Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - UPDATE: RF LOGISTICAL STRANGULATION AND MLCOA ACCELERATION

TIME: 062245Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: RF MAIN LAND DRIVE (MLD) KINETIC PHASE: ADVERSARY LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS EXPANDS TO KREMENCHUK // URGENT RESERVE COMMITMENT REQUIRED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) remains kinetically focused on operational penetration in the Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) sector, supported by systematic deep strike operations targeting strategic logistical centers.

• MLD Sector (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) assault continues to press UAF forward lines.
• Deep Battle Axes (CRITICAL EXPANSION): RF Deep Strike has expanded its synchronized effort across multiple oblasts, validating the strategy of logistical paralysis:
  • Central Axis (Poltava/Kremenchuk): Confirmed high-volume UAS attack underway (approx. 25 Shahed drones) targeting infrastructure in the Kremenchuk region (22:21Z). This sector is the critical logistical bypass node following the strike on Fastiv.
  • Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Odesa): UAS groups confirmed tracking NW over Southern Mykolaivshchyna (22:24Z), confirming the sustained threat to Black Sea ports and NATO supply throughput.
  • Key Terrain Shift (UAF SUCCESS): The 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade (30th OMBR) successful counter-mobility operation (dam destruction) has imposed a temporary kinetic delay (estimated 6-12 hours) on the RF flanking element but has not disrupted the RF Deep Battle synchronization.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Severe frost continues to impact ground mobility and troop sustainment across the front. No significant change affecting immediate kinetics.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF 37th GMRB committed. RF Deep Strike UAS/Fires C2 demonstrates highly effective synchronization, immediately shifting fire resources to the logical next logistical target (Kremenchuk) after the previous Fastiv strike. UAF: Forward units engaged in delaying action. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: The "BRAVO-BLOCK" operational reserve status remains unconfirmed. The window bought by the 30th OMBR is rapidly closing due to the accelerated RF deep fire campaign.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is to execute a synchronized operational paralysis and tactical breakthrough. The latest UAS wave confirms RF capability and HIGH intent to completely isolate the Stepnohorsk sector from heavy logistical reinforcement.

• Intent Refinement (Logistical Strangulation): The high-volume, simultaneous strike on Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) is a decisive maneuver by RF Deep Battle assets. This is calculated to exploit the UAF rapid response at Fastiv (mobile station deployment) by immediately targeting the alternative central rail/road intersection (Kremenchuk), thereby forcing reliance on severely degraded, longer western supply lines. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Adaptation Rate: RF C2 demonstrated an extremely rapid adaptation cycle (T+1 hour) by re-tasking high-value UAS assets to the Kremenchuk axis, validating their ability to monitor and counter UAF logistical improvisation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Command and Control Effectiveness: RF C2 synchronization across the kinetic and cognitive domains is exemplary. The MLD launch is being covered simultaneously by deep logistical strikes (Kremenchuk) and high-level hybrid operations (Orbán, India visit propaganda). (Confidence: HIGH)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary tactical change is the immediate, aggressive shift of RF deep strike focus from solely rail (Fastiv) to key regional transshipment and storage infrastructure (Kremenchuk). This confirms a doctrine of targeting resilience rather than singular nodes.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment is sufficient for current MLD kinetics. The UAF deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure remain a T+48h concern for the adversary, but do not influence the current operational tempo.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture remains defensive and adaptive, demonstrated by the 30th OMBR proactive counter-mobility success. Readiness is high, but the logistical foundation for sustained defense is now under direct, heavy assault from the deep battle.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS (TACTICAL/IO): The morale boost derived from the 30th OMBR action and the successful repatriation of seven children (22:17Z) provides critical psychological resilience amidst the deep fire attacks.
• SETBACK (OPERATIONAL/LOGISTICAL): Immediate and ongoing kinetic attack on the Kremenchuk logistical corridor. This represents a major escalation of the logistical strangulation effort following the Fastiv strike and directly threatens the throughput capacity for "BRAVO-BLOCK" and sustaining fire support units.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Constraint: Logistics are now severely constrained by RF kinetic action on both the primary (Fastiv) and immediate secondary (Kremenchuk) central supply routes. Requirement: IMMEDIATE reallocation of AD assets (e.g., Gepard, SHORAD) to defend Kremenchuk area infrastructure (refineries, power, rail/road bridges).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Hybrid Synchronization)

RF and aligned narratives are operating in direct synchronization with kinetic events to induce strategic decision paralysis and destabilization in NATO partners.

