Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061830Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT (T-2.5H) // POLTAVA/KREMENCHUK LOGISTICS INTERDICTION // C2 FAILURE CONFIRMED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF operational focus is characterized by deep, synchronized kinetic and information shaping operations, confirming the MLD at Stepnohorsk (T-2.5H) is the kinetic climax.

• Primary Kinetic Axis (Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia): Ground kinetic operations remain in the pre-assault phase. The air raid alert cancellation at 17:57Z may signal the completion of the kinetic shaping fire sequence (KAB saturation).
• Northern/Eastern Shaping Axis: Confirmed RF UAS trajectory toward Sumy (17:38Z) maintains the fixing effort on Northern Command. Sloviansk (Donetsk RVA) suffered a significant KAB strike on high-rise residential areas (17:36Z), indicating RF continues to allocate precision munitions to degrade UAF rear area C2 and civilian morale.
• Deep Battle/Logistics Axis: CRITICAL SHIFT. New UAS trajectories confirmed toward Poltava and Kremenchuk (18:02Z). These targets directly threaten the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass route—the critical logistical spine established following the Fastiv interdiction. The RF intention is now clear: achieve total logistical strangulation prior to the MLD.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

The national 16-hour mandatory power restriction remains the single greatest operational constraint, severely limiting the speed and C2 reliability of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement and the capacity of the logistical bypass hubs now under kinetic attack threat.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Maintaining highly effective cross-domain synchronization, successfully shifting kinetic focus to the newly established UAF logistical bypass. UAF: Defenses at Stepnohorsk are prepared. CRITICAL JUDGMENT: The continued, unconfirmed status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, now hours past the scheduled movement decision point, confirms systemic C2 friction or logistical immobilization (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Operational planning must assume the reserve is severely delayed (NLT 070600Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains centered on achieving tactical penetration at Stepnohorsk while simultaneously paralyzing UAF operational reserves and supply lines.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed UAS flights toward Poltava/Kremenchuk represents a critical tactical adaptation by the RF, demonstrating real-time intelligence capability to identify the UAF logistical reroute (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro) and target the key junctions immediately. This places the strategic rail logistics at maximum risk.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment is showing signs of domestic strain (Kursk refugee payment cancellation, 17:55Z), suggesting UAF deep strikes (Ryazan NPZ, Alchevsk MCC, 17:44Z confirmed BDA) are inflicting fiscal and resource prioritization challenges on the RF rear. However, the immediate RF MLD sustainment remains adequate.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 (kinetic synchronization with IO) is highly effective. UAF strategic C2 regarding reserve movement remains systemically compromised.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Tactical morale remains high, evidenced by successful anti-drone action (17:37Z) and the confirmation of deep strike efficacy (Alchevsk BDA, 17:44Z). Operational Readiness is critically low due to the inertia surrounding the movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and the now-confirmed kinetic threat to the critical logistics bypass.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. C2 Failure: The continued paralysis regarding BRAVO-BLOCK deployment (H+1.5 past the original decision point).
2. Logistical Threat: RF successfully identified and tasked assets against the logistical bypass (Poltava/Kremenchuk).

Successes:

1. Confirmed destruction of military-industrial targets (Alchevsk Metallurgical Combine producing shell casings).
2. Effective counter-drone operations at the tactical level.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, robust AD/EW coverage for the Poltava/Kremenchuk rail junctions. Failure to defend these bypass points will lead to total logistical isolation of Southern Command. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Time compression (T-2.5H) for MLD and the increasing effectiveness of RF logistical interdiction.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (MAXIMUM THREAT LEVEL)

The RF IO strategy is peaking, generating maximum noise and uncertainty across all decision-making layers:

1. EU Dissolution/Aid Fatigue: Narratives amplified by Orban and US sources (TASS reporting Landau comments) aim to cement the perception that European aid is insufficient or compromised, directly targeting long-term UAF sustainment.
2. Internal Instability: RF pivots back to internal corruption (Kolomoisky) alongside pre-existing political splits (Rada comments) to foster distrust in the NCA's focus and integrity during the MLD build-up.
3. Kinetic Intimidation: The Sloviansk KAB strike serves as psychological warfare, demonstrating RF ability to inflict significant, unpredictable damage on major urban centers outside the immediate front.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The General Staff's morale event (17:45Z) attempts to counter the kinetic pressure. UAF must rapidly deploy the narrative gains from confirmed BDA (Alchevsk) and RF domestic strain (Kursk budget cuts) to demonstrate Ukrainian strategic effectiveness and RF weakness.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO successfully leveraged Polish domestic political disputes (Tusk vs. PiS/RF influence) to show political fragmentation within NATO's critical Eastern flank members, compounding the sense of isolation.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z. The 37th GMRB will achieve localized penetration (5-8 km). Due to successful deep strikes on Poltava/Kremenchuk, the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass will be degraded by 50-70% capacity NLT 070400Z DEC 25. BRAVO-BLOCK arrives significantly under-resourced and late, allowing RF to consolidate gains.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational Logistical Collapse and Encirclement. RF achieves a catastrophic strike on the Poltava or Kremenchuk rail junctions (NLT 2000Z), achieving total severing of the central supply route. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB exploits the Huliaipole flank. The Stepnohorsk defenders, logistically starved and lacking reinforcement, are operationally encircled by 071200Z DEC 25.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): COMPEL RESERVE MOVEMENT & DEFEND LOGISTICAL SPINE.

   • Action A (C2 Delegation - IMMEDIATE): Reiterate the Delegate Authority to Move Order to the BRAVO-BLOCK lead Brigade Commander. Deadline for confirmed movement initiation is NLT 1900Z. Accept risks associated with partial route clearance/EW coverage; operational delay is now the higher risk.
   • Action B (Fires - URGENT): Execute Scheduled Suppression Fire (NLT 1830Z). Commit all available deep strike assets to saturate 37th GMRB final assembly areas (west of FLOT) to maximize attrition within the brief Buk AD void window.

2. AIR DEFENSE & LOGISTICS (J4/J6/J3): SHOCK DEPLOYMENT TO LOGISTICAL BYPASS.

   • Action A (AD Surge - CRITICAL): Immediately task and deploy mobile SHORAD/EW assets (e.g., Gepard/Buk/Bukovel-AD) to defend the critical rail junctions and energy substations in the Poltava and Kremenchuk regions. This must be prioritized above all other non-MLD defensive deployments.
   • Action B (Logistics Continuity): Verify that the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass is utilizing all available mobile generation capacity to ensure 24/7 throughput capacity, anticipating the sustained RF UAS strike pressure.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-NARRATIVE: RF STRESS & SUCCESS.

   • Action A (Domestic IO): Immediately launch a unified narrative campaign showcasing UAF strategic successes (Alchevsk BDA, Ryazan NPZ) and highlighting the RF domestic strain evidenced by cutting aid to Kursk refugees. Frame this as proof that RF is financially and logistically hemorrhaging resources.
   • Action B (Peace Trap Counter): Maintain and amplify the NCA's position that the MLD is a desperate attempt to force negotiations, reaffirming that unity and commitment are non-negotiable despite RF IO attempts to amplify internal dissent.

//END OF REPORT//