Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - MLD CONFIRMED BREAKTHROUGH PHASE

TIME: 062145Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: RF MAIN LAND DRIVE (MLD) KINETIC PHASE: ADAPTIVE DEEP STRIKE PIVOT WESTWARD // EXISTENTIAL RESERVE STATUS

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational timeline confirms the kinetic phase of the Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). RF is leveraging multi-domain synchronization to induce systemic paralysis.

• MLD Sector (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) is committed across the Line of Departure (LD) following KAB saturation. Forward defense lines are engaged.
• Deep Battle Axis (Central/West): The UAS deep strike wave continues its pivot, threatening the strategic depth of Ukraine:
  • Poltava Axis (CONFIRMED THREAT): UAS vector confirmed from Sumy toward Poltava Oblast (21:24Z), threatening the energy/rail infrastructure vital for the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass route.
  • Western Axis (NEW THREAT): UAS confirmed in Vinnytsia Oblast, coursing toward Lypovets (21:07Z). This marks a deepening threat to the western logistical artery carrying NATO resupply.
• Fixing Effort (Seversk): Confirmed kinetic activity in the Seversk salient (21:17Z) indicates an RF fixing effort aimed at drawing UAF attention and resources away from the Stepnohorsk main effort.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Severe frost continues to impact logistics and troop sustainment. RF Information Operations (IO) are actively weaponizing energy infrastructure damage.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: 37th GMRB is pressing the assault. The RF deep strike execution is highly effective and adaptive. UAF: Forward UAF forces are engaged in high-attrition defensive fighting. The operational effectiveness of the overall defense plan is being undermined by the UNCONFIRMED status of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve movement, which should now be in the maneuver phase.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed as exploiting tactical penetration at Stepnohorsk while achieving systemic logistical disruption via multi-axis deep strikes.

• Deep Strike Adaptation (Confidence: HIGH): The confirmed UAS vectors (Poltava, Lypovets) demonstrate that RF operational intelligence quickly identifies and prosecutes alternative logistics nodes when primary targets (Fastiv) are struck. Intent is to interdict the entire UAF heavy-lift logistical spine.
• Anti-Armor Focus (Confidence: HIGH): RF IO is actively promoting the effectiveness of ZALA Lancet against Western armor (21:23Z). This is not random; it is designed to degrade the confidence of UAF mechanized units (Bradley, Stryker) preparing for the anticipated counter-attack.
• Fixing Power (Confidence: MEDIUM): The activity at Seversk is likely a brigade-level fixing engagement designed to prevent the redeployment of Northern/Eastern UAF reserves to the Zaporizhzhia axis.

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment is sufficient for immediate breakthrough operations. RF counter-mobility assets (Mangas UAS aerial mining and pre-positioned fires) remain the primary threat to UAF Class VII movement.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization between the kinetic (Stepnohorsk, Deep Battle) and cognitive (TASS, Colonelcassad) domains is highly effective and immediate. This synchronization is designed to paralyze UAF strategic C2 during the critical opening phase.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

The current UAF posture is defensive and reactive. Forward units at Stepnohorsk are fighting a delaying action. The non-confirmed movement of "BRAVO-BLOCK" has shifted the posture from "Active Defense" (relying on mechanized counter-attack) to "Delaying Defense" (trading space for time).

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (CRITICAL): Failure to confirm reserve movement initiation (D+0/H+0.75 past deadline). This paralysis is the central operational vulnerability.
• Success (INFORMATION COUNTER): UAF channels are rapidly deploying counter-IO, leveraging combat footage (Madyar's Birds) and patriotic content to maintain domestic morale and counter the immediate RF propaganda wave.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Constraint: Operational C2 inertia and the persistent threat of RF Mangas aerial mining along the reserve corridor. Requirement: Immediate need for mobile Air Defense (AD) assets to relocate and cover the newly threatened central and western logistical hubs (Poltava, Lypovets).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is operating at saturation levels, synchronized with kinetic activity:

