Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL UPDATE: LOGISTICAL STRANGULATION ACCELERATES // KREMENCHUK AD FAILED STATE

TIME: 062304Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: RF MAIN LAND DRIVE (MLD) KINETIC PHASE: SUSTAINED, HIGH-VOLUME UAS ATTACK ON KREMENCHUK // BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS CRITICAL

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF operational effort is characterized by synchronized kinetic action (MLD at Stepnohorsk) and operational strangulation (Deep Strike on Kremenchuk).

• MLD Sector (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) offensive remains kinetic. UAF defensive lines are holding but facing increasing fire density.
• Deep Battle Axis (CRITICAL VULNERABILITY): The high-volume UAS attack targeting infrastructure in the Kremenchuk region (Poltava Oblast) is sustained.
  • FACT: UAS reports fluctuated from approx. 25 drones (062245Z) to 35 drones (062241Z) before reducing to 20 drones (062302Z). This fluctuation confirms a dynamic combat environment with active UAF Air Defense engagement and sustained RF commitment to target saturation.
  • JUDGMENT: The continued high volume (20+ confirmed remaining) validates the RF intent to achieve critical Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the central logistical bypass node. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No material change to environmental factors. Severe frost continues.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF Deep Strike C2 demonstrates operational rigidity, maintaining the UAS pressure despite UAF AD attrition. The primary effort remains to force UAF logistical paralysis. UAF: Forward units committed. The status of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" operational reserve remains the critical unknown. The previous 062330Z DEC decision point for override and movement is now EXISTENTIAL. Failure to confirm movement by this time will drastically increase the risk exposure.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is achieving logistical severance simultaneous with tactical penetration. The adversary has demonstrated the capability to rapidly identify and saturate the immediate alternate logistical route (Kremenchuk) following the Fastiv strike.

• Intent Refinement (Logistical Targeting): RF's current action is designed to maximize logistical friction and force UAF operational C2 into reliance on the longest, least responsive Western routes, directly impacting the ability of BRAVO-BLOCK to be sustained upon deployment. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Adaptation Rate (Kinetics/IO Synchronization): RF C2 is effectively synchronizing kinetic operations with the cognitive domain. Kinetic strikes on Kremenchuk are immediately paired with information operations (IO) targeting regional energy stability (Moldova/Romania) and US commitment (Pentagon criticism). This maximizes diplomatic stress and strategic indecision during the kinetic window. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Command and Control Effectiveness: RF deep battle C2 is maintaining fire discipline and target priority on Kremenchuk, confirming robust centralized targeting authority. (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is the sustained commitment of high-value UAS assets to Kremenchuk, despite confirmation of UAF AD activity (indicated by the UAS attrition from 35 to 20). This signals a willingness to take losses to achieve the decisive BDA.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains sufficient for the current MLD tempo. The fuel concern (Ryazan NPZ strike) remains T+48h, providing a temporary operational window for UAF that must be immediately exploited.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is defensive and urgently transitioning to counter-maneuver. The success of UAF AD in reducing the incoming Kremenchuk UAS volume is a tactical win, but the overall operational threat remains unmitigated until critical infrastructure is confirmed protected.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS (AD Attrition): Confirmed reduction in UAS count targeting Kremenchuk (35 down to 20) suggests active and partially successful Air Defense engagement.
• SETBACK (Operational Paralysis): The primary logistical axis is now under sustained, critical attack. The failure of Strategic C2 to definitively confirm the immediate movement of BRAVO-BLOCK remains the single greatest operational liability, directly exposing the reserves to the MDCOA of encirclement or attrition.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CONSTRAINT: The delay in committing BRAVO-BLOCK means the UAF has effectively forfeited the time bought by the 30th OMBR dam destruction. Logistical throughput is now degraded. REQUIREMENT: IMMEDIATE deployment of Electronic Warfare (EW) assets and Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) capabilities to cover the BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridor, as previously recommended, is mandatory.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