1. European Destabilization: Hungarian PM Orbán's statement (22:11Z) linking domestic elections to potential war risk serves the RF strategic goal of fragmenting the EU/NATO consensus and diverting attention from the MLD kinetic phase.
2. Projection of Strength: TASS (22:21Z) amplification of the India visit is designed to counter the narrative of Russian diplomatic isolation, timed to project geopolitical stability during the military offensive.
3. UAF Counter-Messaging: UAF maintains effective counter-IO, leveraging national holidays and humanitarian successes (child repatriation) to stabilize domestic morale against fear generated by deep strikes.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF morale is resilient but will be tested by the sustained, high-volume strikes on civilian infrastructure (Kremenchuk). This requires immediate, visible action to protect key assets.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The UAS attack on Kremenchuk successfully degrades the operational throughput of the logistical node by 20-40% (NLT 070400Z DEC 25). Strategic C2, recognizing the complete collapse of central supply routes, finally initiates the "BRAVO-BLOCK" movement (T+3h), relying on road transport and facing severe fuel constraints. The 37th GMRB exploits the UAF defensive friction caused by supply cuts and achieves a deeper operational penetration (up to 7-10 km NLT 070600Z DEC 25). RF deep strike continues pressure on Odesa/Mykolaiv axis, forcing the commitment of UAF AD assets away from the central MLD corridor.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - CATASTROPHIC) RF kinetic and intelligence assets achieve a total logistical block by scoring a catastrophic BDA on critical infrastructure (rail bridge, refinery storage) in Kremenchuk, paralyzing the central supply route indefinitely. Simultaneously, RF ISR and Mangas UAS assets, exploiting the delayed C2 decision, detect the exposed, stationary "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve column near the LD. RF aviation assets, supported by newly repositioned AD coverage, utilize glide bombs (KABs) and loitering munitions to inflict crippling attrition on the reserve force (estimated 40%+ loss of combat power), resulting in the collapse of the UAF operational defense at Stepnohorsk.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The priority has shifted from kinetic delay exploitation to logistical triage and immediate reserve commitment under fire.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

RF has successfully escalated the logistical threat. UAF must respond not just with defense, but with immediate, decisive maneuver and logistical triage.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6): COMMIT BRAVO-BLOCK IMMEDIATELY AND COVER WITH EW/AD.

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Override - IMMEDIATE/EXISTENTIAL): The Commander-in-Chief must transmit the decentralized movement order: "EXECUTE MOVEMENT, MCLC LEAD, DEPLOY ORGANIC EW/AD NOW" NLT 062330Z. Use the 30th OMBR delay to cover the movement, not wait for perfect conditions.
   • Action B (Route Clearance: Immediately task MCLC and EW assets to the suspected BRAVO-BLOCK route. Assign additional UAS/ISR coverage to detect Mangas ingress vectors.

2. AIR DEFENSE & LOGISTICS (J6/J4): PROTECT KREMENCHUK AND SHIFT LOGISTICS WEST.

   • Action A (AD Redirect - CRITICAL): Immediately divert all uncommitted mobile AD assets (including vehicle-mounted SHORAD and Gepard units) to the Kremenchuk area to protect the rail junction and oil storage facilities from follow-on UAS waves. Protect AD over Odesa/Mykolaiv remains critical but Kremenchuk is the immediate operational threat to maneuver.
   • Action B (Logistics Triage - URGENT): Implement full logistical contingency plan (Lviv-Zviahel) immediately. Assume zero heavy rail capacity east of Zviahel for 72 hours. Initiate large-scale deployment of heavy road transport assets to the Western Oblasts to move essential supplies (Class V/VII) to the Southern Front.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER DISRUPTION NARRATIVES.

   • Action A (Diplomatic Response - IMMEDIATE): Coordinate with NATO/EU partners (specifically Hungary's diplomatic channels) to issue a coordinated denial of the "war risk" narrative, framing it as blatant RF information warfare designed to aid the kinetic MLD.
   • Action B (Domestic Focus): Maintain focus on the UAF's operational resilience (30th OMBR success, children's return) to counter the psychological impact of the large-scale deep strikes.

//END OF REPORT//