1. Systemic Collapse Narrative: TASS amplifies the claim (attributed to Ukrenergo) that energy repair will take "weeks" (21:08Z). JUDGMENT: This is a calculated psychological operation (PSYOPS) aimed at maximizing domestic anxiety during the MLD.
2. Anti-Armor Deterrence: Promotion of Lancet success (21:23Z) is directed specifically at demoralizing mechanized UAF forces expected to lead the counter-attack.
3. Morale Degradation: Targeted RF claims of UAF celebrity casualties (21:29Z) aim to damage the public image and sacrifice narrative of UAF forces.
4. Strategic Diversion: TASS report on the Alaska earthquake (21:13Z) is a global diversionary tactic to shift international focus away from the Stepnohorsk breakthrough.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is under immediate psychological pressure from the MLD kinetic event coupled with the energy collapse narrative. UAF counter-IO (Madyar's Birds, 21:28Z) provides an immediate, localized counter-narrative, but requires sustained commitment to overcome the strategic messaging saturation.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The 37th GMRB MLD achieves initial operational success, penetrating 4-5 km NLT 070200Z DEC 25. The RF deep strike wave will successfully compromise the rail infrastructure near Poltava, further degrading the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass. Crucially, due to C2 inertia, the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve initiates movement too late (T+3h), is detected by RF ISR/Mangas, and suffers significant attrition in column formation from long-range fires, preventing an effective counter-attack NLT 071200Z DEC 25.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - EXISTENTIAL) RF successfully coordinates the 37th GMRB breakthrough with a deep, fast maneuver by the 38th GMRB (Vostok Group) past the Huliaipole flank, leading to the operational encirclement of the forward UAF defense lines. Simultaneously, one or more UAF strategic logistics/C2 hubs (e.g., Vasilkiv or a critical C2 node) are successfully neutralized by the ongoing UAS wave, causing a cascading failure in UAF defensive coordination and allowing the RF to consolidate control over Phase Line ALPHA and secure initial operational objectives.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical window for proactive strategic C2 action is effectively closed. Focus is now on tactical damage mitigation and reserve survivability.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The MLD is in the operational success phase for the RF. Immediate action must shift from prevention to mitigation, focusing on reserve survivability and the deep defense of logistics.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6): INITIATE DECENTRALIZED RESERVE MOVEMENT AND AD PROTECTION.

   • Action A (Reserve C2 Override - IMMEDIATE/EXISTENTIAL): The Commander-in-Chief must transmit a blanket, decentralized movement order to the MCLC/Bravo-Block lead commanders: "EXECUTE MOVEMENT, MCLC LEAD, DEPLOY ORGANIC EW/AD NOW." The reserves must accept risk and move, or they risk total destruction while stationary.
   • Action B (Counter-Mobility): Immediately flood the confirmed/suspected reserve transit corridors with dedicated Bukovel-AD EW systems to disrupt Mangas UAS uplinks. Prioritize the first 25 km of the reserve movement route.
   • Action C (Fire Support Maximation): Maximize saturation fires (MLRS, FPV, Artillery) on the 37th GMRB follow-on echelons (T+2h columns) rather than the immediate contact zone. Exploit the confirmed Buk-M3 AD void for high-risk, high-reward deep strike operations targeting RF field HQ.

2. AIR DEFENSE & LOGISTICS (J6/J4): PRIORITIZE WESTERN LOGISTICS DEFENSE.

   • Action A (AD Divert - CRITICAL): Due to the confirmed UAS pivot, divert ALL available uncommitted mobile AD/EW assets (Buk, Gepard, etc.) to defend the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro axis, prioritizing nodes in Poltava, Cherkasy, and especially the Lypovets (Vinnytsia) logistical corridor.
   • Action B (Logistics Continuity): Assume Poltava and Fastiv are non-viable heavy transit hubs for T+72 hours. Implement full logistical contingency plan utilizing road transport and western rail hubs exclusively for all Class V/VII resupply to the Southern Front.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER PARALYSIS NARRATIVE.

   • Action A (C2/Morale Statement - URGENT): Issue an immediate statement (NLT 062200Z) confirming aggressive RF action in the South and confirming that "critical mechanized reserves are engaged and moving to defeat the penetration." Utilize confirmed UAF tactical combat footage (Madyar's Birds) to provide visual counter-proof against RF claims of morale collapse.

//END OF REPORT//