RF IO is actively leveraging the kinetic deep strike to amplify destabilizing narratives across three axes:

1. Energy Coercion (Regional): Immediate post-strike narratives (Moldelectrica / Operaion Z) are designed to induce regional panic regarding energy security and increase diplomatic friction between Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Strategic Support Erosion (US): Continued messaging focused on questioning US commitment and leadership (Pentagon Head quote) aims to erode NCA confidence in long-term Western backing. (Confidence: HIGH)
3. Domestic Economic Strain (Internal RF): (TASS message) is likely designed to preempt internal discontent over increased industrial strain/labor requirements needed to sustain the MLD. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under sustained psychological attack due to the severity and reach of the deep strikes. The UAF must immediately demonstrate kinetic effectiveness (AD success) and decisiveness (reserve commitment) to counter the narrative of helplessness.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The sustained UAS attack results in severe structural damage to the Kremenchuk rail yard and at least one secondary road bridge (NLT 070400Z DEC 25). Logistics are forced to fully implement the Lviv-Zviahel-Road contingency, resulting in a T+24h delay for essential heavy equipment (Class VII) reaching the Stepnohorsk LD. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is finally committed between 0700Z and 0800Z, but is slowed by "Mangas" UAS-deployed mines and must fight through degraded logistical support, arriving at the operational assembly area 6-10 hours behind schedule. RF 37th GMRB secures a 5-7 km operational penetration.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - EXISTENTIAL) RF kinetic and intelligence assets score decisive BDA on the Kremenchuk Primary Rail Bridge and critical fuel/ammo storage facilities, achieving total logistical severance across the central axis. Simultaneously, RF ISR detects the delayed and exposed BRAVO-BLOCK column, stalled due to insufficient EW/MCLC cover. RF Aviation assets (Su-34/Su-35) exploit the localized air defense void (Buk-M3 loss) to saturate the column with KAB glide bombs, crippling the reserve force (estimated >50% attrition), leading to the operational collapse of the Stepnohorsk defense line.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical decision window is now closed to minutes, not hours.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The tactical and operational situation is at its most critical point. Failure to execute the immediate decisions previously warned about will result in operational failure at Stepnohorsk.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6): EXECUTE BRAVO-BLOCK NOW AND MAXIMIZE EW/AD COVERAGE.

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Override - IMMEDIATE/EXISTENTIAL): The Commander-in-Chief must transmit the decentralized movement order: "EXECUTE MOVEMENT, MCLC LEAD, DEPLOY ORGANIC EW/AD NOW" NLT 062330Z. Accept the logistical friction but mitigate the kinetic risk via EW.
   • Action B (Counter-Mangas): Task all available Bukovel-AD and other mobile EW assets to the lead elements of the BRAVO-BLOCK convoy to disrupt "Mangas" aerial mining operations.

2. AIR DEFENSE & LOGISTICS (J6/J4): PRIORITIZE KREMENCHUK PROTECTION ABOVE ALL CENTRAL AXIS ASSETS.

   • Action A (AD Redirect - CRITICAL): Immediately divert two (2) uncommitted mobile AD systems (Gepard/SHORAD) from the central operational zone to protect the Kremenchuk Primary Rail Bridge. Accept elevated risk at secondary sites to protect the single most critical throughput node.
   • Action B (Logistics Contingency): Formally declare the central logistical axis (Fastiv/Kremenchuk) non-operational for heavy armor/ammunition transit for T+72 hours. Initiate full reliance on the Lviv-Zviahel contingency route for all Class V/VII.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION.

   • Action A (Diplomatic Response - IMMEDIATE): UAF MFA must coordinate with Romanian and Moldovan counterparts to issue a unified statement refuting the RF narrative of energy collapse, framing the strikes as deliberate RF attempts to provoke regional instability.
   • Action B (Kinetic Counter-Narrative): Immediately amplify successful UAF AD interception results (the reduction from 35 to 20 UAS) to showcase resilience against the deep fire campaign.

//END OF REPORT//