantnaya Bratstvo) indicate high morale and readiness within the immediate assault echelon, suggesting the VDV elements are committed for the initial breach. (Confidence: MEDIUM/HIGH)
• Information Warfare Focus: RF is utilizing captured or simulated intelligence (TASS claim of intercepted radio traffic regarding executions at Kupyansk) to execute a specific, highly damaging psychological operation (PSYOP).
  • Intent: To destabilize UAF unit cohesion, fracture trust between National Guard and Regular Forces, and discourage local defensive stands by suggesting retreat equals execution. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF continues to employ multi-domain synchronization without significant tactical adaptation in the Stepnohorsk sector in the last 30 minutes, relying on the pre-planned MLD launch time. The Chernihiv UAV diversion remains active, fixing UAF AD assets away from the main axis.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are under increasing strain due to continued UAF deep strikes (Ryazan, Uryupinsk, and now Rostov LĒP). The LĒP damage in Rostov will primarily affect supporting infrastructure (rail networks, C2 relay stations) rather than kinetic strike capacity, sustaining the T+48h RF fuel crisis prediction. (Confidence: HIGH)

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly centralized and effective, demonstrated by the precise timing of the internal demoralization campaign (Kupyansk claim) simultaneous with the final MLD staging. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF frontline defenses are holding in expectation of the MLD. The operational readiness is defined by the status of the reserve: FRAGMENTED. The transition from assembly to secure dispersal routes is the highest risk phase. Readiness hinges on successful and timely re-aggregation NLT 0800Z.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Confirmed successful UAF deep strike against power transmission infrastructure in Rostov Oblast, demonstrating continued range and target selectivity.
• Setback: The need to execute contingency dispersal means the reserve force is temporarily combat ineffective for coordinated counter-attack operations until forces can regroup, increasing the vulnerability of frontline units between 070600Z and 0800Z.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The critical requirement is establishing secure communication with all BRAVO-BLOCK elements to confirm safe dispersal paths and designated collection points. Secure burst transmission (SATCOM only) must be prioritized to prevent RF SIGINT exploitation of the vulnerable fragmented formations.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment remains critical, with RF strategy focusing on collapsing resolve both domestically and internationally immediately before the MLD.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

1. Internal Attrition (Kupyansk Claim): The TASS claim about UAF internal executions is pure disinformation designed to induce panic and test unit loyalty during the assault. This requires an immediate, professional public rebuttal. (D-S Belief: Information Warfare: Disinformation - 0.456)
2. Civilian Coercion (NBU Data): RF is leveraging genuine security concerns (intensified shelling) and economic statistics (NBU emigration data) to demonstrate the efficacy of their attrition strategy and erode domestic resilience. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is under maximum stress due to prolonged infrastructure shelling and the coordinated narrative of diplomatic isolation. The Kupyansk narrative aims to introduce fear of internal security services (SBU/National Guard), compounding the effects of the emigration narrative.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The StratCom requirement (Action A from previous report – counter-coercion statement) remains critical. Failure to aggressively counter the Orbán/Kallas/TASS narratives before 070600Z will likely result in delayed NATO reaction and weakened commitment to post-MLD replenishment requirements.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The next 60 minutes are decisive for controlling the outcome of the MLD. The success of the contingency dispersal is the primary variable.

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MLD launches NLT 070600Z. RF ISR detects scattered, fragmented elements of BRAVO-BLOCK but fails to coordinate the concentrated KAB strike required for an attrition attack due to communication delays caused by targeting deep strike BDA (070400Z window). RF 37th GMRB achieves a tactical penetration of 5-7 km. UAF fragmentation successfully delays the full counter-attack until T+4 hours (1000Z), resulting in a costly but contained defensive operation.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL/EXISTENTIAL) RF successfully coordinates the VDV assault with concentrated fire support, bypassing the main UAF defensive line. Simultaneously, RF ISR/EW detects a critical choke point or road junction where fragmented BRAVO-BLOCK elements are re-aggregating, leading to a concentrated KAB/Aviation strike. The reserve is destroyed or rendered operationally irrelevant before 0800Z, allowing the 37th GMRB to achieve a catastrophic 10-15 km breakthrough and threaten operational encirclement by 1200Z.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The primary mission is to absorb the MLD kinetic impact while ensuring the fragmented reserve re-aggregates securely.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6):

   • Action A (Fires BDA & Augmentation): Immediately assess BDA for the 070400Z strike. If BDA is negative, REDIRECT pre-planned counter-attack fires to reinforce frontline unit defensive fires (Phase Line ALPHA) to maximize attrition during the initial RF push (070600Z-070800Z), buying time for BRAVO-BLOCK re-aggregation.
   • Action B (Reserve C2): All commanders must be ordered to maintain strict EMCON until reaching the confirmed collection point (CP). Utilize only secure burst SATCOM (Code BLACK) for status updates at 070500Z and 070700Z checkpoints. Prioritize secure movement over tactical coordination.
   • Action C (AD/Northern Threat): Maintain the standing order: DO NOT shift AD assets from the Stepnohorsk sector. The Chernihiv threat is confirmed as a fixing operation. Localize AD response only.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-PSYOP PRIORITY.

   • Action A (Internal Rebuttal - IMMEDIATE): The NCA/Ministry of Defense must issue a high-profile, immediate counter-statement NLT 070430Z specifically and aggressively refuting the TASS claim regarding executions at Kupyansk, framing it as blatant RF psychological desperation timed to fail the MLD. Emphasize unit loyalty and the integrity of UAF command.
   • Action B (Diplomatic Response): The joint condemnation statement regarding the coordinated EU coercion campaign (Orbán/Kallas) must be launched immediately, even if incomplete, to disrupt the RF cognitive objective before the 070600Z MLD.

3. LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINMENT (J4):

   • Action A (Reserve Sustainment): Logistics must immediately confirm the readiness of Class III (Fuel) and Class V (Ammunition) caches at the BRAVO-BLOCK collection points, assuming dispersed elements arrive low on fuel/ammo due to fragmented movement.

//END OF REPORT//