Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - MLD CONFIRMATION TIME: 062105Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: RF MAIN LAND DRIVE (MLD) INITIATION CONFIRMED // UAS STRIKE WAVE PIVOTS WEST AND CENTRAL // EXISTENTIAL RESERVE STATUS

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational timeline has reached 2100Z 06 DEC 25. The Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) is judged to be active and kinetic.

• Stepnohorsk MLD Sector: Final kinetic preparatory fires (KABs) were confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 20:59Z, confirming the commencement of the ground assault phase by the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB).
• Deep Battle Axis (Kyiv/Central Region): The deep strike UAS wave has broadened and confirmed targets far from the initial anticipated envelope:
  1. Kyiv Axis: Confirmed drone vector toward Vasilkiv (20:35Z), a critical airbase and logistical hub southwest of Kyiv.
  2. Central Axis: Confirmed drone vector into Poltava Oblast from Sumy (20:44Z), targeting central rail/energy infrastructure critical for the long-haul bypass logistics (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro).
• Eastern Front (Localized Success): UAF forces (67th OMBr) have successfully cleared/recaptured the settlement of Tykhe (Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk axis, 20:59Z). This is a localized tactical success, demonstrating UAF engagement capability, but is peripheral to the MLD main effort.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Severe frost and widespread energy grid damage (confirmed RF IO messaging claims weeks for repair) continue to stress UAF sustainment.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: 37th GMRB is now committed across the Line of Departure (LD). The RF multi-domain synchronization is at peak execution. UAF: The status of the crucial "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve movement remains UNCONFIRMED following the 2015Z deadline failure. This is the single greatest risk to the operational defense plan.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed: Achieve rapid tactical penetration at Stepnohorsk while simultaneous, synchronized deep strikes induce systemic logistical and C2 paralysis.

• MLD Execution (Confidence: HIGH): Confirmed by KAB saturation. RF has seized the initiative and is exploiting the UAF delay cycle.
• Deep Strike Adaptation (Confidence: HIGH): The strike wave is not static; the pivot to Vasilkiv and Poltava demonstrates RF tactical flexibility and a clear intent to interdict both immediate (Kyiv area) and long-term (Central/Western) UAF logistical arteries simultaneously.
• C2 Effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH): RF operational C2 is robust, maintaining the precise schedule and synchronization required for complex, multi-domain operations.

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics, while strained by UAF deep strikes (Ryazan NPZ), are sufficient for the immediate MLD thrust. The immediate risk remains the "Mangas" UAS aerial mining designed to destroy the effectiveness of any delayed UAF armored counter-attack.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is leveraging successful IO to maximize the military effect. The RF IO regarding weeks-long energy repair (20:39Z) is perfectly timed to coincide with the MLD launch, reinforcing the message of systemic UAF failure.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

The forward defense lines at Stepnohorsk are currently facing the 37th GMRB assault without assured follow-on mechanized counter-attack support. This posture requires maximum use of fixed fires and dismounted defense to hold Phase Line ALPHA long enough for any delayed reserve movement to arrive.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Tactical Success: Confirmed clearing of Tykhe by the 67th OMBr. Provides a critical, albeit minor, morale boost and confirms local initiative is not totally suppressed.
• Operational Setback (CRITICAL): Failure to confirm reserve movement initiation. This failure negates the operational strategy.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint remains C2 inertia. All available resources (Class I, V, and VII) are physically present but logistically threatened by the Fastiv strike and aerial mining, and operationally frozen by indecision.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is operating at peak saturation, synchronized with kinetic activities:

1. Destruction of Confidence: Colonelcassad amplifies claims of catastrophic energy infrastructure damage that will take "weeks" to repair, aiming to undermine domestic confidence in the government's ability to cope.
2. Strategic Distraction: TASS reports on US nuclear testing/triad modernization (20:56Z). This is a classic diversionary tactic, attempting to shift high-level diplomatic focus away from the MLD kinetic event.
3. Diplomatic Paralysis: The continued amplification of US political figures (Trump) regarding diplomatic pressure maintains the "Peace Trap" narrative and aims to disrupt NATO coherence during the critical MLD opening phase.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confirmed tactical success at Tykhe offers a small counter-narrative to the prevailing gloom. However, the lack of immediate official communication regarding the MLD and the reserve status, contrasted with confirmed RF kinetic and IO synchronization, risks a rapid collapse of domestic confidence.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The 37th GMRB MLD achieves initial penetration (2-3 km) NLT 062300Z DEC 25. The confirmed UAS deep strike wave successfully targets Vasilkiv and at least one rail power substation in the Poltava/Cherkasy region, ensuring that the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass route experiences severe friction for T+72 hours. The stationary "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve is detected and targeted by long-range fires or "Mangas" systems by T+4h (070100Z).

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - URGENT) The 37th GMRB achieves a deep, rapid penetration (6+ km) facilitated by the KAB strikes. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB (Vostok Group) exploits the Huliaipole flank, confirming the operational envelopment threat. The decisive outcome is that the forward UAF command is paralyzed (due to C2 strike or inertia) and issues a delayed, poorly coordinated movement order for "BRAVO-BLOCK," resulting in the reserve being decisively destroyed in column formation by pre-positioned long-range RF fires or aerial mining (ISDM Zemledelie/Mangas).

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The MLD has initiated. The window for strategic maneuver has closed. The focus is damage control and immediate, decentralized operational action.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The MLD is active. Failure to execute reserve movement must now be treated as a reality. Immediate action must focus on mitigating the resulting breakthrough and securing vital logistics far from the FLOT.

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FIRES (J3/J6): INITIATE DECENTRALIZED COUNTER-BREAKTHROUGH ACTION.

   • Action A (Reserve C2 - IMMEDIATE/EXISTENTIAL): The Commander-in-Chief must ASSUME BRAVO-BLOCK IS STALLED and issue a blanket order for decentralized movement initiative to Brigade/Battalion Commanders (or the MCLC lead) via secure tactical channels, bypassing the paralyzed strategic C2 node. The order must be: "MOVE NOW, USE MCLC, AD HERE."
   • Action B (Defense Maximation - IMMEDIATE): Commit maximum tactical fires (Artillery, MLRS, FPV Drones) to the Stepnohorsk immediate contact zone to trade ground for time. Exploit the confirmed Buk-M3 AD void with high-value deep strikes against 37th GMRB command posts or follow-on columns near the LD.
   • Action C (Flank Response): Immediately commit the Huliaipole holding force to deep defensive mining (additional use of scatterable mines) and prepared ambush positions to counter the confirmed 38th GMRB shaping fires threat.

2. AIR DEFENSE & LOGISTICS (J6/J4): SECURE THE WESTERN CORRIDOR.

   • Action A (AD Divert - CRITICAL): Due to the confirmed UAS vectors on Vasilkiv and Poltava, divert ALL uncommitted mobile AD/EW assets (Bukovel, Gepard, etc.) to defend the Vasilkiv Air Base/Logistics Hub and key rail bridges/power infrastructure along the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro axis.
   • Action B (Logistics Contingency): Accelerate the operational deployment of the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass. Assume Fastiv is a non-viable hub for heavy transit for 96 hours. All Class V/VII resupply for the Southern Front must now utilize the Western/Central alternative corridors.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER PARALYSIS WITH ACTION.

   • Action A (C2/Morale Statement - URGENT): The MoD must issue a statement (NLT 062130Z) confirming that a major RF offensive is underway in Zaporizhzhia, stating that UAF defense is robust, and that "operational reserves are now engaging the threat." Use the Tykhe success (67th OMBr) as immediate proof that UAF remains capable of offensive action.

//END OF REPORT//